Acapulco SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Medvedev, Tsitsipas vs. Norrie

Nadal Medvedev Australian Open
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It’s a cracker of a semifinal day in Acapulco, with the seeds largely intact. Soon-to-be world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev takes on Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas battles Delray Beach champion Cam Norrie on Friday.

(1) Daniil Medvedev vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Top seed Daniil Medvedev will get a second crack at rival Rafael Nadal just two weeks after their epic Australian Open final. The Russian was up two sets to none and had Nadal in a 0-40 hole at 2-3 before the Spaniard came roaring back to nab the title and with it a record-breaking 21 slams–and the double-career Grand Slam.

Medvedev was favored in that match, as he is in Friday’s semi. The soon-to-be world No. 1 has been the premier hard-court player of the last 6 months; he won his first Slam in New York over Novak Djokovic and made a second consecutive final in Melbourne. Nadal gritted out the win in Melbourne through sheer force of will (and thanks to the best-of-five format at majors), but he won’t have that kind of cushion in Acapulco.

With the slow courts and the high humidity, conditions this week aren’t to Nadal’s liking–as evidenced by the sawdust he has brought with him to mop up his sweat and the bizarre match against Tommy Paul in the quarters in which the Spaniard was broken three times in the second set after taking the first with a bagel. Expect Medvedev to exact a little revenge.

Cheryl pick: Medvedev in 3

Ricky pick: Medvedev in 3

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WWW: Medvedev vs. Nadal?

(3) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (6) Cam Norrie

World No. 4 Stefanos Tsistipas if off to a good if not spectacular start to the 2022 season. The Greek has no titles yet, having lost his only final in Rotterdam to Felix Auger-Aliassime, but he has gotten to the business end of most every event–including a run to the Australian Open semifinals. Tsitsipas had a bit of a tricky start this week (he needed a pair of tiebreakers to get past Laslo Djere), but it has been smooth sailing ever since for Acapulco’s No. 3 seed.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Unlike Tsitsipas, Cameron Norrie endured a miserable first month in 2022. He went into last week’s Delray Beach tournament with a 2-5 record on the season, but he has since righted the ship. He beat Reilly Opelka to capture the Delray title and now finds himself in the Acapulco semis.

Despite Norrie’s improved form, this one should be Tsitsipas’ for the taking. The 23-year-old has played well all week and is a steep step up in competition for the left-hander this week.

Cheryl pick: Tsitsipas in 2

Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 2

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WWW: Tsitsipas vs. Norrie?

54 Comments on Acapulco SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Medvedev, Tsitsipas vs. Norrie

  1. Nadal would be unwise to engage in another marathon battle with Medvedev under the circumstances. However, given his competitive nature, he might do just that.

    If I were him, I would just play first strike tennis and go for the winner basically every time. He might as well emerge as a quick victor.

    These guys need to pick their fights against each other, I wouldn’t be surprised if Med doesn’t overexert himself. Since Rafa is unable to tank a match, the best he can do is choose a very risky game plan – one that would also provide zero lessons learned to Daniil.

  2. Nadal and Medvedev met almost a month ago, not 2 weeks.

    Nadal has never lost to Med on outdoor HC, so Nadal in 3.

    Tsitsipas hasn’t had that great of a season, he was upset big time by Safiullin in Marseille, he’s too up and down for a top player, so for that reason I’m betting on Norrie to have enough energy (Mr. consistent backboard) to pull this one out in 2.

    • I am not the only one up at 5 am in the UK watching this lol.

      Delightful volleys from Rafa. This was as clutch a hold you’ll ever see.

      I think he’s staved off the threat here and will take this in two sets now.

        • Yes! signs of utmost confidence. He is the heavy favourite to win tomorrow and that would mean 15 straight wins and 3 titles. Won’t be wrong to say he would be the clear favourite in Indian Wells and who knows how much this guy can roll as long as he remains fit.

          Congrats to Medvedev for getting to no.1 but watch out for Rafa! He is coming after that no.1 spot and I think he’ll get it (at least temporarily at some point in this season). Granted he wins tomorrow, he will be almost 1000 points clear of Medvedev and 2,670 clear of Novak. Given the uncertainty surrounding Novak’s participation in future events, looks like it is a 3-way battle between Medvedev, Rafa and Rafa’s health 🙂

    • You’re right, I always think that Rafa Vs Meddy, Rafa is the favourite to win. Meddy Vs others, it’s hard to say but most of the times Meddy wins that’s why he’s no.1 now.

  3. Sheryl said that Medvedev is the best hard court player for the last six months…Nadal is 15 – 0 in hard court this season and won 2 finals already….In addition, now he just beat the best hard court twice….all the so-called pros are doubting Nadal and please do it at your own peril. I hope he can win another 2 slams for the year (French Open & US Open).

    • Yes. I am baffled by some of the things the experts say. No one who watches wall to wall tennis, which is what they ought to do, should come to some of the conclusions they reach. A lot of it is pure and simple bias.

      Rafa is ranked 5 in the world only because he hasn’t played much since 2020 due to injury. He won the USO and Canada the last time he played them and he bagled Medvedev in the final of that Canadian Open in 2019 beating him 63 60.

    • I agree! Well said! I think it’s about time people start picking Rafa! He is undefeated. He has beaten the so-called best hard court player twice now!

      Give Rafa some respect!

  4. The mentality is Nadal doesnt think he has anything to lose and is spoiling the party because people are expecting less from him. He enjoys nothing more than sticking it to the # player in the world.

    Medvedev would also had a lot of distractions the past week. Looked like he was lacking sleep.

    • and he got a boost in motivation from Zverev’s disqualification. You never know Norrie might be Nadal’s toughest test to date.

      • Norrie is hot at the moment and he is also a lefty but I believe Nadal is on a mission. People just think he is only a clay court player and he is proving them wrong time and time again. I will never bet against Nadal.

  5. Ha ha about the predictions!

    I know Tsitsipas is/was so inconsistent, that he might lose this and sure enough he did just that. He looked impressive in all his previous three matches but Norrie was playing some good tennis to beat big serving Isner. Norrie certainly could give Tsitsipas plenty of problems and sure enough, he played well to beat Tsitsipas.

    As for Rafa, I know he would come out all guns blazing like at the AO but his level would drop after that; but he being the veteran and a champion would find ways to solve problems on the court to win.

    Meddy had 9 BPs in that second set Rafa’s service game and yet Rafa was able to save all of them despite Meddy’s good ROS and several drop shot winners, that just proved that Rafa was confident enough to fight it out, using all his varieties and problem solving abilities, and at times gutsy play!

    I was screaming at Rafa (over at my TV screen), when he was unable to hold serve sooner in that game, having to go deuce and Ad so often!

    Rafa, as always, likes to put us and himself under stress before coming out the victor of the match! This habit of his never changes.

    • We call it stress. Rafa calls it fun. He’s certainly giving Meddy some much needed practice making drop shots. Anyway, Vamos Rafa for the final tonight! It’s earlier so I should be able to watch it live. Hoping to see Rafa wear that sombrero for the trophy ceremony and hold the silver “pear” again!

  6. Well, it has to said, that most of the experts who predicted a Medvedev win in Melbourne, didn’t doubt per se Rafa’s ability to beat Medvedev on hardcourt. But they believed that Rafa would be hampered by his long injury break and his recent covid-infection. And that assumption was not altogether wrong. Rafa had indeed an unusually high error count in the AO final. But somehow he still managed to win the important points! Therefore it’s actually not so surprising that a match-sharp and relaxed Rafa can handle Medvedev! Rafa’s H2H against the new No1 is getting more and more convincing, although all matches were played on hardcourt, which is supposed to be an advantage for Medvedev.
    I had hoped that Tsitsipas would be in the final, because I would have liked to see how Rafa would have handled another top ten player. While his unblemished streak of wins is pretty darn impressive, Rafa has so far only played against two top ten players in 2022: Berettini and Medvedev. I don’t doubt that Rafa can handle most of the current top ten players. But I would have liked to see how he would have acquitted himself against Zverev or Tsitsipas.

    • No worry, there’s still IW coming, and maybe Miami too should Rafa decide to play there. Tsitsipas doesn’t look like he’s playing all that well, he’s a bit too inconsistent so I think Rafa can beat him.

      I think a Rafa vs Djoko match would be a test for Rafa, and should Rafa be able to overcome Djoko on the HC, then I feel Rafa is truly back to a great level and is able to beat anyone! Djoko is still the ultimate test for Rafa.

      • I dont worry much about Nadal facing Novak anymore after FO20 win even if it is indoor hard court.. I also think Nadal also feels the same way, without having any mental block(dont ask me how, just my instinct)..Too bad Joker meets less while Nadal is playing so well and confident.. During 2015-2016 period, Nadal met him 8 times I believe when he was playing without any confidence..

    • Rafa is so confident now. You could see it as he fought off all these break points. I am glad that Rafa played in Acapulco. He is obviously feeling good. So after a long layoff he wants together out there and play. He may not have played more top ten players, but he has played the #1 player twice and won. Meddy can have the #1 ranking. Rafa has been there. He wants to win.

      Just win baby!

    • Tsitsipas is too inconsistent now. Rafa would be able to take him on. The confidence and belief from the win at the AO is going to help Rafa a lot.

      Meddy had 7 DF’s in the match. His serving was off. I also thought he looked very tired near the end. The humidity got to him, too. He lost in straight sets. That was a very satisfying follow up victory to the AO.

      Rafa needs to get some well deserved respect at this point. He has come back with a bang.

      I would like to see Rafa play Novak. A confident Rafa playing great tennis. That should be great.

  7. The comments here allude to Meddy looking tired. I watched the match Meddy played great, Rafa was just in that type of mood. As a top player you must learn how to perform even when not in ure greatest form. How many time has Rafa does this?

    • I did think the humid conditions affected Meddy. It’s only normal. It’s not an excuse. It’s just reality. Of course Meddy played great. He is now the best player and the new #1. But he is human, too. It takes nothing away from Rafa to say that Meddy looked a bit gassed. Playing Rafa when he is playing great tennis, is also hard. Rafa knew he had to be ready for Med. That was his best match, better than in the final. But Rafa did not have to be at his best to beat Norrie.

      Rafa was right to go to Acapulco and keep the momentum going. His matches were not tough until he met Med.

      Rafa is feeling it now! Just win, baby! He’s got the #4 ranking!

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