“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.
From the end of Wimbledon until the beginning of the Canada Masters, we often do not see a glimpse of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and other top players. This time around, though, Federer his getting right back in gear in an attempt to find his form well in advance of the U.S. Open while also stocking up on ranking points.
Federer leads the way this week in Hamburg, where he last played in 2008 (finished runner-up to Nadal). The Swiss participated in the event eight times in a nine-year stretch, when it was a Masters 1000 before being downgraded to a 500-pointer in 2009. Federer, who is 29-4 lifetime in Hamburg, is the top seed ahead of Tommy Haas, Nicolas Almagro, Jerzy Janowicz, and defending champion Juan Monaco.
Meanwhile, Janko Tipsarevic and Kevin Anderson headline the beginning of the hard-court summer at the inaugural Bogota, Colombia tournament.
German Tennis Championships
Where: Hamburg, Germany
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 1,102,500 Euros
Points: 500
Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Juan Monaco
Draw analysis: Federer’s path through the tournament could feature a handful of dangerous but inconsistent talents. Up first for the No. 1 seed is Daniel Brands, who tested Nadal at the French Open but has done absolutely nothing since. Federer’s likely third-round opponent is Ernests Gulbis. All three of their previous encounters have gone deep into final sets, with Gulbis winning one of those at the 2010 Rome Masters. Alexandr Dolgopolov is a possible quarterfinal adversary for Federer, while either Jerzy Janowicz or Fernando Verdasco may await in the semis. Janowicz, of course, reached the Wimbledon semifinals and Verdasco finished runner-up to Carlos Berlocq at the Swedish Open on Sunday. The winner of a potential Janowicz-Verdasco third-round showdown could run into resurgent Spanish veteran Tommy Robredo in the last eight.
Upsets should be more plentiful in the bottom half of the draw, where unseeded floaters threaten to take advantage of a relatively weak seeded contingent. Berlocq is on course to meet Martin Klizan in the second round before a date with Haas. A slumping Juan Monaco, the defending champion in Hamburg, faces a possible clash right off the bat against a healthy Gael Monfils. Clay-court specialist Thomaz Bellucci should have a better chance on this surface against Andreas Seppi, to whom the Brazilian lost a tough three-setter earlier this season in Miami. Playing in Germany for a second consecutive week, Haas has arguably the most favorable draw of any seed. Is the 11th-ranked German thus in line for another title match against friend and fellow veteran Federer?
Second-round upset alert: Albert Ramos over (12) Fabio Fognini. Fognini leads the head-to-head series 3-0 and he is coming off the first ATP title of his career, captured on Sunday in Stuttgart. The latter fact, however, is one of the reasons why the Italian could be in for a short stay at the German Tennis Championships. Fognini has never been one to maintain focus for an extended period of time and he will likely be content to have the Stuttgart triumph feature as the virtual end to his 2013 clay-court season. Additionally, Ramos is also a stellar clay-court player and he is in the midst of a solid year. The 64th-ranked Spaniard boasts 19 ATP-level match wins, three of which came en route to the Barcelona quarterfinals.
With all 16 seeds receiving byes to the second round, a whole host of them could tumble out of the tournament in bunches prior to the next stage. In addition to matchups mentioned previously, watch out for Dolgopolov against Florian Mayer and Benoit Paire against Albert Montanes. Mayer humiliated Nikolay Davydenko 6-1, 6-3 in his opener on Monday and Montanes may be able to frustrate Paire on clay.
Hot: Tommy Haas, Jerzy Janowicz, Tommy Robredo, Fabio Fognini, Fernando Verdasco, Mikhail Youzhny, Lukasz Kubot, Carlos Berlocq
Cold: Juan Monaco, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Martin Klizan, Florian Mayer, Pablo Andujar, Andrey Golubev, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Horacio Zeballos
Quarterfinal predictions: Roger Federer over Florian Mayer, Tommy Robredo over Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro over Gael Monfils, and Tommy Haas over Albert Ramos
Semifinals: Federer over Robredo and Almagro over Haas
Final: Federer over Almagro
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Claro Open Colombia
Where: Bogota, Colombia
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $638,085
Points: 250
Top seed: Janko Tipsarevic
Defending champion: Inaugural event
Draw analysis: Take one quick glance at the draw and you will know we’re not in Los Angeles anymore. This is the event that previously kicked off the U.S. Open Series. With Bogota buying its rights, the USOS—and the American players who love it so much—will have to wait until next week in Atlanta to get things going. In fact, there is not a single American in either the Bogota or Hamburg fields. Like Haas in Hamburg, Bogota at least has an American citizen in the form of Anderson. The 6’7’’ South African, one of four with opening-round byes, was placed in a soft section of the bracket but he could face Colombia’s own Santiago Giraldo in the quarterfinals. An in-form Igor Sijsling looms relatively large as a potential semifinal opponent.
Tipsarevic, who generally thrives on hard courts, still registers high enough in the rankings to be seeded first. The Serb, though, is a disappointing 13-13 for the year and he has won a mere six of his last 19 matches. Tipsarevic may have a more difficult road than Anderson, with a likely opener against Ruben Bemelmans prior to a clash with either Xavier Malisse or Alejandro Falla. Among the competitors in a wide-open second quarter of the draw are Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Aljaz Bedene, and Vasek Pospisil.
First-round upset alert: Alejandro Falla over (8) Xavier Malisse. Malisse is a perfect 4-0 lifetime against Falla (including a 6-3, 6-3 win five months ago in Delray Beach), but two of those came on grass. Falla would prefer to contest this matchup on clay, which is the surface one would expected for a tournament in Colombia, but at least he has home-court advantage even if he will not enjoy a surface edge. Falla needs all the help he can get, because the 29-year-old has not won a match since the Oeiras event in early May. He may get some from Malisse, who is just 12-15 for his 2013 campaign and has not played since a first-round Wimbledon loss to Verdasco.
Hot: Igor Sijsling, Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Adrian Mannarino, Michal Przysiezny
Cold: Janko Tipsarevic, Matthew Ebden, Ivo Karlovic
Semifinal predictions: Janko Tipsarevic over Aljaz Bedene and Kevin Anderson over Igor Sijsling
Final: Anderson over Tipsarevic
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