Rolex Paris Masters preview and predictions

The Rolex Paris Masters is here, which means the 2024 tennis season is coming to an end for a whole host of players. After this Masters 1000 tournament, there are only a pair of 250s on the schedule (Belgrade and Metz) followed by the Nitto ATP Finals for the top eight.  

Novak Djokovic has withdrawn, but everyone else in the 18 is playing and 27 of the top 30 are taking the court. It’s a cram course in the race to Turin with a whole bunch of points available and four spots not yet clinched. 

Let’s take a look at what could be in store for the high-stakes Paris Masters. 

Rolex Paris Masters
 
Where: Paris, France 
Surface: Indoor hard 
Points: 1000 
Prize money: 5,950,575 Euros 

Top seed: Jannik Sinner 
2024 champion: Novak Djokovic (not playing) 

Draw analysis: Sinner has reached the final at four consecutive events dating back to the Cincinnati Masters, winning three of those (Cincinnati, the U.S. Open, and Shanghai). Now he looks to put the exclamation point on an amazing season in which he will finish year-end No. 1 in the world. However, Sinner’s draw is not a favorable one. The Italian may have to beat Ben Shelton, former Paris champion Holger Rune, and either Taylor Fritz or Alex de Minaur just to reach the semifinals.  

Elsewhere in the top half of the bracket, Rublev is clinging to the all-important No. 8 position in the 2024 race. The Russian is on course to meet Francisco Cerundolo in round two, Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last 16, and Alexander Zverev in the quarters. Tsitsipas would have to win the title to move into the top eight. 

On the other side, Alcaraz has a mostly favorable path in Paris–at the very least through the third round. The second-ranked Spaniard could run into Tommy Paul in the last eight and Turin hopeful Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals. Potential semifinal opponents for Alcaraz from an extremely deep section are Daniil Medvedev, Grigor Dimitrov, Frances Tiafoe, Matteo Berrettini, Tomas Machac, and Basel winner Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. 

Tiafoe and Mpetshi Perricard have to go head-to-head right off the bat. Other marquee first-round matchups are Berrettini vs. Alexei Popyrin, Jack Draper vs. Jiri Lechecka, Hubert Hurkacz vs. Alex Michelsen, and Ugo Humbert vs. Brandon Nakashima. 

Hot: Jannik Sinner, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Lorenzo Musetti, Arthur Fils, Jerry Shang, Flavio Cobolli, Karen Khachanov, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Tomas Machac, Jack Draper 

Cold: Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Richard Gasquet, Nicolas Jarry, Alejandro Tabilo, Jan-Lennard Struff, Sebastian Baez 
 
Quarterfinal predictions: Jannik Sinner over Taylor Fritz, Arthur Fils over Andrey Rublev, Daniil Medvedev over Tomas Machac, and Tommy Paul over Carlos Alcaraz 

Semifinals: Sinner over Fils and Medvedev over Paul 

Final: Sinner over Medvedev