Madrid R1 previews and picks: Fognini vs. Dolgopolov, Gulbis vs. Janowicz

Gulbis forehandFabio Fognini will be right back in action after finishing runner-up in Munich when he takes the court on Tuesday in Madrid against Alexandr Dolgopolov. Ernests Gulbis and Jerzy Janowicz are also bidding for a spot in the second round.

(13) Fabio Fognini vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov

Fognini and Dolgopolov will be doing battle for the fifth time in their careers at the ATP level when they clash in round one of the Mutua Madrid Open on Tuesday. Dolgopolov has won all four of those previous encounters, including two this season. The Ukrainian dominated 6-1, 6-1 on the clay courts of Rio de Janeiro and scored a 6-2, 6-4 victory at the Indian Wells Masters. He also won 6-2, 6-4 at the 2012 clay-court event in Munich. Fognini has at least beat his opponent once before, having won 7-5, 6-3 at a clay-court Challenger tournament back in 2007.

Dolgopolov’s solid 19-11 record this year is highlighted by a third-round Indian Wells upset of Rafael Nadal. The world No. 22 went on to reach the semifinals and also the quarters in Miami, but he is a modest 1-2 during the current red-dirt swing. Fognini is coming off a runner-up showing last week in Munich, where he had a meltdown in Sunday’s title match against Martin Klizan. The 15th-ranked Italian is 26-9 for his 2014 campaign, with two runner-ups and a title in Vina del Mar. Players rarely get more unpredictable than Fognini and Dolgopolov, but Dolgopolov may have an edge being more well-rested and based on his past success in this matchup.

Pick: Dolgopolov in 3

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Ernests Gulbis vs. Jerzy Janowicz

Janowicz went into 2014 with a foot injury and he has not been able to get on track. The world No. 21–still ranked that high because of Wimbledon semifinal points from last summer–has been especially ice cold since mid-February. In fact, he has not won a match since beating Tommy Haas in the Rotterdam second round. Janowicz lost openers in Indian Wells, Miami, Monte-Carlo, and Barcelona while winning only a single set in the process. He also dropped two lower-level Davis Cup singles rubbers against Croatia (although one was a five-setter versus Marin Cilic).

Janowicz will look to stop the slide in his Madrid opener with Gulbis, against whom the Pole is 2-1 lifetime at the ATP level and 3-2 overall. They have faced each other only once on clay, when Janowicz pocketed a 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 win at a 2012 Challenger event in Rome. They most recently squared off last fall on the indoor hard courts of Stockholm, where Gulbis advanced to the semifinals via a 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 decision. The 20th-ranked Latvian is a stellar 18-8 for the year, which includes a title in Marseille, a quarterfinal finish in Indian Wells, and a recent semifinal performance in Barcelona. With a massive edge in current form and confidence, this should be one-way traffic for Gulbis.

Pick: Gulbis in 2

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161 Comments on Madrid R1 previews and picks: Fognini vs. Dolgopolov, Gulbis vs. Janowicz

  1. It’s a crap shoot trying to decide who to pick with Fognini and Dolgo. Honestly, it could go either way. Toss a coin. I will go with Fognini in three.

    I think it’s definitely Gulbis in two against JJ. Unless he has some major meltdown, this should be easy.

    • I hope you’re both right, but Gulbis could lose to any opponent on any day no matter what the circumstances.

  2. @snowdevil,

    Do you think that Gulbis can beat JJ? I don’t see him going far in this tournament, but he should get by a slumping JJ. As I said, unless Gulbis has a complete meltdown, which is not out of the realm of possibility.

  3. Ricky,

    Yes, too true! That’s why I did qualify my prediction with the caveat about Gulbis having a major meltdown. He’s good at that. 😉

  4. Both these matches should be good for a laugh!

    The Fog against the Dog in 3 – that is if Foggy behaves himself today.

    I heard Ernie has promised his coach not to break any more racquets 🙂
    This will severely cramp his style in which case Jerzy could profit from an out of sorts Gulbis and take it in 3

    • LOL…some time ago he said that he has vowed to himself not to break rackets anymore because he visited the factory where his rackets were made and he felt ashamed after seeing how much effort goes into making each racket. That promise did not turn out well I guess…let’s see how this one goes lol

  5. Looking forward to Thiem vs Wawa tonight. Hope it’s not a damp squib like Grisha/PCB was last night……………

  6. There are two pressure cookers waiting to explode on Court 3. Touch and go which will be the first. Good match so far.

    • Jerzy is such an all or nothing player. Once his 1st serve goes AWOL he’s in deep trouble. Gulbis is keeping his cool.

  7. I am going to Ireland on Thursday so I won’t be able to watch wall to wall Madrid but will keep an eye on the score and hope Rafa does what he has to do.

    Vamos Rafa!

  8. Federer on his FB:

    “I’ve decided to withdraw from Madrid to be with my wife Mirka during these next few exciting weeks for our family. I apologize to my fans and hope to be back in Madrid next year. I’ll be training near my home, and am excited to rejoin the Tour soon!”

    • Totally not surprised, I did ask the question earlier when Fed would be in Madrid. Not like him to arrive late at tournaments and he usually has lots of promotional activities to do so when I saw he was not yet in Madrid I knew something was up.

      Hopefully this means Mirka is due anytime and Fed will be there at RG.

      Good luck Fed!

  9. Jerzy had a lot of success with his drop shots catching opponents by surprise when he first burst onto the scene. But now he tends to overuse it and it has become too predictable: he probably loses more points with it than he wins.

  10. They waited until the very last minute to make Fed’s announcement. I’m sure they always knew he wouldn’t play; he didn’t even bother to travel to Madrid. This is shabby treatment for those fans who would have spent a lot of money just to see Federer. It happened to me when Rafa pulled out of A. Dhabi in 2012. To say I was disappointed is putting it mildly.

  11. Fog and Dog shaping up for a dog fight. or maybe not since Foggy is seeking an MTO which appears to be in dispute: cant hear exacty what is being said.

  12. Why can’t The Fog let go………..just L.E.T I.T G.O. man!!!!!!!!!

    His capacity to self-destruct is breath-taking.

    Still muttering at Mo……

  13. RT @raviubha: “Fabio to Mohamed Lahyani: “I want to see you now. Don’t be scared.””

    I am so not seeing the funny side of The Fog’s histrionics anymore. Coming across as a brat with potential, nothing more, these days………

    • I don’t get it. He is obviously talented but he seems to expect matches to be handed to him; as soon as he’s down or gets broken he starts to lose it. I’m sure he’ll be fined for his outburst. Barry Cowan thinks he shouldn’t be allowed to play Rome, but I’ve never heard of a play being suspended.

      He is probably a member of he Mafia.

      • I agree with Barry Cowan. Fabio’s histrionics definitely qualify as bringing the game into disrepute. Such insolence should not go unpunished. These are the issues Fed should go after in his capacity as Pres of the Players’ Council instead of selfishly pursuing Rafa with time violation edicts.

        Fognini is out of control.

  14. augusta08 says: May 6, 2014 at 3:11 pm

    I never quite understood why people saw comedic value in Johnny Mac’s antics. I thought they were embarrassing……..used to cringe each time he started.

  15. I was a big, big fan of JMac. I used to defend him against everyone because I liked his style and much preferred his antics to Nastase who got on my nerves. McEnroe’s game made up for his behaviour. At the time I thought he had a point in wanting officials to get things right. After McEnroe, my favourite was Edberg, fire and ice I know, but Edberg also had a beautiful game.

    I had to wait decades after McEnroe retired to find Rafa who even surpasses McEnroe in my estimation and loyalty. I never thought that was possible.

    • I was, and still am, a fan of Johnny Mac’s game, not his antics. Never thought his game needed embellishing with those crude antics, it was good enough on its own.

      Yep, I’m old school in that respect. Authority figures, like Umpires, are there for a reason. Can’t imagine anyone agreeing to sit in those ridiculous high chairs, dressed in even more ridiculous uniforms, just to make a player’s life miserable.

  16. RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Fognini to ump, not happy about ball abuse warning in 1st set: “You have to think [with] your mind sometimes. I know it’s difficult for you””

    Yep……..

    • A player can ask for the umpire to confirm the ball is in or out but the umpire’s decision cant be challenged and I think I’m right in saying there is no limit to the number of times they can ask for verification. This is a grey area because it is open to abuse if players use this procedure as a diversionary tactic too often.

      Something I dont understand is if the mark is on the other side of the net from the player querying the call he is not allowed go round to see it for himself. But if it is on his side of the net he gets to have a close-up view. This was another of Foggy’s gripes.

  17. So Fer Verdasco remembered what he does best…………….pulling defeat from the jaws of victory!

    RBA has a good shot at the quarters here……………

  18. Settled in nicely with my red wine glass watching Wawa/Thiem. Wawa has that look in his eye……..I feel for young Thiem.

    #LambToTheSlaughter

  19. Eh, Dominic. Donating points through double faults is not a good idea, especially if you are trailing 1/4 in the 1st set.

    • Looks like he was having a running conversation with a spectator, sounded like Stan was telling the spectator off. Kept Thiem waiting to serve while he yakked away…

      I really am not liking Diva Stan..

  20. Has WaWa always twizzled his racquet à lå Fed while waiting to receive serve?

    So it was twins after all. Boys this time.
    #TwoForThePriceOfOneAgain

  21. Timing seems awfully suspicious to me….bet Mirka was induced to avoid clashing with Wimbledon……

      • …and of course his friends at the AELTC will give him a cushy draw and scheduling as a Pappy’s present……….

  22. ^^^^Bless his little cotton socks. He’s consolidated the break. You’re right, he has got over his stage fright.

  23. Maybe Wawa’s heard the news…..and his level’s dropped out of disappointment. Thought twins shoulda been named Roger and Stan…………….

    #FutureDubsGoldMedallists

  24. They don’t do things by half, do they the Federers?

    RT @svenja_mastro: “Lynette and Robbie Federer are now grand parents to 3 twins, Roger’s sister Diana also has twins #itsinthegenes”

    Its raining babies!

  25. I don’t expect Young Dom to win, will be happy with him just bringing Stan a wee bit down to earth……………starting to annoy me with his cocky attitude…..

  26. RT @SteveTignor: “Here’s the Dominic Thiem we were hoping to see. Wins 2nd set from Stan Wawrinka 6-2. Into a 3rd. #MutuaMadridOpen’

  27. He’s not allowing WaWa to bully him but is in danger of pressing a touch too hard now. But still managed to save BPs.

  28. Dom’s average BH speed in the 2nd set is more than Wawa’s. He’s not just hitting it, he’s knifing it………….

  29. Dom could do with a good coach, the FH’s a little too loose……..

    Look what Ivan did with Muzza’s and Norman with Wawa’s……

  30. RT @christophclarey: “Dominic Thiem, age 20, upsets Wawrinka, world’s No. 3 player, 1-6, 6-2, 6-4 in #Madrid”

    RT @SI_BTBaseline: ’20yo Dominic Thiem stuns No. 3 Stanislas Wawrinka 16 62 64 in Madrid. The Thiem Bandwagon is officially full. What ball-striking.”

  31. The upset of the tournament. Thiem maybe 20 years old but looks more like a 16yr old schoolboy. He has all the tools. They just need honing.

  32. I love that Dom broke Stan to win the match, that shows nerves of steel, poise. Solid BH once he broke out of his shell. FH’s a littke loose but nothing a good coach cannot right. Good attitude on court too, no histrionics, plays with “colm”

    Vamos Dom!!

  33. Hahaha! Tiggy, you rock!

    RT @SteveTignor: “Thiem upsets Wawrinka 6-4 in 3rd. (*Hastily deletes 1/2-written post about how Stan is now part of the Big 4*) #MutuaMadridOpen”

  34. I don’t care about whre Stan’s at in the rankings. Just want all the pundits who were rushing to anoint him the second coming to eat humble pie. At least Tiggy’s sense of humour’s intact and he does just that!

  35. This is a reality check for Stan. Now hopefully people will pull back on all the over the top predictions for him during the clay season.

  36. congrats to Fed and Mirka…I’m so happy for them…great BIG family…wonderful news…at least two of his four will play tennis if not all of them… 🙂

  37. WaWa’s team were on edge and looking glum from around midway through 2nd set. Norman in particular didn’t seem confident Stan was going to pull out the win.

    I think Stan fell into the trap of believing all the hype since AO and made the fatal error of underestimating his opponent, particularly after winning the 1st so easily.

  38. WOW. 2 sets of twins for Roger and Mirka? that’s insane. Not gonna question their family planning methods just say Congrats!!!

  39. I do think that there is something to be said for Stan maybe believing the hype. It is entirely possible that he did underestimate Thiem. One can get complacent if one isn’t careful.

    It reminds me of how Rafa never takes any opponent for granted. He’s smart that way. 😉

  40. This is when Stan shows us what he is made of……..

    “If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster. And treat those two impostors just the same;. …….”

  41. Wow! Madrid’s heating up nicely….

    Hopefully setting it up for the King of Clay to retain the title on Sunday!

    • I have Berdy falling to Anderson tomorrow;
      Tsonga falling to Santiago Giraldo;
      Dolgo falling to the Gulbinator;
      Gilles Simon falling to Kubot;

      The rest, the seedings to prevail.

    • honestly, I don’t like seeing Dimitrov facing Rafa, not just yet…if there were different times I wouldn’t worry but I am still not aware of how ready Rafa will be…and knowing that this is his least favorite clay tourney it’s difficult for me to have high expectations …and I shall not think ahead…one match at the time…that’s what I learned from Rafa 😉

      • I am nervous about Rafa facing Dimitrov, but for all we know this may just be what he needs to get himself going again. But I agree about taking it one match at a time and dealing with it when/if it happens.

      • true, but my heart is not ready for those tests… 🙂 and my nerves could benefit enormously from some easy straight set wins of Rafa…

  42. @ nativenewyorker7:
    May 6, 2014 at 9:40 pm

    I agree…Stan went easy with the first set and had already seen himself having a nice bath…but the youngster had different plans and refused to hand it over…great tennis from the Austrian…I read his favorite surface is clay… 😉

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