Turn your frown upside down because the Happy Slam is one week away. Some players are already getting into major-tournament mode in Melbourne, either practicing at the Australian Open venue or participating in the Kooyong Classic. Others, however, are fine-tuning their games at events in Auckland and Sydney. Among those looking for significant match practice this week are David Ferrer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tommy Haas, John Isner, and Jerzy Janowicz.
Heineken Open
Where: Auckland, New Zealand
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $514,345
Points: 250
Top seed: David Ferrer
Defending champion: David Ferrer
Draw analysis: Ferrer is the three-time defending champion of this event and he has won it four times overall. The draw certainly has not hurt the Spaniard’s chances of bagging a fifth Auckland title this week. Almost every challenger in the top section of the bracket prefers clay over hard courts and Ferrer has the added benefit of an in-form Gael Monfils withdrawing after his runner-up showing in Doha. Monfils had been a potential semifinal opponent for Ferrer and quarterfinal adversary for Kevin Anderson, who has a first-round bye before facing either Marcos Baghdatis or Daniel Brands. The second semi spot in the top half alongside Ferrer could not be more wide open.
Like Ferrer, Philipp Kohlschreiber is no stranger to Auckland success. The German is 22-7 lifetime at the tournament with a title in 2008, a runner-up finish (to Ferrer) in 2013, and he has lost prior to the quarters only once in nine appearances. Pablo Carreno-Busta in the first round may be a significant roadblock, but Isner—Kohlschreiber’s nearest seed—is dealing with an ankle injury. Thus the door could be open for Kohlschreiber to go up against either Tommy Haas or Benoit Paire in the semifinals.
First-round upset alert: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over (8) Robin Haase. Haase enjoyed a slightly superior 2013 season, but he was dealt a difficult draw last week in Brisbane and got blown out in his opener by Grigor Dimitrov. Garcia-Lopez showed signs of life last fall with a runner-up performance in St. Petersburg and he advanced one round in Chennai before succumbing to the fourth-seeded Paire. If the Spaniard’s one-handed backhand is clicking, Haase could be in trouble.
Hot: Daniel Brands, Michal Przysiezny
Cold: Kevin Anderson, Marcos Baghdatis, Igor Sijsling, Horacio Zeballos
Semifinal predictions: David Ferrer over Kevin Anderson and Philipp Kohlschreiber over Tommy Haas
Final: Ferrer over Kohlschreiber
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Apia International
Where: Sydney, Australia
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $452,670
Points: 250
Top seed: Juan Martin Del Potro
Defending champion: Bernard Tomic
Draw analysis: Other than Jerzy Janowicz, who was guaranteed a place at the bottom of the bracket as the No. 2 seed, just about every big hitter with an imposing serve and/or forehand found himself in the top half of the bracket. Del Potro’s path to the title match could feature Nicolas Mahut, either Vasek Pospisil or Sam Querrey, and then Tursunov, Marin Cilic, Denis Istomin, or Lukas Rosol. Aggressive, offensive players such as Radek Stepanek and Samuel Groth (who square off in the first round) are also lurking. Cilic and Istomin may collide in the second round for a rematch of an entertaining three-set battle last week in Brisbane, won by Cilic.
2012 finalists Jarkko Nieminen and Julien Benneteau have more favorable draws in the bottom half and are on a collision course for the semifinals. Janowicz is a formidable foe, but he is making his 2014 debut after withdrawing from the Hopman Cup due to a foot injury. Fellow seeds Andreas Seppi and Marcel Granollers are by no means daunting. Watch out for defending champion Bernard Tomic, who should be an unseeded favorite against Granollers in the opening round before a possible date with Nieminen. Janowicz awaits a potentially taxing opener against Alexandr Dolgopolov or Chennai runner-up Edouard Roger-Vasselin.
First-round upset alert: Sam Querrey over (5) Vasek Pospisil. In a matchup featuring similar playing styles with big serves and forehands, breaks of serve will come at a premium. This is a dangerous opening match for Pospisil no matter what, and it does not help that he retired due to a back problem in Saturday’s Chennai semifinals against Stanislas Wawrinka. Querrey’s 2014 campaign, meanwhile, got off to a decent start in Brisbane with a win over Tursunov followed by a tough three-set loss to Marinko Matosevic.
Hot: Juan Martin Del Potro, Dmitry Tursunov, Vasek Pospisil, Marcel Granollers, Nicolas Mahut, Joao Sousa
Cold: Marin Cilic, Bernard Tomic, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Matthew Ebden
Semifinal predictions: Juan Martin Del Potro over Denis Istomin and Jarkko Nieminen over Julien Benneteau
Final: Del Potro over Nieminen
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
Who decides which players are hot or cold? I only ask this because Del Potro and Tomic have yet to play a single match this year.
ME :bowdown:
in the first week or 2 of every year, it’s all based on performance the previous season (with emphasis on the more recent fall tournaments–which is why Federer was not “cold” last week).
No genuine Slam contender plays a tournament the week before a Slam…..
Just saying.
Eventhough Fed lost to Hewitt yesterday, don’t count him out at the Aussie Open…he could make the Finals. As for warm-ups, I like Kohl and DP.
^^you cannot be serious! Hewitt making the finals at Oz 2014? Pull the other one…….
Sorry @scoot, misread your comment, of course you meant Fed, not Hewitt. Yes fed could make the finals if he avoids Berdych, Tsonga, Delpo, Muzza, Nole, Rafa, Delbonis….
Kohl is a solid pick in Auckland
I find it strange that anybody should base their predictions in the new year based on a player’s fall performance. The fall tennis season has often been called the silly season in tennis when unpredictable things can happen. Clearly what happens then cannot be taken as a harbinger of things to come. Usually top players who did well in the meat of the season don’t do so well in the fall. Even Djokovic after his extraordinary performance up to USO in 2011 faded out in the fall. But Rafa fading out in fall 2013 after his extraordinary season has been taken by many as a sign that Djoker has rediscovered his A game and hunger and consequent superiority over Rafa!!!
At this time of the year I have no idea who will win more slams or end the year at no. 1 but I think it likely that it would be someone from the trio of Rafa, Djoker and Murray and this is based on their performance over a period of years, their performance last season, their age and it is not based on their fall performance.
who is basing their predictions of someone’s fall performance?
well Ricky,the above poster has a point. What reasons beyond his extraordinary fall performance are there to justify djokovic as an ‘obvious favourite’?
3 straight Australian Open titles.
Hope this helps.
I have modified my post ! so address that now… 3 straight Aus open titles can make him the favourite for Aus open but howcome the YE no.1?
it only makes him the favorite for the AO.
he’s the favorite for YEN1 because 2 Grand Slams, 6 Masters 1000s, and 1 year-end championship are on hard courts.
lol, to be honest, I don’t think this is good enough logic. So going by this logic, djoker will be the favorite for YE no.1 for the next 4-5 years?? because we all know we will be having 6 masters, 2 slams and 1 year-end championship on hard court every year !
Despite missing Australian Open, Rafa was able to end the year as no.1 !! without going into any deeper analysis, I think this point alone has more weight !
Both arguments seem fair to me
*obvious favourite to end the year as no.1
vamosrafa,
I agree with you. I can see Djoker being the favorite to win the AO, but I do not see the basis for him ending the year at #1.
thanks for your support NNY.. yes, I think it’s fair to have djoker as favourite for Oz open but YEN1, naaa, I don’t see any solid reasoning behind that one.
I have no clue why people are not giving enough importance to rafa’s sick run on the hard courts last year. He was insanely good ! he beat everyone out there and even won CINCINNATI !! He did what even federer has never done in his prime: win montreal,cincy,USO back to back.
People seem to have assumed that rafa’s won’t be able to pull off a similar run this year … who would have guessed Nadal would win 3 masters and 1 Slam on hard courts when rafa returned in Feb and lost to Zeballos.
His knee is responding better than ever at the moment, mentally he is in an awesome frame of mind and his self-belief on every surface is right up there.
Unless I hear better justifications for having djoker as the obvious favourite for YEN1, I think I am pretty clear on the point that rafa is AT LEAST a joint favourite for YEN1.
If Djoker is the obvious fave for AO because he won 4 AOs, 3 consecutive then how come so many are predicting Djoker for RG based on the fact that the margins between him and Rafa were small last RG. even though Rafa has an awesome record at RG.?
The last time these two played at AO, the margins between them were even more small. So how come Djoker is the fave for AO and many are tipping him for even RG and yen 1?
In fact even Ricky was predicting Nole to win over Rafa on clay based on his beating Rafa at 2 clay Masters in 2011.assuming that the “dominance” on clay was permanent even though Doker did not win RG.
But how come based on Rafa beating Nole in Masters and USO last year, Ricky doesn’t think this is a permanent superiority of Rafa over Djoker on hard courts?
If you would like to mention Djoker’s stupendous fall run, really the fall run is to be discounted. Besides Rafa too beat Nole on clay everywhere they met in 2012 and at RG 12 and RG 13 which is far more impressive than Djoker’s fall run. Yet Rafa’s superiority on clay is suspect but Djoker’s on hardcourt is not?
Rafa’s superiority on clay is not suspect by anyone who follows tennis
I actually agree with holdserve regarding the AO. Rafa was two games from winning the 2012 AO, and that was after six consecutive losses to Djoker in 2011. He found the answers in that match and would implement the changes in subsequent matches in the clay court season. We all know how that turned out!
I also agree that the margins between them at the AO are extremely small. Rafa is now playing even better than he was in the beginning of 2012, the knee seems to be healthy and has just won Doha. That all augurs well for his chances at the AO.
I also agree with vamosrafa’s point that people are assuming that Rafa’s performance on hard courts in 2013 was a one-off, that he cannot possibly repeat it. If his knee is healthy, I don’t see any reason why he can’t continue with his great success on hard courts.
Based on what I saw in Doha, with Rafa not yet even in his best form, his aggressive play and outstanding movement on the court indicate that he should be primed and ready for a great run at the AO and all the other hard court tournaments.
It’s a no-brainer that winning breeds confidence, especially for Rafa. With all his success last year, even winning the Summer Slam to cap off an extraordinary comeback, there is no reason to think he will not feel mentally strong and supremely confident. If going without a title during the fall hard court swing was a little disappointing although not really surprising, winning this title in Doha for the first time will give Rafa some additional confidence and good feelings as he prepares for the AO.
We can never know for sure how things will play out in any given tennis year. But I think Rafa has an excellent chance to be year end #1 again.
In Doha, Rafa said for the first time in a long time he is playing without pain. I leave it to you good people to make what you will from that, especially regarding his title chances in 2014. I have already made my predictions……
#RafaSlam
#CalendarSlam
Nole seems to be keeping his powder dry at the mo. Interesting. Have no expectations of Andy at AO too soon. But he too, hopefully, will be playing without pain.
I take that comment from Rafa as quite significant. We know that last year he said there was still some pain but that he could play. We saw what happened when he got to Wimbledon. Rafa is always honest when it comes to his knees.
I am not at all surprised by Rafa’s comment after seeing his matches at Doha. As I said in another post when I summed up my impressions of him there, his movement was simply phenomenal. I think that’s the best he’s moved in a few years. He’s gotten some speed back in his legs. He could run down almost all of the drop shots and that’s something he had difficulty doing last year.
You can sense when Rafa is playing freely. That’s the way he looked at Doha. Even though he was still rusty and working on his game, he was running all over the place.
I don’t like to do predictions this early, but I have already said that I think Rafa is a co-favorite with Djoker to win. We will have to see how the draw shakes out, but I am feeling good about Rafa’s chances. I already said that if he gets to the final and faces Djoker, he is not losing!
I also sincerely hope that Andy will be playing pain free this year. I did see his match with Mayer. He was looking pretty good there for a while, up a set and a break. He just needs match play now.
Ricky in 2012 you predicted Nole win over Rafa on clay simply because Nole had won 2 clay Masters in 2011. And other writers are even more quick to assume any loss by Rafa to Nole is a predictor of all future matches but any loss by Nole to Rafa only proves that Nole did not bring his A form . And this claim that Nole was not at his best when he lost is not just for hard courts but also for clay!! He lost at Monte Carlo last year because of his grandfather’s death. But Rafa lost this year at Monte Carlo because Nole is superior on clay. Nole lost the rest of the Masters and RG this year because his ankle was twisted or his coach died or something.
And tennis-x has actually predicted that Rafa won’t win a slam this year with Nole at yen1 and Delpo at 2!!!!! And all this based on Nole’s unbeaten run in the fall and Delpo’s “great” performance throughout the year ( beating Nole at IW and challenging him at Wimbly and beating Rafa at Shanghai.) And Bodo wonders how Nole despite his fantastic fall run ended at no. 2 and thinks this can only be answered by the computer completely overlooking the fact that Rafa had won 2 slams and 5 Masters to Djoker’s just 1 slam, 2 Masters and 1 WTF. And of course ITF crowned Djoker as the Champion based on criteria and calculations not made public ( unlike ATPs ranking which is determined by transparent calculations).
I am tired of pundits discounting the talent and skills of Rafa as well as his performance even on clay. He is a “clay courter” because of his stupendous performance on clay despite having more non clay slams than all active players except Fed and Nole., But despite his awesome clay performance, he is inferior to Nole on clay who is the “greatest” hardcourter..
I hope Rafa does indeed do the calendar slam this year. That will force the writers to be more creative in discounting Rafa though I have no doubt they will continue to discount him..
If there are no major injuries Rafa or Nole-wise, we can expect the YEN1 to be a close affair between them. It will depend in part on whether Nole can be closer to 2.0 vs 1.5. Lately (last year or so) he’s closer to 1.5 more often. I expect Rafa to try his best to have a stellar year as every year now he does not take longevity for granted.
Same for AO… margins are small. RG… no need for a comment. Wimbledon? Between Andy and Rafa perhaps? USO: tough to call right now but top three should have a good chance, and depending on how Andy plays over the summer, maybe again between Nole and Rafa?
These are not predictions, just what seem to me reasonable expectations from all we know at the moment.
Indian Wells and Miami could be huge. You can expect Nadal to dominate the clay 1000s, Djokovic to dominate the fall 1000s, and maybe a slight edge to Djokovic in Montreal and Cincinnati–which will also be huge. Indian Wells and Miami (if Nadal plays) seem like 50-50 tournaments that could swing the pendulum.
yeah…djo’s fall swing acts as a neutralizer to rafa’s clay dominance. However, one thing needs to be kept in mind… Murray was absent from the fall swing last year ! Andy is DEFINITELY capable of beating djokovic multiple times in the fall swing.
Though they are usually not talked about when discussing YEN1 250 and 500 events can play a crucial role , given how thin the margins are between the two men.
Last year djokovic earned 1000 points from 500 events and he did not play any 250 event… Rafa earned 1725 ! Difference= 725 which was almost the difference between them by the end of the year… Rafa will be playing Oz and miami (I hope so) this year so opportunities will be great !
Rafa already has a 250-event to his name in 2014 😉 he will almost certainly earn 750 more points in the south american events before IW !! so that’s a nice 1000 points cushion…
I had forgotten that _perhaps_ grass will now continue to be problematic for Rafa. _perhaps_ because maybe his knees will suffer less on grass than last year. And won’t there be an extra week before Wimbledon?
chloro , there will be three weeks between RG and wimbledon from 2015 onward…not this year.. I hope this new treatment and rafa’s modified backhand technique will allow him to play without discomfort on grass..he really is a big force on grass ..
vamos,
thank you for reminding me re 2015 onward. I have the same hopes for Rafa’s knees, don’t we all?, … that he can again bend them as deep as needed and as he used to, at Wimby matches. Then he is just about the biggest force on grass.
Rafa GIF – https://tenngrand.com/best-of-the-day/
#YoureWelcome
Tennis-x predictions are not to be taken seriously. Their bias against Rafa is well known. So I am not surprised that they would predict that Rafa won’t win a slam this year. It’s actually laughable, but understandable as the site is heavily pro-Fed and they want anyone to stop Rafa from getting closer and closer to 17 slams.
Pete Bodo is also a Rafa hater. Once in a great while, he will actually write something halfway decent about Rafa, but at the core he’s someone who has never really gotten him. His loss.
I think the odds are reasonable. Djoker would be the favorite given that he has won four AO’s. But Rafa is the deserved second favorite. We know that sometimes the draws can make things interesting and there are surprises, but it could well come down once again to Rafa and Djoker in the final.
Why should Djokovic’s fall run last year be discounted?
the argument is because it is the post-US Open swing, the most worthless time of the season.
but when the performance is THAT dominant, it has to be noted.
He went 17-1 post 2012 USO. Only one more loss than 2013 post-USO.
#NothingNew
Discounted somewhat (not ignored) because mostly indoors on fast low bounce courts.
I do not think Djoker’s Fall run should be discounted, it should just be taken into context……
Then why don’t we discount but not ignore Nadal’s wins over anybody on clay because of slow high bounce courts?
Also, worthless how? Because there are no more majors?