Australian Open Day 2 picks, including Querrey vs. Pospisil and Bautista Agut vs. Thiem

The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick four of the best men’s singles matches on Tuesday at the Australian Open. Spanish seeds Roberto Bautista Agut and Feliciano Lopez are among those in action.

Vasek Pospisil vs. Sam Querrey

Ricky: In terms importance, this could be the biggest match of the day. The draw
should be wide open for the winner to reach the second week. In that case, whoever prevails is likely to be in ideal shape to climb close to or inside the top 30 and be seeded for the remaining slams in 2015 (or at least for Indian Wells, Miami, and the French Open). It also could be the best match of the day. With big serves and forehands, there will be little to choose between Pospisil and Querrey. Based mostly on superior fitness and the fact that he played great at the Hopman Cup, the Canadian should be able to survive if this turns into a prolonged battle. Pospisil 6-3, 6-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.

Steen: These are players with a lot of hard-court ability when on, but both have struggled through down patches in their careers. Pospisil lost to Querrey on grass, but that is a surface that favorites Querrey and the Wimbledon matchup came back in 2012. I think either way this match will not be a straight-set affair. It’s hard to pick a winner, but I feel Pospisil is slightly more skilled and he has played well in warm-up preparation for the Aussie–or about as good as can be expected of him. American fans won’t like to hear it, but I have Vashy through in four tight sets. Pospisil 6-7, 7-5, 6-4, 7-6.

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Dominic Thiem vs. (13) Roberto Bautista Agut

Ricky: If you thought the first day of the Australian Open was bad for Ernests Gulbis, get ready for Tuesday. There is a good chance his best friend on tour loses to his worst enemy. Bautista Agut retired from his first match last week in Auckland, but that was due to illness so you have to assume he will be fine for a tournament at which he made a run to the fourth round last year. Thiem’s issues may be lingering. His offseason was marked by illness and military commitments in Austria. This is not the same Thiem that was on display throughout the 2014 clay-court swing. Bautista Agut 7-6, 7-5, 6-1.

Steen: This match could be fantastic…or it could end in retirement, as there is no way to really tell the form that either player will be in. RBA retired in Auckland with flu-like symptoms and Thiem has been ill recently while also struggling with his fitness. In difficult conditions, I still give the long-term edge to RBA. This is also the slam he has his best-ever result in; plus it’s on a hard court. I don’t feel Thiem is as dangerous on this surface right now in his career, so RBA in four is my pick. Bautista Agut 7-5, 3-6, 6-3, 6-1.

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Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Gilles Muller

Ricky: The oft-injured Muller is in resurgent form, having taken the Challenger tour by storm in 2014. He is now ready for the real thing, as confirmed by his semifinal showing in Sydney. The 31-year-old is also a well-documented force to reckoned with at slams, whereas Carreno Busta–despite a third-round appearance at last summer’s U.S. Open thanks to a favorable draw (Benoit Paire)–is still unproven at these big events. The Spaniard played well enough in Auckland and does not give away many cheap points, so Muller will have to work. But his massive lefty serve should make the difference on a relatively fast hard court. Muller 7-6, 3-6, 7-5, 4-6, 6-3.

Steen: Muller has had a great comeback and he made the semis in Sydney last week. The Luxembourgian has been playing top-40 level tennis for months now and he is especially dangerous on a hard-court surface. PCB, on the other hand, remains a dirtballer hovering around the top 50. This really should be straightforward for Muller, unless he develops heat-related physical problems or PCB can somehow drag things on and wear him out. I don’t sense danger unless it goes five. Big servers are already doing well at the AO and Muller is one of the best around. Muller 7-6, 6-4, 7-6.

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(12) Feliciano Lopez vs. Denis Kudla

Ricky: Tactically, this should be a good matchup for Lopez. What are arguably his two favorite shots? The lefty serve out wide to the ad court and the slice backhand approach down the line. That serve will open the court up to exploit Kudla’s weakness–the forehand. The case is the same with Lopez’s down-the-line slice: also to Kudla’s weaker wing. Still, Kudla moves well and he is an extremely clean ball-striker. If Lopez has dips in serving level at any point, the American will be able to capitalize from the baseline. This won’t be a cakewalk with the Spaniard in questionable form. Lopez 7-6, 4-6, 6-3, 7-6.

Steen: Kudla, the USTA’s Australian Open wild-card winner, hasn’t really done anything remarkable in his career. He remains a fringe ATP player floating between ATP qualies and the Challenger tour. That said, Lopez has some bad losses (Jordan Thompson, Aljaz Bedene) in 2015 and hasn’t won a tournament match in months. With the Spaniard under the pressure of having to defend his top 20 ranking this season and currently in a rough patch, I feel he may well beat himself here. Kudla will have enough ability and fitness to get through in four. Kudla 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6.

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