Australian Open Day 1 picks, including Dodig vs. Karlovic and Gulbis vs. Monaco

The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Steen Kirby of Tennis East Coast preview and pick the best men’s singles matchups on Day 1 of the Australian. This is the first of 13 installments of expert picks during the season’s first Grand Slam.

Ivo Karlovic vs. (32) Ivan Dodig

Ricky: Dodig is 3-0 lifetime against Karlovic, including 1-0 at the Australian Open. The two Croats also faced each other in round one of this event in 2011, when Dodig prevailed 6-4, 3-6, 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-4. He got the best of Karlovic at the 2012 Bratislava Challenger and last year on the indoor hard courts of Zagreb, as well. Still, the 6’11” Karlovic is a dangerous customer every time he takes the court and his last two main-draw tournaments (Basel last fall and Doha earlier this month) featured wins over Tomas Berdych. Dodig has lost his only match this year, to Dustin Brown (who beat Karlovic one round later) in Doha. Karlovic 6-7(5), 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4), 8-6.

Steen: Karlovic has never beaten Dodig and Dodig has only been broken twice in 10 total sets of tennis between the two. However, I’m going with Dr. Ivo based on current form. Dodig looked quite poor in Doha, where he lost 6-4, 6-2 to Brown–another big server. Karlovic’s recently results have been consistently solid. I doubt this will be a straight-set affair, but as long as Karlovic’s serve holds and he can play his way into tiebreakers, I think the good doctor will be clutch to finish the match off. Karlovic 5-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6.

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Juan Monaco vs. (23) Ernests Gulbis

Ricky: Gulbis insisted at the start of last year that he would shelve off-the-court shenanigans and really focus on sustained tennis success. Relatively speaking, he actually managed to accomplish the feat (he only had a few disastrous hiccups on the court, especially at the U.S. Open). The result is a Top 24 seed for the Latvian, who also opened in fine form this season with two wins in Doha prior to a setback against Rafael Nadal. Monaco’s only loss–compared to three victories–to Gulbis has come via retirement, but the world No. 42 was plagued by wrist injury in 2013 and he has not won a match since his Winston-Salem opener in mid-August. Gulbis 6-2, 7-5, 3-6, 6-1.

Steen: This is another matchup in which current form and health favors the player with a negative head-to-head record. Gulbis is just 1-3 against Monaco, but they last met on a hard court back in 2010. Monaco played only one event prior to the Australian Open and it was the Kooyong exhibition, in which he lost both of his matches in straight sets. The Argentine also skipped half of the fall tournaments due to injury at the tail end of last year, while a healthy and decent-looking Gulbis made the quarters in Doha. I have to think Ernie, unless he has a significant mental lapse, will simply come out strong and refuse to make this match much of a question. Gulbis 6-4, 6-2, 6-2.

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Ricardas Berankis vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov

Ricky: This could be a great one between two entertaining shot-makers who are nearing the prime of their careers and have already enjoyed plenty of Melbourne success. Dolgopolov went all the way to the quarterfinals in 2011, winning five-setters over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Robin Soderling in the process. He is a considerable favorite on paper at No. 56 in the world compared to his opponent’s 128th. Berankis, though, has already twice reached the Aussie Open third round and he qualified over the weekend so he has to feeling good about his game. The Lithuanian is comfortable enough at this event to make it a real battle on Monday, but getting all the way over the hump may be another story. Dolgopolov 3-6, 6-1, 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-3.

Steen: Berankis played well in Melbourne last year, making the third round for one of his best results in a very forgettable year of tennis. He did well to qualify this time with a trio of easy, straight-set wins. However, Dolgopolov–who also had a forgettable 2013–seems to be in improved form this January. He is coming off a quarterfinal in Sydney and he pushed David Ferrer to three sets in Doha. Now working with Fabrice Santoro as his coach, the shot-making Ukrainian should be able to make his way through this match and get things done in four sets even if he struggles with consistency at times. Dolgopolov 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3.

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Marcos Baghdatis vs. Denis Istomin

Ricky: Istomin is 0-2 in his career against Baghdatis, but neither man is the same since meetings in 2009 and 2010. Quite simply, Istomin is much better and Baghdatis is a whole lot worse. Both players have enjoyed past success at the slam level, but the Uzbek’s has come more recently while Baghdatis’ 2006 run to the Australian Open final seems like more than a career ago. The slumping Cypriot may have his priorities centered on family as opposed to tennis these days. Really the only good news for Baghdatis is that it will merely be hot on Monday, as opposed to absolutely scorching starting on Tuesday. Istomin 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-2.

Steen: Although Baghdatis is 2-0 lifetime against Istomin, both of their matches went the distance. Coming off injury issues and a poor 2013, the former Aussie Open finalist has to be considered a bit of an underdog against the steady Istomin, who serves well and reached the quarters in Sydney. This should be a close match and I could see it going either way, but fitness and form favors Denis the Menace. Baghdatis has played only one tournament match this season, having lost in the first round of Auckland. Istomin 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4.

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