The 2024 ATP season is finally coming to end, but not before one last event that is as prestigious as it gets outside of the four majors. It’s the Nitto ATP Finals, an eight-man showdown that will be played in Turin, Italy for the fourth time.
What won’t be decided in Turin is the year-end world No. 1 ranking. Jannik Sinner, who split the four Grand Slams with Carlos Alcaraz at two titles apiece, has been the best and certainly the most consistent player all season long. The Italian clinched the well-deserved top spot many weeks ago. Still, the stakes at the Nitto ATP Finals are sky high not only in the ranking-points department but also in terms prize money and general prestige.
It’s time break down the upcoming festivities as eight of the best players in the world come together for the year’s grand finale.
Nitto ATP Finals
Where: Turin, Italy
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 200 for RR win, 400 for SF win, 500 for final win
Top seed: Jannik Sinner
2023 champion: Novak Djokovic (not playing)
Prize money:
| Alternate | $155,000 |
| Participation Fee | $331,000* |
| Round-robin match win | $396,500 |
| Semifinal match win | $1,123,400 |
| Final win | $2,237,200 |
| Undefeated champion | $4,881,500 |
1 match: $165,500
2 matches: $248,250
3 matches: $331,000
Nastase Group
Jannik Sinner
Daniil Medvedev
Taylor Fritz
Alex de Minaur
Newcombe Group
Alexander Zverev
Carlos Alcaraz
Casper Ruud
Andrey Rublev
Thursday’s draw ceremony produced the most well-balanced groups possible. The top-seeded Sinner finds himself alongside No. 4 seed Daniil Medvedev, while No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev is with the third-seeded Alcaraz. A Sinner-Medvedev combo is probably the weaker of the two given Medvedev’s current struggles, but that group landed an in-form Taylor Fritz instead of a flailing Casper Ruud. Rounding out the two quartets are Andrey Rublev (with Zverev) and De Minaur (with Sinner). Those two guys can arguably be considered as equal; De Minaur is playing better right now, but Rublev is an experience year-end championship participant and his game style also makes him more dangerous to higher-ranked opponents.
The draw sets up especially well for Zverev. He is an impressive 5-5 lifetime against Alcaraz, including 2-0 on indoor hard courts. Ruud has been horrible since the end of the clay-court swing and probably won’t win a single match this coming week. Zverev is 6-3 against Rublev and eased past the Russian 6-4, 6-4 in their most recent meeting at the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals. In the other group, Fritz vs. De Minaur could be the key match in terms of semifinal qualification–especially if Medvedev’s woes continue.
Picks
Nastase Group
Sinner over De Minaur in 2
Fritz over Medvedev in 3
Sinner over Fritz in 2
De Minaur over Medvedev in 3
Sinner over Medvedev in 2
De Minaur over Fritz in 3
Newcombe Group
Zverev over Rublev in 2
Alcaraz over Ruud in 2
Alcaraz over Zverev in 3
Rublev over Ruud in 3
Zverev over Ruud in 2
Rublev over Alcaraz in 3
Semifinals: (1 Nastase) Sinner over (2 Newcombe) Alcaraz in 3, (1 Newcombe) Zverev over (2 Nastase) De Minaur in 2
Final: Sinner over Zverev in 3
who ya got?
Great field in Turin….I like Carlos to win it all
Sinner over Zverev.
likely