Australian Open Day 7 previews and picks, including Nadal vs. Anderson and Murray vs. Dimitrov

January 24, 2015 Ricky Dimon Predictions 0

Ricky Dimon and Hassan Murad preview and pick four of the best men’s singles matches on Sunday at the Australian Open. Rafael Nadal is expected to prevent yet another meeting between Tomas Berdych and Kevin Anderson.

(14) Kevin Anderson vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Ricky: This is a nightmare matchup for Nadal. Anderson is big guy (6’8”) with a big serve and easy power from the baseline, who wields a clean two-handed backhand and moves well for a man of his size. He’s a poor man’s Tomas Berdych (which obviously doesn’t bode well for Anderson since Berdych is 0-17 in his last 17 matches against Nadal), but he comes into this matchup without the same emotional scarring that Berdych does. The South African has faced Nadal only once, so he is not going into this one knowing he is destined to lose–like he does when he plays Berdych (0-12 lifetime). He also has nothing to lose, having already turned in a stellar Australian Open that includes a rout of Richard Gasquet. In other words, this is going to be extremely competitive–but Anderson won’t win. A much healthier Nadal picked up the pace against Dudi Sela is only picking up confidence with three wins now under his belt in 2015. Nadal 6-7(3), 7-5, 6-4, 7-6(9).

Hassan: Given his huge serve and penetrative groundstrokes, Anderson is probably one of those players Nadal does not really enjoy seeing on the other side of the net. The No. 3 seed, who came into this year’s first Grand Slam with far from ideal preparation, has had a cloud of uncertainty hovering over him. Nadal appeared to have dispelled all doubts about poor form and ill-health by swatting away Mikhail Youzhny in the first round but the tensions in the Nadal camp reached fever pitch during his highly-dramatic and hard-fought five- set win over Smyzcek. The 14-time Grand Slam champion , however, restored order in a convincing win over Dudi Sela. Anderson, on the other hand, has been consistently doing what he does best: dominating his service games and squeezing out sets by virtue of aggressive play. For Anderson, the gameplan is to apply pressure by comfortably holding his service games, thus freeing himself up to play aggressive in the return games. Nadal will aim to move Anderson around as much as possible and the ease with which he was changing the direction of the ball with his forehand against Sela should help him achieve that purpose. This will be the first match in which Nadal’s return game will be tested and he will be eager to make a statement. Nadal 6-4, 7-6 (5), 6-4.

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(6) Andy Murray vs. (10) Grigor Dimitrov

Ricky: Dimitrov is a not-too-disappointing 2-4 in the head-to-head series, with an epic win in the 2014 Acapulco semifinals and a dominant performance at Wimbledon several months later. The other four results, however, were one-way traffic for Murray (including most recently last fall in Paris). There is no reason to complicate things in analyzing this matchup; the bottom line is this appears to be much healthier and much more confident Murray, who in 2014 was just coming back from back surgery. As for Dimitrov, his current form is simply not on par with with the top players. He got bulldozed by Roger Federer in Brisbane and his five-set win over Marcos Baghdatis on Friday was commendable, but far from impressive. Murray 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.

Hassan: Even though Murray leads the head-to-head  series 4-2, Dimitrov’s straight-set win over Murray in last year’s Wimbledon quarterfinals is the most important match of their rivalry to date. While there is little doubt that Murray was far from his best throughout that encounter (as admitted by Dimitrov, himself ), Dimitrov exhibited great maturity in imposing his flamboyant, all-court tennis in the biggest win of his career. The matchup is not particularly favorable for either player, but the diversity in the Scot’s game can enable him to neutralize Dimitrov. The Bulgarian will look to dictate points and capitalize on Murray’s tendency to get tentative in pressure moments. If Murray can guard his second serve well, he should be able to assert his authority in the match. This one has all the potential to be a classic, and while the possibility of an upset win is definitely there, it can be said with conviction that there will be no lackluster performance by Murray, who is keen to regain his best form. While Murray has done a fine job of sailing through his matches without dropping a set (albeit against less than formidable competition), Dimitrov had to show maximum resilience in his five-set tussle against Baghdatis. Murray 7-6, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.

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(7) Tomas Berdych vs. Bernard Tomic

Ricky: I had Tomic in the quarterfinals from the beginning and there is no reason to change it now; not after an awesome performance against Philipp Kohlschreiber in between rock-solid showings against Tobias Kamke and Sam Groth. But this is a scary proposition for the Aussie–and for anyone who is picking him. Along with Milos Raonic, Berdych has been the most dominant player in the entire Australian Open–including Novak Djokovic. While that makes the Czech an obvious favorite, Tomic has never been one to be afraid and there is no reason to be based on the head-to-head. Berdych leads it 2-0, but both matches were competitive four-setters at Wimbledon. At home in Australia, Tomic will have a better chance. Tomic 1-6, 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3, 8-6.

Hassan: Berdych is aiming to reach the quarterfinal stage of the Australian Open for the fifth straight year, but he will have to overcome arguably Australia’s biggest hope for the future. Tomic is enjoying fine form and has already emulated his best-ever performance in his home Grand Slam by reaching the fourth round.  Berdych, with a game well-suited to this surface, has swept aside all three of his opponents en route to the last 16 with little trouble. Having won both of his previous matches against Tomic should give him additional confidence. With an unorthodox game, Tomic strongly relies on denying his opponents any rhythm. In terms of gameplan, Tomic’s backhand slice will be of prime importance against Berdych and he will look to outfox the world No.7 by virtue of the unpredictability and variation embedded in his game. The Aussie, who has three top-10 wins hin his career, is riding on a wave of support from his home crowd and stands a solid chance of reaching his first-ever quarterfinal Down Under. Tomic 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-4.

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Nick Kyrgios vs. Andreas Seppi

Ricky: Kyrgios 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(4).

Hassan: Getting the most notable win of his career must have escalated Seppi’s confidence to unprecedented levels. His young Aussie opponent, however, hardly ever seems to be short of confidence. After pulling the plug on his 2014 campaign after getting a monumental win over Nadal at Wimbledon, Kyrgios is looking to prove the doubters wrong by consistently playing well at the top level. The Australian has been impressive so far in the tournament. He has struck a third-best 72 aces in just three matches and has been effectively using his serve to rattle his opponents. His fearless attitude enables him to battle nerves and his game seems to suit this surface, as well. Seppi was comprehensively beaten in straight sets by Kyrgios in their only career meeting at the 2014 U.S. Open. None of the Italian’s matches this fortnight has been a straight-set affair, but the way he played against Federer was inspiring. Although Kyrgios has been impressive this week, he has not faced an opponent possessing counter-punching and returning skills as good as Seppi’s. This will be much more competitive than last summer’s showdown. Kyrgios 7-6(3), 5-7, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-3.

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81 Comments on Australian Open Day 7 previews and picks, including Nadal vs. Anderson and Murray vs. Dimitrov

  4. vamosrafa,

    It’s nice to read your predictions and analysis of these four matches! I admit to being nervous about Rafa facing Anderson. I never like it when he’s up against a big serving guy. Rafa is going to have to serve extremely well. His ROS will be tested in this match. At least Rafa is familiar with him and knows what to expect. I think Ricky made a good point when he said that Anderson doesn’t have the same psychological scars that Berdy does when he faces Rafa. He can come out there thinking he can win. However, I think Rafa will up his game and get the win in three or four sets.

    This is a different Murray who will meet Dimitrov. I expect Murray to get the win in four sets.

    Berdy is going to have his hands full with Tomic and the Aussie crowd. Berdy has looked great, but he is bumping up against a guy with a funky game and a lot of attitude. I see this going four or five sets and it could go either way. Tomic may just have the edge playing in front of hometown fans. This one could go four or five sets.

    Seppi will need to bring the kind of tennis he played against Fed if he wants to be the dangerous Kyrgios. This one could go the distance and either guy could win it. I think Kyrgios will get the win.

    Reply

  5. Just when one thinks that Rafa is dead and buried in the first set, Rafa turns it around. I did not think Rafa is ever going to break anderson’s serve

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  7. That was tense! I was getting so frustrated with Rafa unable to do anything on Anderson’s serve. But then when Rafa came back from 0-40 down to hold his serve, then he just seemed to be more aggressive to get the break.

    Yay! Rafa wins the first set!

    Reply

  10. Poor Koenig. At the beginning of the match he was talking like he was Anderson’s coach, saying what he needed to do, praising his every shot. Now he is back to the real world and is saying things like, “jaw dropping stuff” at Rafa’s shots, even the run of the mill ones….

    Reply

    • Rafa plays his best tennis when his back is against the wall…….but why have ure back against the wall in the first place?! Gruh….

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  16. RT @FortyDeuceTwits: “Kevin Anderson might be the only person in the world who is relieved to be playing Rafa Nadal and not Tomas Berdych in the fourth round.”

    Well……….you could’ve fooled me.

    Reply

  18. RT @AmyFetherolf : “Why are Rafa’s shorts bedazzled down the side?”

    I don’t get the fuss about the sparkles on Rafa’s shorts, Fed’s shorts had sparkles also but nobody was talking about them. Why not?

    Reply

  21. I just heard a commie finally admit that Rafa is the most loved player ever to play the game. Finally, they are admitting to reality.

    Reply

  25. This was a really good win for Rafa! He figured out where he needed to stand so that he could read Anderson’s serve. Always thinking, always trying to find a way. I think when he came back from 0-40 to hold his serve, that was when the match changed. After Rafa broke Anderson to win the first set, the match was basically over.

    Rafa is not yet playing his best, but it’s great to see him in the quarterfinals. I think his cc backhand is not working that well yet. I wish that I had gone with my instinct and picked Berdy. I felt he was playing well enough to beat Tomic, although not in straight sets. That was surprising. Berdy may have lost to Rafa 17 straight times, but I think he’s going to give Rafa a match. I remember a few years ago when Rafa had to battle him in the quarterfinals. Rafa lost the first set and was on the verge of losing the second set. Somehow he won it and then I remember how he started stepping up to the baseline to hit ROS cc backhand winners. He became much more aggressive.

    Rafa said it himself in his post match interview on ESPN with Pam Shriver, he has to play more aggressive against Berdy. There will be no more easy matches from this point on.

    I think some of us were saying that if Rafa gets to the second week, things might get interesting. Well here we are! I am so happy for Rafa and his reaction when he won was wonderful to see.

    Reply

    • NNYm thanks for the summary. I have been very unlucky in terms of being able to watch rafa’s matches live! today , when I finally was at home to see it, the network went down! I was frustrated. So i just had to follow the score. I will watch it soon and give my take on it. But this is a very encouraging result from rafa especially after overcoming that adversity in set 1.

      Reply

  27. i picked Kyrgios to win in 5 but I want Seppi to win. Not because of the potential rafa-kyrgios semi but because I think Seppi deserves another win here. He has played really well in this tournament. The mental edge still is with Kyrgios though

    Reply

  28. If Muzza doesn’t want to be called a drama queen, why or why does he carry on like that on court: grabbing his body parts, grimacing, glaring at his box….

    RT @BackSwings: “At this point Andy Murray is just angry with humanity for having invented sport.”

    Reply

  29. http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/01/nadal-explains-strategy-changes-against-anderson/53796/#.VMUZHk39nIU

    Rafael Nadal says that adjusting his strategy allowed him to get the upper hand in his fourth-round match with Kevin Anderson. The Spaniard was down 0-40 while serving at 5-5 in the first set, but managed to hold and then broke serve in the next game. He won in straight sets, 7-5, 6-1, 6-4.

    Nadal had had almost no impact against Anderson’s big serving until the 6-5 game, which he attributed to a change in the way he was playing. “I changed completely my position on the return,” said Nadal, who stood further back from the baseline to give himself more time.

    “I was able to have some good returns. One very good one, but then the other ones, just put the ball inside the court and then try to let him think a little bit more than what he was doing until that moment.”

    Poster comment:
    @nicky1 says:

    “When people, including players, say Nadal plays the same style on clay as he does on other surfaces, I ask myself which player plays different styles on different surfaces? All the players have their own style, but what Nadal has is understanding of the game. Nadal is the best player at strategy. He understands the game better than any other player and he is constantly working out how to overcome them and changing his style during a match.

    He is simply the best.”

    Amen!

    Rafa has the best tennis brain in the business, Period.

    Reply

    • true, he has the best tennis mind for tactics and strategies preparing for and adjusting during matches.

      But, I ask you, does he have the grace of a ballerina? Does he have the undeniable beauty of a most-fluid single handed backhand? Does he have the deftness of wit to compliment his opponent later while slipping in the knife? Does he have half the world spell-bound and believing false and half-false myths about him and his godliness?

      Reply

    • You know the game is regressing when simply adjusting court positioning becomes the definition of being aggressive. #BringbackBorg #fanswhoknownothing

      Reply

      • thebeautifulgame,

        I don’t understand your point. I was a huge fan of Borg and Rafa is the modern version of him. They are very similar in style of play.

        Why on earth wouldn’t adjusting court position be an aggressive move? I guess you don’t understand that when you move up closer to the baseline to receive serve, that is being aggressive.

        Your hashtag is also insulting to the people who post here. I always say that if you have to resort to insulting anyone, then you either don’t know anything yourself or just have nothing better to say.

        Reply

      • Court positioning is a VERY minor adjustment most players make from time to time. Any seasoned player will alter his positioning. Nadal as good as stands next to linespeople usually, so when he does move it looks like a very big adjustment. It is not. These players are accustomed to it. In any case, he still doesn’t stand as close as either Federer or Novak, or Agassi did. Does it help him? Yes. But when that is all it takes to call a player aggressive, you know the game is regressing. Attack comes with the intent of risk. Barring a few spare people, none of the guys want to risk anything. Those who grew up as aggressive players have no motivation to do so because the surfaces make it impossible for them; for those who grew up as defensive baseliners, a little of mixing up is all it takes for them to have a field day.
        You want to know what adjustment is? Look at how Borg played at Roland Garros. Then watch his matches at Wimbledon. The difference is night and day.

        Reply

      • Always a good sign when Fedfans start being catty towards Rafa, it means Rafa’s winning! Love it…………

        #Hurts
        #FedererLost
        #RafaIsStillIn
        #FedFansAreWeeping
        #Vamos!
        #Relax

        Reply

  30. The ESPN commentators were talking about how Rafa will change his court position to receive serve. They said that Novak and Fed never change their court position, but Rafa and Murray will do it.

    It is interesting that some see Rafa as a clay court specialist or that old one-dimensional nonsense that people like Bodo have kept going over the years. The truth is that Rafa is able to adapt his game to the surface, the opponent and what is required to win the match. He is always thinking out there. Rafa didn’t give up. He figured it out.

    I really appreciated Rafa’s post match interview with Pam Shriver. She asked him about changing his court position for the ROS, starting closer to the baseline and then moving farther back. Rafa explained that it’s easier to go from an aggressive position to a defensive position than from a defensive position to an aggressive one. I can’t quote all that he said, but once again I marveled at his grasp of the nuances of the game, the details and the ability to change strategy and tactics mid match. He really is brilliant in how he can analyze a tennis match and make these kinds of adjustments.

    I don’t think Anderson was the same after failing to break Rafa in that first set at 0-40 and then getting broken to lose the set. He kind of went away. Rafa just went into cruise control and started dictating the points.

    I just finished watching the other matches. I didn’t want to come on here and check out the score. I wanted to just see it for myself. I really wanted Seppi to win his match after taking out Fed. He seemed to have it all under control until Kyrgios broke him early in the third set. I thought the crowd was insane. I don’t like Kyrgios, don’t like his game, don’t like his attitude.

    I wish that Murray’s on court behavior would change. I have always liked him, but it’s really unappealing to see him cursing and yelling and getting so angry. He finally got tested after having an easy time of it. Dimitrov just gave away that fourth set. Now Murray will have the pleasure of dealing with the crowd when he plays Kyrgios.

    Reply

  31. During the Rafa/Anderson match not once did they mention that Anderson has beaten Djokovic and Murray, but they mentioned that Ferrer beat Rafa at the USO 7 years ago in 2007 when Ferrer was playing against Simon.

    It seems as if beating anyone other than Rafa doesn’t really cut it. It’s not news.

    Reply

  32. I hope and pray Muzza dispatches this Kyrios fellow. I do not want to watch him play. He is too much of an abomination. This has nothing to do with the fact that he beat Rafa, it’s his on court behavior. The boy is rude, un-couth and obviously not well bred. The way he carried on against Seppi yesterday………..I do not want to see that spectacle again.

    No, age has nothing to do with it. There are lots of well behaved 19 year olds out there. If he is the future of the ATP well, golf beckons for me……………

    Reply

  33. I just want Rafa to get the win against Berdy. Then I will think about who he faces in the semifinals. Murray can deal with this guy and his boorish behavior on court. It’s really embarrassing to see this young man cursing on court, yelling at ball boys, screaming like a banshee. I do not like to think that this is the future of the sport of tennis.

    I think Murray and Kyrgios both present problems for Rafa. Murray has the game to give Rafa a battle and he’s playing well now. But Kyrgios is so unpredictable and the crowd will be out of control like they were against Seppi. Murray said that he feeds off the crowd when they are against him. That’s good, because it’s going to be really ugly when he plays Kyrgios.

    I do think that Berdy will give Rafa a tough match. He ‘s got a new coach, has been training very hard and seems to want to find a way to get to a slam final. The problem for Berdy when he faces Rafa is that he’s lost the match in his mind before he even gets on the court.

    Reply

    • Rafa is definitely not losing to Kyrgios..no chance of it happening again..Infact he will give him a good lesson. That’s why I am hoping Rafa gets to meet him.

      Rafa-Murray is a 50-50, that’s why I am worried mainly as Rafa is not at his best and is on the way back.

      When Rafa plays Nick..I don’t expect the whole crowd to get behind Nick. Rafa is very popular. There will be some boorish fans but I expect largely the crowd to be well behaved. However Murray will have a tough time tomorrow with the crowd.

      Reply

  34. Much as I love Ferru I am hoping Kei gets through to meet Wawa. The Kei/Wawa H2H is nicely poised at 2:1 in favour of Wawa but Kei beat Wawa the last time they met, at the USOpen 2014.

    Wawa/Ferru H2H is also nicely poised at 7:6 in favour of Wawa, and Wawa has won the last 3 encounters. I have a feeling Wawa would prefer to meet Ferru than Kei.

    Reply

    • Kei demolished Ferry and thank God for that. Both Wawa and Kei can take it to Novak and that is needed. However I still cant decide who will provide Novak a tougher battle between Stan and Nishi though I do expect Novak to prevail in the end.

      Reply

      • Sanju,

        Well said! I agree that Stan and Kei can at least give Novak a match. Kei is looking really good right now. Seeing him take Ferrer out in straight sets was impressive.

        I think Stan and Kei is going to be a great match. Kei is more than capable of beating him.

        Reply

  36. Kyrgios did abuse the ball boy. I saw him screaming at him during the match. It was appalling. There is no excuse for that kind of behavior at any age from any player. This is a guy who has done nothing yet in this sport.

    That is not entertainment and it’s not professional. It’s bush league. The guy screams like a barbarian and jumps around on the court. It’s disgusting.

    Reply

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