Indian Wells SF preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Draper

There is no Jannik Sinner to try and stop Carlos Alcaraz at the BNP Paribas Open. Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev are also long gone.

Perhaps it is Jack Draper who has the best chance of denying Alcaraz a third consecutive title at the Indian Wells Masters, and that is who the Spaniard will face on semifinal Saturday.

They have squared off four times and Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 3-1, but two of their matches ended in Draper retirements. That includes a showdown in Indian Wells, where Alcaraz was rolling 6-2, 2-0 in the 2023 fourth round when his opponent called it quits. The Spaniard led 7-5, 6-1 at this year’s Australian Open–also in the fourth round–when Draper could not continue. Unsurprisingly, the Brit’s lone victory came when he had home-court advantage on the grass court of Queen’s Club last summer and prevailed 7-6(3), 6-3.

With Draper healthy and both guys in awesome form, Saturday figures to be the most entertaining chapter of their rivalry to date. The 23-year-old lefty is 11-2 this season and has not dropped a single set in the desert while defeating Joao Fonseca, Jenson Brooksby, Taylor Fritz, and Ben Shelton.

Alcaraz has been even more dominant this fortnight. It has been nothing but straight-set victories for the 21-year-old, who rolled into the semis by beating Quentin Halys, Grigor Dimitrov, Denis Shapovalov, and Francisco Cerundolo. Alcaraz double-breadsticked Dimitrov and only one set has been more competitive than 6-4 (the second set against Cerundolo on Thursday night went to a tiebreaker).

Draper is serving well enough and hitting big enough to possibly steal a set, but Alcaraz is simply playing too well and these conditions are too perfect for his game. There is a reason–many, in fact–why he is the two-time defending champion in Tennis Paradise.

The world No. 3’s bid for three in a row should remain alive and well.

Pick: Alcaraz in 3