Alex de Minaur is the lone newcomer at the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals and–barring a miracle–his debut at the year-end championship is not going to last long.
Heading into the last two matches in Group Ilie Nastase on Thursday, De Minaur has only one outlet for successful semifinal qualification. The Australian must defeat Fritz in straight sets during the afternoon session and he needs Jannik Sinner to beat Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in the nightcap. Even then, De Minaur would have to win a percentage of games won tiebreaker over Fritz and Medvedev to earn second place in the group.
If there is any more good news in addition to still being mathematically alive (barely!), De Minaur has a history of success against Fritz. The 25-year-old leads the head-to-head series 6-3 overall and 5-3 on the main tour. He has won each of their last two encounters dating back to the summer of 2023 and he has won both of their previous indoor meetings (2018 NextGen ATP Finals, 2019 Basel).
It has been a great season for De Minaur–that’s why he is in Turin, after all. The world No. 9 is sporting a 47-21 record that would be even better if not for a hip injury sustained at Wimbledon. However, De Minaur is 0-2 this week with a 6-3, 6-4 setback against Sinner and a 6-2, 6-4 loss to Medvedev.
Fritz is also wrapping up his best-ever season. The fifth-ranked American boasts a 50-22 record that is highlighted by his first Grand Slam final appearance at the U.S. Open (lost to Sinner). Fritz opened in Turin with a 6-4, 6-3 upset of Medvedev before succumbing to Sinner 6-4, 6-4.
Although De Minaur has played well in this matchup, Fritz has much more and much better Nitto ATP Finals experience. The 27-year-old reached the semifinals in 2022, compiling at overall 2-2 record. This time around he is 1-1 and played well in each of his first two matches inside Inalpi Arena. With more confidence and also more firepower to hit through a relatively slow indoor hard court, Fritz should have the edge in this one.
Pick: Fritz in 3
WWW?
Fritz in 2….experience counts.
yep
Fritz in 2 ALEX IS DONE I’ve had every prediction right so far in terms of outcome scoring
in the correct # of sets?
Yea 2