Indian Wells SF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Rune

It will be a rematch of the 2024 BNP Paribas Open quarterfinals when Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune meet again in the desert, this time in the semis on Saturday.

Medvedev won last year’s encounter 7-5, 6-4 to take a 2-1 lead in the head-to-head series. He also beat Rune 7-5, 7-5 in the 2023 Rome Masters title match after the Dane prevailed 6-3, 6-4 in their first-ever showdown at the ’23 Monte-Carlo Masters.

Those two most recent results are especially encouraging for Medvedev given that they were played on surfaces that would be expected to favor Rune. If the Russian won 12 months ago in the desert, there is no reason why he can’t get the job done this time around. Conditions in Indian Wells remain far from ideal for Medvedev, but he is once again handling them in impressive fashion and is one win away for reaching a third consecutive final. The world No. 6 has advanced this fortnight with victories over Bu Yunchaokete, Alex Michelsen, Tommy Paul, and Arthur Fils–the latter in a third-set tiebreaker.

Rune was also in desperate need of a big result, having arrived at this event with a modest 6-6 record for his 2025 campaign. The 13th-ranked Dane raised his level to reach the semis, taking out Corentin Moutet, Ugo Humbert, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Tallon Griekspoor.

Their respective stays in the desert have been similar. Medvedev was especially overwhelming in a 6-4, 6-0 beatdown of Paul, while Rune disposed of an in-form Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-4. Medvedev almost lost to Fils, while Rune came back from a break down in the third set against Humbert and also needed three sets to beat Griekspoor.

This has all the makings of high-quality and competitive contest. Given their last two matches and the confidence Medvedev will gain from his great escape against Fils (his celebration said it all!), the No. 5 seed may have a slight edge on Saturday.

Pick: Medvedev in 3