The Australian Open third round concludes on Saturday, when Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych, Alexander Zverev, and Hyeon Chung are taking the court. Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Mert Ertunga of Mertov’s Tennis Desk preview four of the best matchups and make their picks.
(19) Tomas Berdych vs. (12) Juan Martin Del Potro
Ricky: Both of these guys struggled physically on Thursday. But who didn’t? Those conditions were absolutely brutal. Berdych was basically dying right from the start, but he somehow scraped past Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in four sets. Del Potro cramped near the end of his fourth set against Karen Khachanov before powering past the finish line just in time. The Argentine has been in better form than Berdych over the past year and he also leads the head-to-head series 5-3–with a victory last summer in Cincinnati that featured a third-set bagel. Del Potro in 4: 7-6(2), 6-7(7), 6-4, 6-4.
Mert: As long as Juan Martin is fit, he has the edge in this encounter. I also believe Berdych will be the new David Ferrer in 2018, beginning his downward slide in the rankings–and it starts with this tournament. I see a lot of heavy-artillery rallies taking place and mostly ending with the Del Potro forehand blasting away a winner unless Berdych has already committed the error from being pushed around. Del Potro in 4: 6-2, 6-2, 5-7, 6-3.
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Hyeon Chung vs. (4) Alexander Zverev
Ricky: Chung went undefeated en route to the title at the inaugural NextGen ATP Finals in Milan last fall. Of course, he was aided by the fact that Zverev skipped the event since he also qualified for the real year-end championship in London. As that story suggests, Chung is a talented up-and-comer but not yet on the level that Zverev has reached at just 20 years old. The German should eventually be able to hit Chung off the court, but it won’t be easy for a player who has never done much at Grand Slams. Zverev in 4: 7-6(5), 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.
Mert: I am extremely impressed with Chung’s on-court demeanor and athleticism. To top all that, he is fit! He was maybe the least sweaty guy on that scorching Thursday when everyone else was wilting away. In terms of footwork, endurance, and mental toughness, I give a small edge to Chung. In terms of on-court tangibles–such as backhand-to-backhand cross-court rallies and the ability to put the ball away–Zverev is a step ahead. Chung’s ability to handle Zverev’s first serve is another question mark, because he missed a lot of returns on Medvedev’s serve in the first set of his previous match. Zverev in 4: 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.
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(5) Dominic Thiem vs. (26) Adrian Mannarino
Ricky: Their head-to-head history is surprising; perhaps even shocking. One: it’s hard to believe they have already faced each other six times. Two: Thiem has won all six (yes, the rankings might suggest that; but six is a lot). Three: five of the six have come on hard courts–which should favor Mannarino). The Frenchman almost caught a break by getting to play Denis Kudla instead of Thiem, but the Austrian stormed back from two sets down to beat Kudla in a high-quality battle on Thursday. With second life in Melbourne, Thiem should be able to take advantage against an opponent he owns. Thiem in 4: 6-7(6), 6-4, 7-5, 7-5.
Mert: The only way this match will be a tight one is if Thiem commits an extremely high amount of errors and mentally signs off for a number of games during. But wait…he does just that sometimes, does he not? Otherwise the difference in talent between these two players is substantial. Mannarino suffered three losses agianst Thiem within the last 12 months, all on hard courts. The first set will decide if the Frenchman believes or not. Thiem in 3: 7-5, 6-1, 6-2.
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Julien Benneteau vs. (25) Fabio Fognini
Ricky: This was expected to be Fognini vs. David Goffin, but Benneteau pulled off an out-of-nowhere upset of the world No. 7 on Thursday. Although this is a very winnable match for the Frenchman, stringing together three straight victories Down Under may be too much to ask. Moreover, Fognini looked surprisingly motivated in convincing wins over Horacio Zeballos and Evgeny Donskoy. Fognini in 4: 7-5, 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-2.
Mert: Fognini is a great shot-maker who thrives on using the opponent’s pace to generate his own. Benneteau needs to look to either play more aggressively than he usually does or change the pace a lot. I believe he will try the first option simply because the second would require more reserves in the tank, which he may not have in abundance. This match will not be the center of attention no matter what court and what time slot it gets, and that should favor Fognini who performs better with less distraction. Fognini in 3: 7-5, 6-4, 6-2.
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who ya got?
Benneteau in four Del Po in five Zverev in four Thiem in four
Looks like A Zverev is about to lose again in R3 of a slam; its a hurdle he has to learn to cross before he can do something great.
I do feel his problem is not knowing when to pull the trigger and so allowing his opponent to drag him into a grinding war. Hes the opposite of Shapo imo, who too often pulls the trigger too soon, going for broke all the time.
Kyrgios was a bit similar to Shapo in the past but now he has learned to hold back and strikes when its the right time to do so.
Completely weak finish from Zverev. Just went away. Smashing the hell out of his racket early in the fifth too. I’m not shocked at this upset but I am kind of shocked at how it went down. Well deserved for Chung. Great future for him. Zverev still has a lot of work to do at the slams. Oh by the way, Zverev won five points in the fifth set. This dude has gotta improve his fifth set skills lol. Well done Chung!!
I’m not surprised either; I expect it to go five sets and I know Chung plays well as he won the Nextgen finals last season. I wasn’t impressed with Sasha Zverev during and after the USO and he wasn’t playing all that well at the Hopman Cup so I know he’ll have a hard time here.
True, Zverev was in poor form during the Hopman Cup. He lost four of five matches and was only present in the final because Kerber was in fine form. Let’s see what she can do today against Sharapova. Unfortunately those two meet far too early…
I have a feeling Berdych is going to beat Delpo in four sets. Berdych seems to be playing well, whilst Delpo not so much.
Lucky, it wouldn’t surprise me, either, if Berdych wins. Delpo seems to struggle already. Let’s see if he’s able to claw itself into the match somehow. If he does, we might be in for an epic struggle.
If Berdych wins, then I don’t see how Fed wouldn’t reach at least the semis. There will be no one left to seriously challenge him.
Well, if Delpo plays poorly and still wins, then I don’t see him beating Fed either. Berdych may have better chances when he’s playing so well and if Fed is not playing well.
Lucky, that’s certainly true. I always felt that Delpo is somewhat overestimated because of his win against Fed at the USO. But circumstances are different here…
And Delpo is gone as we speak…
Delpo seems to be lost out there. So far he can’t make any inroads at all…
It’s so annoying but Zverev seems to be unable to handle the best-of-five format. But credit to our expert Mert. Whiehe didn’t predict a Chung win, he sensed that the South Korean could be dangerous. Zverev seems to have wilted away in the 5th set.Is it a physical or a mental problem, and when will Zverev manage to go regularly beyond the first week in a slam? His difficulties make the reliabiity of Rafa/Fed/Novak and Andy, when they are healthy, even more impressive.
The big three plus Murray( to a certain extent) know when to strike and when to hold back; they all have the killer instinct and know when to go for the kill; Sasha Zverev needs to learn how to do that, if not he’ll always have a hard time at the slams if his opponent drags him into a war of attrition.
Well, Zverev sure doesn’t have a natural instinct which tells him when to pull the trigger, and he gets impatient and exasperated when things don’t go his way. That reminds me a bit of the mental problems of young Fed. Everybody saw what a great talent he was, and yet he underperformed regularly. It will be interesting to see if Zverev will learn eventually how to handle frustrating situations.
Who is this “our expert Mert”?
I predicted a Chung win. Read my prediction here again!lol
https://tenngrand.com/daily-picks-2018-1/comment-page-154/#comment-291260
Copied the same below also, if lazy to click the above link!lol
Roger JANUARY 20, 2018 AT 4:13 AM
WARNING:- Ignore if you dare!lol
Hyeon Chung can beat and upset Alexander Zverev in 4 or 5 sets!
or in simple terms CHUNG can get Handsome STUNG!LOL
Going with just the over & +1.5 sets Chung
Roger, Mert previewed the Zverev-Chung match here together with Ricky, lol! He didn’t predict a Chung win, but he sensed trouble for Sascha. Good for you seeing it coming. Did you bet?
As I said below, at the AO website Craig O’Shannessy previewed the match,and he also predicted a Chung win, mainly because of Chung’s baseline prowess, which is a bit surprising, since Zverev normally is a good server.
More physical than mental, I think. Just does not yet have the endurance to go 4 or 5 sets against a tough opponent. Zverev is still very young – and very tall. He will get stronger, both physically and mentally, but he may be a few years off his best. But Hyeon Chung IS a player, no doubt about that. Very tough physically and mentally and not short at 6’2″. Needs a better serve, I think.
Interestingly Thiem now made it further than Zverev. He handles the slams much better than Sascha for quite a while now. While fast courts aren’t his greatest strength he seems to be mentally far more mature than Zverev.
Craig O’Shannessy, the analyst-in-residence of the AO website previewed Zverev vs. Chung – and unike most experts he predicted a Chung win! Interestingly he did so because of Chung’s baseline prowess. Craig said that for most players at the AO the baseline is a bad place to be, which makes some sense on a slick hardcourt. I have to look up Rafa’s baseline statistics at this year’s AO. Unlike most other players he should’ve positive baseline numbers as well. The big question is if this is a recipe for success in seven matches. For Chung it worked just fine today.
Best match I’ve seen from Berdych in a long time