Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Medvedev, Nishikori vs. Carreno Busta

Novak Djokovic has not been seriously tested yet but he will run into a red-hot opponent in Daniil Medvedev at the Australian Open on Monday. Kei Nishikori and Pablo Carreno Busta are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (15) Danill Medvedev

Djokovic and Medvedev will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they clash in round four of the Australian Open on Monday. Both of their previous encounters have gone the way of Djokovic, who got a fourth-set retirement from Medvedev during 2017 Davis Cup action before cruising 6-4, 6-4 two years ago on the grass courts of Eastbourne. Medvedev is a much different player now, up to 19 in the world thanks to three titles last season and a recent runner-up performance in Brisbane. So far in Melbourne he has disposed of Lloyd Harrison, Ryan Harrison, and David Goffin all in easy straight sets.

After achieving perfection through two rounds (d. Mitchell Krueger and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga without even playing a tiebreaker), Djokovic endured a minor hiccup against Denis Shapovalov on Saturday but still coasted 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-0. The 31-year-old Serb has every reason to be the title favorite this fortnight as the world No. 1 and six-time Aussie Open champion. An in-form Medvedev will make him work even harder than Shapovalov did, but Djokovic should be on his way to the quarterfinals.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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(23) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (8) Kei Nishikori

Even on hard courts, Carreno Busta is no stranger to Grand Slam success. The 23rd-ranked Spaniard, who reached the French Open quarters in 2017 on his preferred clay-court surface, made a run to the U.S. Open semis three months later. But success at this Australian Open was not expected, as Carreno Busta slumped bigtime in 2018 and recently lost his second match in Auckland to Jan-Lennard Struff. Suddenly, though, the 27-year-old is through to round four following defeats of Luca Vanni, Ilya Ivashka, and Fabio Fognini.

Up next for Carreno Busta is is–shockingly–a first-ever meeting with Nishikori. Somehow these two veterans have never faced each other, but that drought will end after Nishikori scraped past Kamil Majchrzak (via fifth-set retirement), Ivo Karlovic (in a fifth-set tiebreaker), and Joao Sousa (in straights). Thus the Japanese world No. 9 is 7-0 this year, with a title in Brisbane to prepare himself for these Melbourne festivities. Nishikori raised his level against Sousa and this probably isn’t a favorable matchup for Carreno Busta, who does not have the firepower with which to hit Nishikori off the court.

Pick: Nishikori in 4

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24 Comments on Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Medvedev, Nishikori vs. Carreno Busta

  1. PCB leading Kei by a set and a break; I thought Kei is good enough to beat PCB and never expect this. Kei may be losing this, maybe we are having only the TOP two among the TOP tens to make it to the QF.

    It’s truly unbelievable that the TOP ten from no.3 to no.10 all couldn’t make it past R4, what a weird AO this is. The WTA is not much better.

  2. Kei will be easy meat for Djoko in the QF. From what I see of Djoko in the ongoing R4 match, he isnt really playing that well by his standard; i wont be surprised if Raonic beats him in the SF if Raonic gets there.

    • Raonic could beat him, but he’d have to serve lights out & be clutch in the breakers. Otherwise Djoko would just eat him up (like most big servers).

      • On this quick HC, I doubt Djoko could eat him up. It’ll be a five setter imo; Djoko has to fight so hard to beat Medvedev, more so against Raonic who serves so well.

        • Raonic v Djokovic should be an interesting match if it happens and it’s odds on atm. Kei rarely does well against Djokovic and has had really tough matches so far. Raonic has to be the fave vs Poille if he stays healthy. The Djokovic-Medvedev match was not as easy as the scoreline makes it look; Djokovic was tested in that match.

      • I woke up in time to see Nole win the last set. He was making like his back hurt – that’s not good. I hope it is not bad because he got a long way to go to get to the final, if he is to do that.

        Kei should be fairly worn down in places too. I missed the 5 setter he had to play to pass PCB.

        Raonic could be a very real danger, unless Pouille comes to the rescue. I underestimated Pouille, thinking he’s lose to Coric. And I have not see him play yet this AO. Maybe he’s in giant killer mode like he has been sometime ago in the past. I like Pouille.

        May the strongest man win. (which certainly looks like Rafa at this point!)

    • It depends Sanju. If Rafa struggles to beat Tiafoe and RBA or Tsitsipas to get to the final, then I think he’ll struggle against Djoko and Djoko may then win.

      If Rafa plays aggressive tennis without problem beating his opponents in the QF and SF, then I think he has very good chance of beating Djoko in the final.

      Djoko is playing retrieval tennis these days, but he does step inside the court or moves to the net once he’s able to push his opponent behind the baseline. As with any of Djoko’s opponents, Rafa has to serve well, if not Djoko will take advantage.

    • It depends Sanju. If Rafa struggles to beat Tiafoe and RBA or Tsitsipas to get to the final, then I think he’ll struggle against Djoko and Djoko may then win.

      If Rafa plays aggressive tennis without problem beating his opponents in the QF and SF, then I think he has very good chance of beating Djoko in the final.

      Djoko is playing retrieval tennis these days, but he does step inside the court or moves to the net once he’s able to push his opponent behind the baseline. As with any of Djoko’s opponents, Rafa has to serve well, if not Djoko will take advantage.

  3. I do feel Rafa will beat Tsitsipas should they meet, and an aggressive Rafa will beat Djoko. Interestingly, I do think Tsitsipas playing his varied aggressive game may also beat Djoko.

    Rafa has his way with SHBH players, and he troubled Fed even during Fed’s prime, and Fed at his prime was much better than Tsitsipas now. It takes Fed’s SHBH at its best to beat Rafa, Tsitsipas’s BH is not there yet.

    Peak Djoko had to fight hard against an older Fed to beat him, Djoko is not in peak form now but still playing good tennis, so Tsitsipas will have his chances against Djoko if he’s playing his aggressive all court game.

    Imo, Fed’s toughest opponents are the counterpunchers; for Rafa the big servers/big hitters; and for Djoko, it’s those players who played with varieties.

    I’m quite disappointed with the way Medvedev played; he chose to stay at or behind the baseline to engage in long rallies with Djoko, not very smart game plan as he seemed the more tired of the two during the match and he’s 22 and Djoko 31! It’s Djoko who approached the net more often in the match.

    Medvedev had chances to break serve but squandered them; Djoko was simply the more experienced and more clutch player. I think Raonic will play better than Medvedev, as he’s in good form, confident about his game after giving Zverev a beatdown, his serve is clicking so well at the moment and he’s much more experienced a player than Medvedev.

    • @Lucky,

      Appreciate your comments, as always. I thought Medvedev choosing to stay on the baseline and rally vs Djoker was a strange choice. Really not his game, is it? He did give Djokovic a harder time than the scoreline indicates though.

  4. Nole should beat Kei, though I’m not sure which one is in better condition right now. I think Kei has been through more than Nole. And Nole’s been falling hard on the ground at least twice that I saw. He might have hurt himself – back or whatever. He seemed uncomfortable playing Medvedev.
    Raonic will be another tough match, win or lose.

    Rafa over Tiafoe in 3
    Rafa then will have Tsitsipas or RBA – I can’t see either posing much problem to Rafa.

    Guessing it is a Rafa vs Raonic final or a Rafa vs Nole final.
    Rafa is serving well from what I’ve seen he looks above and beyond everyone — has yet to drop a set and he loses very few games. Clearly better than anyone, imo. Tiafoe has never played Rafa. It will be a great experience for Francis.

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