“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.
The era of four tournaments during this week on the calendar lasted all of one year. Umag has moved to a later date in July, but there are still three events on the schedule. While clay-court action resumes in Bastad and Stuttgart, the grass-court “season” continues—and ends—in Newport. Tomas Berdych is the highest-ranked player in action at the top of the Bastad draw, Tommy Haas leads the way in Stuttgart, and the American duo of Sam Querrey and John Isner are seeded first and second in Newport. As post-slam weeks go, this is certainly better than average.
Campbell’s Hall of Fame Tennis Championships
Where: Newport, Rhode Island
Surface: Grass
Prize money: $455,775
Points: 250
Top seed: Sam Querrey
Defending champion: John Isner
Draw analysis: With a weak crop of seeded players and a deep contingent of unseeded floaters, just about everyone has a chance at the season’s final grass-court event. That includes Nicolas Mahut, who just captured his first career ATP title last month on the grass courts of ‘s-Hertogenbosch. Mahut, who opens with Rhyne Williams in a rematch of a recent Queen’s Club first-rounder, could face Querrey in round two. Potential semifinal opponents for either Querrey or Mahut include Kenny De Schepper and Igor Sijsling. De Schepper is coming off a surprise run to the last 16 at Wimbledon.
At the bottom of the bracket, Isner and countryman Ryan Harrison are set for their sixth meeting—fourth in 2013. They faced each other in the Sydney second round (Isner’s opening match after a bye), the Houston first round, and the French Open second round. It may not get any easier for the winner with either James Blake or Adrian Mannarino (a fourth-round finisher at the All-England Club) in the second round and possibly Lleyton Hewitt in the semis. Hewitt begins against fellow Aussie Matthew Ebden before a potential all-Australian quarterfinal with Marinko Matosevic.
First-round upset alert: Jack Sock over (6) Marinko Matosevic. Matosevic is just 10-18 at the ATP level this season and he is coming off first-round losses in Eastbourne and at Wimbledon. Sock got blown out in his first qualifying match at the All-England Club, but he rebounded to win the Winnetka Challenger on Saturday (he also finished runner-up in doubles). The American is inexperienced on grass, but his power game can work well on it. He should be confident in the wake of his recent Winnetka result and he almost always plays his best tennis at home in the United States.
Hot: Igor Sijsling, Kenny De Schepper, Jack Sock, Adrian Mannarino
Cold: Marinko Matosevic, Yuichi Sugita, Illya Marchenko, Ivo Karlovic, Matthew Ebden
Semifinal predictions: Sam Querrey over Igor Sijsling and Lleyton Hewitt over Denis Kudla
Final: Hewitt over Querrey
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Mercedes Cup
Where: Stuttgart, Germany
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 410,200 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Tommy Haas
2011 champion: Janko Tipsarevic (not playing)
Draw analysis: Another week, another terrible draw for Haas and Ernests Gulbis. They just squared off in the second rounds of both Munich and Halle—matchups that would have been worthy of the semis and possibly even the final at each event. The story is the same in Stuttgart, where Haas will have to open against the most dangerous unseeded player in the field if Gulbis gets past Marcel Granollers in the first round. A relatively difficult section also features Fabio Fognini in the same quarter and Jeremy Chardy in the same half.
Except for Gael Monfils lurking nearby, second-seeded Philipp Kohlschreiber has a much more favorable path at the other end of the bracket. Kohlschreiber failed to capitalize on an opportunistic Wimbledon draw when he retired in the first round. If he is 100 percent, the German should storm through his opener before likely running into Monfils in the quarters. Meanwhile, Benoit Paire’s road to the semifinals could include Nikolay Davydenko and either Lukas Rosol or Thomaz Bellucci.
First-round upset alert: Albert Montanes over (8) Martin Klizan. Klizan still registers at 36th in the world (as of Sunday), but he is on the way down after peaking at No. 26. Many of points are coming from last year (U.S. Open fourth round, St. Petersburg title) and he is horrendous 8-16 for his 2013 campaign. The Slovak’s game is best-suited for clay, but so is that of his opponent. Montanes triumphed on the slow stuff in Nice two months ago and he also played relatively well in Monte-Carlo, Rome, and at the French Open. Klizan and Montanes are 1-1 against each other on clay already this season, so something has to give.
Hot: Tommy Haas, Jeremy Chardy
Cold: Florian Mayer, Martin Klizan, Marcel Granollers, Nikolay Davydenko
Semifinal predictions: Tommy Haas over Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Gael Monfils over Thomaz Bellucci
Final: Haas over Monfils
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SkiStar Swedish Open
Where: Bastad, Sweden
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 433,770 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Tomas Berdych
2012 champion: David Ferrer (not playing)
Draw analysis: With David Ferrer absent, Bastad may be wide open (Ferrer’s last five appearances read title, semifinal, semifinal, final, title). This is the event at which we last saw Robin Soderling two years ago, and now a different big hitter—Berdych—stands tall at the top of the bracket. The unseeded crop at this tournament is incredibly soft, especially in Berdych’s quarter of the draw. As such, he should have no trouble reaching the semis before a possible showdown against a resurgent Tommy Robredo.
No. 2 seed Nicolas Almagro did well to avoid Robredo and would instead face a relatively out-of-form Juan Monaco in the last four if both clay-lovers advance that far. Almagro, however, may have to go up against Wimbledon quarterfinalist Fernando Verdasco in the last eight. Monaco awaits a likely opener against Paolo Lorenzi and he is on course for a quarterfinal collision with Grigor Dimitrov. Meanwhile, Verdasco’s second match in Bastad could come against Sergiy Stakhovsky…yes, the same Stakhovsky who toppled Roger Federer at Wimbledon and ended the Swiss’ Grand Slam quarterfinal streak. Of course, the Ukrainian is far less formidable on clay than he is on grass.
First-round upset alert: Carlos Berlocq over (7) Horacio Zeballos. This would be an upset only according to ranking and seed. In fact, Zeballos would have done well to ride off into the sunset after upsetting Rafael Nadal to win the Vina del Mar title back in February. Since the end of the Golden Swing, the Argentine is a shocking 4-12. Berlocq has also been incredibly disappointing (even on his preferred surface of clay), but his confidence level may not be sinking quite as low as that of Zeballos.
Hot: Tommy Robredo, Fernando Verdasco, Sergiy Stakhovksy
Cold: Horacio Zeballos, Filippo Volandri, Andreas Vinciguerra
Semifinal predictions: Nicolas Almagro over Grigor Dimitrov and Tommy Robredo over Tomas Berdych
Final: Almagro over Robredo
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
Hi Ricky, am from TT
welcome, deuce! thanks for dropping by.
I thought Fed was playing?
#RIPTT
#akaConspirator
nope, Fed is playing Gstaad and Hamburg later this month.
#DontHoldYourBreath
Hi everyone!
Good to see you here. Now that the most recent comments are posted on the right side of the page, you can see who has posted and respond. It’s fun to see some of the old gang here already.
I want to figure out how to get it as most recent articles commented on (like it was at TT), but for now the most recent comment will do.
Well, I’m here too 🙂
hello, emialiano! thanks for posting.
Gstaad, Bastad almost same in sound so can’t blame hawkeye if she got confused LOL
although Bastad is considerably better IMO. Especially since either Gulbis or Haas will be out 2nd round.
There were some news about rafa playing hamburg or any clay event before montreal..has there been any confirmation? At least I have not come across any confirmation..
Fed is…..not sure about Rafa. How is his knee?
The latest I heard about the knee was that rafa has not suffered from any damage ..He must have already begun training because according to Toni rafa was ready to train in the previous week…I would assume he has begun training…. Won’t be surprised if rafa plays Gastaad …that wont be good for federer though lol….
Ricky, how do you see rafa’s remainder of the season coming along? you have been good with predictions usually 😉 except for wimbledon lol. cant blame you on that though ! I would be curious to see how rafa performs at Montreal because he has a good record there….Cincy is the worst tournament ever for him
Besides, I have another question ! I am curious as to why rafa has been suffering from so many injuries and djokovic has not endured any such injuries over the last two years…I mean people say it the price rafa has to pay for his extremely physical style of play and sometimes poor scheduling etc but hey, djoker almost follows the same schedule and he style od play is no less physical ! I believe it is even more taxing because djoker SLIDES on hard courts and grass courts !
Is it because the weight distribution of his body is more proportionate than rafa’s? Rafa’s thighs and bum (lol) are disproportionately heavier than his upper body so does that may be put more strain on his knees ? or is it because djo is a lot more flexible so he gets away with undue stress on his body? or may its just that rafa is unlucky to have a history of injuries and is plain unlucky to have them since he was a teen !
Your comments on this , please!
I think flexibility and playing style has a lot to do with it.
I also find it hard to believe that Nole is only 5 lbs lighter than Rafa (ATP data).
hawkeye, but nole’s playing style is seemingly even more taxing ! this is confusing for me..
Well Rafa was born with a foot problem to begin with which can definitely be a factor.
Many of us believe that this is the source of Rafa’s knee problems. That foot issue nearly derailed his career almost before it began. Some players seem to be more vulnerable to injury due to congenital problems like Rafa’s foot deformity or then there’s Delpo who is quite injury prone.
he just better not be stupid and go deep in both Montreal and cincy before the US Open
follower of TT 🙂 commenting here first time 🙂
Hallo Sana
if you followed TT for any length of time you will know most of the new arrivals posting here already. Did you ever comment at TT – I dont recall seeing your name there.
Even though Nole is still #1 and actually gained points after bettering his result this year in getting to the final, I think there are chinks in the armor. He seems to be more inconsistent this year. Yes I know that he won the AO and got to the semis at RG and the final at Wimbledon, but he still doesn’t seem to be at his best.
When was the last time Nole lost in straight sets at a slam? I also wonder if that semifinal loss to Rafa at RG hurt him more than we might have thought. He did make winning RG his primary goal this year. He was talking about it to everyone and his brother. So that had to be a huge disappointment given how close he was to getting to the final.
I still think that Nole at this best would have put away Delpo in four sets at the most. His backhand was really off in that match and he seemed both physically and mentally tired.
Nole said after his loss in the final that he didn’t play his best tennis and that he was tired. I guess now he can take some time off and be ready for the hard court season.
it should be said that Djokovic’s worst surface, by far, is grass. He still did well on it. There is no reason why he can’t regain dominance on hard courts. Then again, Del Potro’s worst surface is also grass….
He admitted after Delpotro or Berdych that this was his “least preferred” surface.
I think his pride and his self-confidence have both taken some severe knocks this season. Although he has always been a good front runner there are signs that the years at No1 are taking their toll. e.g. His outburst at Madrid when he was losing to Dimitrov.
He was definitely flat on Sunday and from the off, when he was broken in the first game, it seemed almost inevitable that Murray was going to win provided he didn’t suffer a meltdown. But I doubt anybody, Murray least of all, could have anticipated it would be in straight sets.
Read Simon Reeds newest article.
NNY: We’re both guilty of going off topic 🙂
Neither Nole nor Andy are playing at any of the above tourneys!
a piece on the unheralded stars of Wimbledon. should be some good discussion on it – https://tenngrand.com/2013/07/08/the-unheralded-stars-of-a-wacky-wimbledon/
ed,
Yes we are! Try as I might, I just cannot get excited about this tourney. But we should try to discuss it out of respect for Ricky’s great analysis. I am wondering if Verdasco will be able to build on his good result at Wimbledon. Ricky’s picking Robredo over Berdy. I guess because it’s clay.
I can see Hewitt being favored at Newport on the grass. I can see Haas winning in Stuttgart.
I also would like to see Verdi start to do well again.
After he pulled off that amazing win for Spain in the DC, and then played out of his tiny little mind at the ’09 AO, I really did think he was a reformed character. Prior to that I always felt he was a bit of a dilettante and rather more interested in his hair-do than on his tennis. After that he then had a lot of ankle problems and there was talk he would need surgery. Dont think that ever happened. Whatever he went steadily down hill and reverted to his old habits.
The resurgence of Haas is quite amazing isn’t it. I mean the man’s had a laundry list of injuries and surgeries and spent practically more time out of the tour than competing yet has come back to challenge the younger brigade. Must get up RF’s nose – he can hardly use his age as an excuse when he loses to lower ranked players.
I heard that Verdi has a new coach. I also heard that he is using a new racket, the Babolot? Whatever changes have been made, he is playing like a guy who has remembered that he is a tennis player. I hope he can keep it up. He really needs to work on the mental strength, though.
I think Haas has been inspiring with his great comeback. He could have thrown in the towel, but he has chosen to make the most of this opportunity now that he seems to be healthy.
Isner must be 100 percent based on today’s result. Still like Hewitt to win it all, though.
I am with in liking Hewitt for the win.
ed.. I was just a follower.. I tried but couldn’t register I dint know why so when I saw you people are here so I got registered here its easy 🙂
Welcome Sana!
Too bad you couldn’t post on TT but here you are now!
Rafa has announced: ready to the practice! According to the picture, he has begun preparations for the hard-court season (no claycourt-tournaments any more).
http://tinyurl.com/qfz3sj3
augusta08 = Augustina08 of Tennistalk. It’s my first attempt to comment here.
this is good news. Hopefully he plays well in the hard court season and moves up the rankings
vamosrafa, it is due to Novak being so flexible. His body his like a shock absorber. That’s the main reason why he has never had any serious injuries in his career, inspite of his physical style of play.(Unlike Rafa and Andy)
Novak’s flexibility helps him, yes. And as someone wrote, sliding on the other surfaces is hard on the body but apparently his can take it. He has done some major work in fitness and flexibility in the last three years. Before then he often quit due to minor injuries or more often due to being tired out (his old I think congenital lungs / breathing problem). Overall he is less injury prone than the average player who plays a whole lot.
Rafa on the other hand is average or above average injury prone for someone who plays as many matches each year. I do believe the congenital foot problem is a major factor. Even though he wears insoles and I believe his shoes are custom shaped… any deformity, difference from the usual in a foot gets amplified as potentially large challenges to the rest of the body: knees, hips, back as all the distribution of forces is not what they normally are and the body adjusts as best it can. Combine that with playing so much since an early age and professionally for well over ten years… too bad the majority of tournaments are not on clay.
ESPN 2013 WIMBLEDON: Master Impressionist Josh Berry visits the ESPN Set.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hci8chjFbeM
Here’s the same guy on ESPN with Chris Fowler doing the Top 5 plus Roddick. Very good.
Oops wrong thread.