Lorenzo Musetti and Ben Shelton are on a collision course for the Australian Open third round, but they could be tested on Thursday. Musetti is going up against Denis Shapovalov, while Shelton faces Pablo Carreno Busta.
Denis Shapovalov vs. (16) Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti and Shapovalov will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they clash in round two of the Australian Open on Thursday. Their only previous encounter came last spring at the Indian Wells Masters, where Musetti prevailed 6-4, 2-6, 7-5. The 15th-ranked Italian went on to have a stellar year, making a run to the Wimbledon semis, capturing the bronze medal at the Paris Olympics, and finishing runner-up at three ATP tournaments. Musetti advanced on Tuesday by scraping past compatriot Matteo Arnaldi 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-3 in four hours and six minutes.
Shapovalov also advanced in four sets, beating Roberto Bautista Agut 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 7-6(8) after three hours and 11 minutes. The 56th-ranked Canadian has been mediocre so far this year, but he found some form at end of 2024. His fall swing featured successful qualification in Shanghai, a title in Belgrade, and a quarterfinal showing in Basel (lost to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in a third-set tiebreaker). Shapovalov has advanced past the second round in Melbourne four times, including a quarterfinal appearance in 2022. Musetti has never gotten out of round two Down Under. This is a good opportunity for Shapovalov to pull off a minor upset.
Pick: Shapovalov in 5
(21) Ben Shelton vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Shelton has already enjoyed success at Melbourne Park in the early stages of his career. The 22-year-old American reached the quarterfinals in 2023 and the third round last January. He was dealt a difficult first-round draw this fortnight but battled past countryman Brandon Nakashima 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-5 on Tuesday evening.
Up next for the world No. 20 is a first-ever encounter with Carreno Busta. The 33-year-old Spaniard missed basically all of 2023 and the first half of 2024, so he appears to be far from his best these days even though good health has mercifully returned. Carreno Busta crushed qualifier Kamil Majchrzak 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 in the opening round, but he is just 2-3 this season and has not defeated anyone ranked better than 78th in the rankings since early September. Unless Shelton serves poorly and lets his opponent get into baseline exchanges, this should be mostly one-way traffic.
Pick: Shelton in 4
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