Acapulco R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Lopez, Nishikori vs. Shapovalov

Rafael Nadal will be on the match court for the first time since his Australian Open quarterfinal retirement when he faces Feliciano Lopez on Tuesday in Acapulco. Another blockbuster first-rounder pits Kei Nishikori against Denis Shapovalov.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Feliciano Lopez

Nadal and Lopez will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers when they collide in round one of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel on Tuesday. The head-to-head series stands at 9-4 in favor of Nadal, although that is an extremely respectable record for Lopez relative to how most players fare against the 16-time Grand Slam champion. Lopez has also won their last two encounters, but those came back in 2014 (6-3, 7-6(6) at the Shanghai Masters) and 2015 (5-7, 6-4, 7-6(3) at the Cincinnati Masters).

Lopez once again has the benefit of facing his fellow Spaniard on something other than clay (Nadal is 4-0 lifetime and 8-0 in total sets on the slow stuff), but the bad news for the underdog is that he is no longer anywhere near his prime. The 36-year-old is just 4-4 this season, although he still registers at a decent ranking of No. 38 in the world. Lopez’s only real chance in this one is if Nadal is either rusty or less than 100 percent in the wake of a hip injury that forced him to retire in the Australian Open quarterfinals against Marin Cilic. Otherwise this should be one-way traffic for Acapulco’s top seed and 2017 runner-up.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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Kei Nishikori vs. Denis Shapovalov

Nishikori is another top player who is on the comeback trail. Unlike Nadal, the world No. 26 from Japan could not even play the Australian Open due to a wrist injury. He returned in late January and got some matches under his belt on the Challenger circuit, losing in the Newport Beach first round to Denis Novikov before winning the Dallas title (and beating Novikov in the first round). The 28-year-old then reached the New York semifinals, picking up a trio of victories prior to a third-set tiebreaker loss to eventual champion Kevin Anderson.

Up first for Nishikori on Tuesday is Shapovalov, whom he has never faced. The 18-year-old Canadian is also coming off a loss to an eventual title winner, as he fell to Frances Tiafoe 7-5, 6-4 in the Delray Beach semifinals. Shapovalov is already up to No. 45 in the world with 20 career ATP-level match victories (six in 2018), many of which came last summer (Montreal semifinals, U.S. Open fourth round). With the youngster not quite as on fire as he was in 2017 and Nishikori rounding back into form, this may be a straight-setter–but a competitive one.

Pick: Nishikori in 2

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9 Comments on Acapulco R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Lopez, Nishikori vs. Shapovalov

  1. Rafa OUT of Acapulco. The injury from AO has resurfaced. He’s had to pull out of all SIX of his most recent tournaments (Basel, Paris, WTF, Brisbane, AO and Acapulco). He’s not sure whether he will play the sunshine double or just wait until clay

    • Maybe, Al, but I think even Rafa has to realize that he needs a fairly long break now. I was saying as much before the WTF last year; it was a mistake to play there, and the AO, in my opinion. At this point, I won’t be surprised to see Rafa miss much of the season.

      If Federer can stay healthy, he is by far the front-runner for YE #1.

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