The U.S. hard-court summer gets underway this week with the final installment of the Atlanta Open, while the post-Wimbledon clay swing is still going strong in Umag and Kitzbuhel with the Paris Olympics on the immediate horizon. Even though these three tournaments conflict with the festivities at Roland Garros, they still boast an impressive list of players. Among those in action are Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, Denis Shapovalov, Andrey Rublev, Lorenzo Musetti, and Dominic Thiem.
Here are my previews and picks for this week’s ATP events.
Atlanta Open
Where: Atlanta, Georgia
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $756,020
Points: 250
Top seed: Ben Shelton
2023 champion: Taylor Fritz (not playing)
Draw analysis: The top half of the Atlanta bracket is especially strong, home to Shelton, Shapovalov, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Jordan Thompson, Borna Coric, and Jerry Shang. Intriguing first-round showdowns include Davidovich Fokina vs. Arthur Cazaux, Shapovalov vs. David Goffin, and Coric vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis. Shelton vs. Shapovalov is a potential quarterfinal pairing and would be a rematch of the recent Wimbledon third round, won by the American in five sets. However, Shelton’s opener will likely be against Shang–who beat him in both Atlanta and Washington, D.C. back-to-back last summer.
On the other side of the draw sits Tiafoe, who picked up some much-needed momentum by pushing eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz to five sets at the All-England Club. Tiafoe could open with Aslan Karatsev in round two before possibly running into Brandon Nakashima in the quarters. As for a struggling Adrian Mannarino, the No. 2 seed, he will likely kick off his week against 2023 Atlanta runner-up Aleksandar Vukic.
Hot: Jordan Thompson, Brandon Nakashima
Cold: Adrian Mannarino, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Aslan Karatsev, Mackenzie McDonald
Quarterfinal predictions: Ben Shelton over Denis Shapovalov, Jordan Thompson over Arthur Cazaux, Brandon Nakashima over Frances Tiafoe, and Lloyd Harris over Aleksandar Vukic
Semifinals: Shelton over Thompson and Nakashima over Harris
Final: Shelton over Nakashima
Plava Laguna Croatia Open
Where: Umag, Croatia
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 579,320 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Andrey Rublev
Defending champion: Alexei Popyrin
Draw analysis: Rublev has won the Umag title before, and he did so as a lucky loser. Fast forward seven years and the Russian certainly isn’t a lucky loser now; in fact, he is the top seed. However, Rublev heads into this week in a significant slump and can’t be considered the tournament favorite. He may not even make it out of the quarterfinals, where potential opponents are Tomas Machac, Thiago Monteiro, Fabian Marozsan, and Alexander Shevchenko. The top half of the bracket also includes No. 4 seed Francisco Cerundolo.
The other side of the bracket is especially intriguing with the presence of Musetti and Mariano Navone. Musetti is coming off a semifinal run at Wimbledon; Navone lost in the Bastad quarterfinals this past week after a three-hour and 59-minute battle against Rafael Nadal. Musetti and Navone are on a collision course for the quarterfinals, with the winner possibly to face Holger Rune or Luciano Darderi.
Hot: Lorenzo Musetti, Mariano Navone, Tomas Machac, Duje Ajdukovic
Cold: Andrey Rublev, Holger Rune
Quarterfinal predictions: Tomas Machac over Andrey Rublev, Francisco Cerundolo over Lorenzo Sonego, Luciano Darderi over Fabio Fognini, and Lorenzo Musetti over Flavio Cobolli
Semifinals: Machac over Cerundolo and Musetti over Cobolli
Final: Musetti over Machac
Generali Open
Where: Kitzbuhel, Austria
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 579,320 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Sebastian Baez
Defending champion: Sebastian Baez
Draw analysis: Thiem is making his final appearance in front of the home crowd in Kitzbuhel before retiring at the end of 2024. The 30-year-old, who captured the title in 2019, has been unable to come all the way back from wrist surgery in the summer of 2021. Given his own struggles and the draw, he will be hard pressed to make a run in his swansong. Bastad quarterfinalist Thiago Agustin Tirante is up first and No. 1 seed Sebastian Baez would be next. The top half of the draw also features Bastad champion Nuno Borges and No. 7 seed Roberto Carballes Baena.
Nowhere is the bracket tougher, though, than at the very bottom. Second seed Alejandro Tabilo has been on fire this summer, but his opener will likely come against Matteo Berrettini–who lifted the Gstaad trophy on Sunday. Solid clay-courters Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Sebastian Ofner, and Yannick Hanfmann could also be factors on that side of the bracket.
Hot: Sebastian Baez, Alejandro Tabilo, Sebastian Ofner, Nuno Borges, Matteo Berrettini, Thiago Agustin Tirante
Cold: Dominic Thiem, Laslo Djere, Marton Fucsovics
Quarterfinal predictions: Sebastian Baez over Roberto Carballes Baena, Facundo Diaz Acosta over Lukas Klein, Tomas Martin Etcheverry over Laslo Djere, and Alejandro Tabilo over Sebastian Ofner
Semifinals: Baez over Diaz Acosta and Etcheverry over Tabilo
Final: Etcheverry over Baez
who ya got?
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