The Australian Open draw ceremony was held on Thursday afternoon at Melbourne Park and one of the big takeaways is that Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic could go head-to-head as early as the quarterfinals. They are in a section of the bracket opposite Jannik Sinner, with the winner possibly to face Alexander Zverev in the semis. Sinner’s path to a second consecutive title Down Under could feature Alex de Minaur in the last eight and either Taylor Fritz or Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals.
With main-draw action beginning on Sunday, it’s time to break down the 2025 men’s singles field.
Sinner’s quarter
Sinner’s section is absolutely stacked with intriguing first-round matches: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tallon Griekspoor, Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alex Michelsen, Alex de Minaur vs. Botic van de Zandschulp, Matteo Berrettini vs. Cameron Norrie, and Francisco Cerundolo vs. Alexander Bublik. That does not, however, mean that Sinner is in a difficult part of the bracket. The reality is that the world No. 1’s path to a successful title defense is pretty much ideal. He owns De Minaur (9-0 in the head-to-head series), while Tsitsipas and Hurkacz have been far from their peak level of late.
Best first-round matchup — (18) Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tallon Griekspoor
It’s safe to say that previous meetings between Hurkacz and Griekspoor have not disappointed. They have split four encounters at two wins apiece and all four have required final sets—including a five-setter at the 2023 French Open. They most recently squared off last season in Rotterdam, where they were only separated by three tiebreakers (Griekspoor prevailed 6-7(5), 7-6(5), 7-6(4)). What else needs to be said? Another absolute thriller should be in the cards.
Best potential second-round matchup – (13) Holger Rune vs. Matteo Berrettini
Best potential third-round matchup – (11) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (19) Karen Khachanov
Possible surprises – Although Sinner should have the semifinal spot on lockdown, a throng of unseeded players can be expected to make noise this coming fortnight—in the fourth round if not even the quarterfinals. An anticipated third-round showdown between Tsitsipas and Khachanov could end up being Michelsen vs. Gabriel Diallo. Hurkacz vs. Rune could end up being either Griekspoor or Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Berrettini. Bublik and Zizou Bergs are other unseeded floaters to watch in this quarter.
Fritz’s quarter
Additional good news for Sinner is that he avoided Djokovic in his quarter and Alcaraz in his half. Potential semifinal opponents for the top-seeded Italian are Fritz, Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, Frances Tiafoe, Ben Shelton, and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. This is by far the most wide-open section of the bracket—one that is also loaded with mouth-watering first-round matchups. Among them are Mpetshi Perricard vs. Gael Monfils, Rublev vs. Joao Fonseca, Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima, Lorenzo Sonego vs. Stan Wawrinka, and Lorenzo Musetti vs. Matteo Arnaldi.
Best first-round matchup — (30) Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Gael Monfils
The similarities between Mpetshi Perricard and Monfils end with being French. The former is 21 years old and likes to make points as short as possible (preferably just one shot!) with what is perhaps the biggest serve on tour; the latter is 38 years old and does the opposite, happy to play marathon rallies one right after the other. The result will be a wildly entertaining contrast in styles in Melbourne. Mpetshi Perricard goes in as an obvious favorite, but he will have to serve well if he wants to avoid playing into Monfils’ hands.
Best potential second-round matchup – (9) Andrey Rublev vs. (WC) Stan Wawrinka
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Lorenzo Musetti vs. (21) Ben Shelton
Possible surprises — I may end up picking Fritz or Medvedev to reach the semifinals, but neither one is any kind of guarantee. Tiafoe, Shelton, Musetti are all former major semifinalists who have the potential to make it that far in Melbourne (so is Denis Shapovalov, while Stan Wawrinka is a three-time slam champion—but those two don’t project to be factors at Melbourne Park in 2025). Even though Fonseca has to face Rublev in round one, the 18-year-old Brazilian and reigning NextGen ATP Finals winner has a great chance to make a deep run. He will be a trendy pick to upset Rublev.
Alcaraz’s quarter
Alcaraz and Djokovic are on a collision course for the quarterfinals in what would be a rematch of multiple Wimbledon finals, a historic Cincinnati championship in 2023, and an epic gold-medal match at the 2024 Olympics. Grigor Dimitrov, Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda, Jiri Lehecka, and Tomas Machac are among those looking to crash the party. Djokovic probably has a slightly tougher path to last eight, as the 24-time major winner could meet Machac in round three and Dimitrov in round four.
Best first-round matchup — (10) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Fabio Fognini
This pales in comparison to some of the opening matches in the top half of the draw, but nonetheless it could be a fun encounter between two of the tour’s grizzled veterans. The 33-year-old Dimitrov is still going strong at No. 10 in the world, while the 37-year-old Fognini is struggling by comparison but has done well to keep himself inside the top 100 at No. 89. The Italian is a significant underdog, but he remains talented enough to beat almost anyone on any given day.
Best potential second-round matchup – (26) Tomas Machac vs. Reilly Opelka
Best potential third-round matchup – (15) Jack Draper vs. (22) Sebastian Korda
Possible surprises — As we saw at the 2024 U.S. Open (lost to Van de Zandschulp in the first round), Alcaraz is not entirely reliable. Djokovic isn’t either given that he is 37 years old and coming off a slam-less 2024 campaign. Machac and Reilly Opelka are potential third-round opponents for the Serb and he lost his most recent match against both of those guys. Alcaraz has a dream draw through three rounds, but things could get tricky against Draper or Korda at the start of the second week.
Zverev’s quarter
Zverev quietly powered his way to the No. 2 ranking with room to spare last season and his reward for being the second seed is an outstanding draw. Sebastian Baez as his 25-32 seed, Ugo Humbert as his 13-16 seed, and Casper Ruud as his 5-8 seed is nothing less than ideal. Nick Kyrgios would make for an interesting third-round battle, but there is no reason to think that Kyrgios is in any kind of physical or mental shape to advance two rounds. As for Ruud, he has a tough draw with Jakub Mensik likely on the other side of the net in round two, Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round, and Tommy Paul in the fourth.
Best first-round matchup — Jerry Shang vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shang vs. Davidovich Fokina may be the most intriguing all-unseeded contest of the entire first round. It’s only a matter of time before Shang is seeded at slams, while Davidovich Fokina is accustomed to being in the top 32 but has slipped a bit due to injury issues. The Spaniard beat Shang twice last spring (Miami and Madrid), but the 19-year-old has made significant strides in the short time since those two encounters. This should be a match rich in shot-making.
Best potential second-round matchup – (6) Casper Ruud vs. Jakub Mensik
Best potential third-round matchup – (2) Alexander Zverev vs. Nick Kyrgios
Possible surprises — Zverev is a massive favorite to secure the semifinal spot from this quarter, but nobody has more pressure on him heading into this season—at least when it comes to Grand Slams. And when Zverev is faced with a ton of pressure, bad things usually happen. Kyrgios beating him would require a minor miracle, but Arthur Fils would have a realistic shot in the round of 16 and both Ruud and Paul would obviously be in with a real chance in the quarters. Of course, Ruud might not even make it out of the second round. Mensik is poised to make noise in Melbourne, potentially booking a date with Paul in the last 16.
who ya got?