Acapulco final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Fritz

Rafael Nadal is one win away from from a third title at the Abierto Mexicano Telcel, but it would be his first a the event on a hard court.

Nadal, who triumphed on the red clay of Acapulco in 2005 and 2013, fell short on the hard stuff in 2017 (l. to Sam Querrey in the final) and 2019 (l. to Nick Kyrgios in the second round). The 33-year-old Spaniard gets a shot at redemption on Saturday night when he battles Taylor Fritz for the title in their first-ever matchup.

Although just about all of his previous opponents this week played well, Nadal coasted into the final without any trouble. The world No. 2 defeated Pablo Andujar, Miomir Kecmanovic, Soonwoo Kwon, and Grigor Dimitrov without dropping a set or even playing a tiebreaker. Kecmanovic got five games in their second set, but no other set was closer than 6-3.

Nadal could have expected at least one tiebreaker and maybe more in Saturday’s championship match when it looked like John Isner would be on the other side of the net. But Fritz improbably recovered from a 2-6, 2-4, 0-40 deficit to prevail 2-6, 7-5, 6-3 over his fellow American. The 22-year-old preceded that result with victories over John Millman, Ugo Humbert, and Kyle Edmund.

Fritz can be dangerous with a big serve and an especially impressive backhand, but he had previously been a disappointing 3-5 this season and has benefited from some good fortune in Acapulco. Humbert suffered from a shoulder injury in round two and Isner threw him a lifeline when the fifth seed was on the brink of victory. Fritz will have to raise his level considerably and also avoid another slow start if he wants to have any chance against Nadal.

The top seed has been playing aggressive this week and returning well. If more of the same continues, Fritz won’t be allowed to go on the attack and will likely see his Acapulco run end in swift fashion.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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31 Comments on Acapulco final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Fritz

  1. Don’t know where you got the Humbert injury from, wasn’t injured from what I know. Isner didn’t throw him a lifeline, like I said Fritz was playing the better tennis than Isner all week, Isner just started well, once Fritz got in to the match it was game over, totally took over. Anyway Fritz can’t match Nadal for fight, but at least he’s never played him before, so has that going for him, Nadl to still take it though 7-5, 6-4.

      • Now Humbert will play a challenger this week, so that tells me he certainly wasn’t injured, just cause a player has a MTO does not mean injury or something serious.

  2. To me Rafa played well enough to win, but the problem of serving out a set still remained. I just don’t understand why the problem. Rafa seemed to be full of doubts in his head when he’s serving for a set or a match, regardless of the opponent he faced.

    He has to get rid of these doubts going forward, esp when playing in Masters and slams, when things won’t get any easier.

    • Not doubts. Nerves. And they do not improve with age or success. Arm tightens up, ball goes into net. It’s not gonna be pretty when/if Rafa has to serve out his 20th major.

  3. I was concerned with this pattern lately of not being able to serve out the set. It happened in every match in Acapulco. Against lesser competition, I might add. So why the nerves?

    If Rafa wants to do well where it counts, then he is going to have to deal with this. Better players will make him pay fir it.

  4. What happened to Rafa? It’s as if when he’s on a Mission that he played unbelievable tennis to beat anyone else!

    He gave me the illusion that he would be playing that way from then on, only to see him losing against first Goffin, then Djoko and then Thiem by not being about to replicate how he played at the DC last year. And, the nerve when serving out sets or matches returned!

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