The best current rivalry in tennis will add another chapter when Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz collide for the 11th time in their careers on Wednesday, this time in the China Open final.
It should really be a fun one with a title on the line, ending a streak of five consecutive semifinal contests in the head-to-head series. This marks just their second final against each other and first above the ATP 250 level. Sinner won their only previous championship match 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-1 on the red clay of Umag two years ago and he also triumphed in the semis of this same Beijing event last fall via a 7-6(4), 6-1 decision. However, Alcaraz leads their overall rivalry 6-4 (5-4 on the main tour) and is 2-0 this season with victories at the Indian Wells Masters and French Open (both in final sets).
“It’s going to be a tough match,” Sinner said. “We know each other very well now, but every match is different, so the situation on the court is also a bit different than it was (in) the last two matches…. It’s going to be tactical. I’m looking forward to it.”
Who wouldn’t be?
Sinner, especially, should be chomping at the bit for this one–and not just because he has lost twice in a row to Alcaraz. This sets up nicely for the world No. 1, as he is right at home on a relatively fast hard court. Moreover, Sinner is an incredible 16-4 lifetime in finals, 6-0 this year, and 9-0 in his last nine against opponents other than Novak Djokovic.
Still, Alcaraz cannot be discounted. The third-ranked Spaniard has been the more dominant player this week against superior competition, rolling over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Tallon Griekspoor, Karen Khachanov, and Daniil Medvedev without dropping a set. Sinner lost sets to Nicolas Jarry and Roman Safiullin before scraping past both Jiri Lehecka and Bu Yunchaokete in second-set tiebreakers.
There is no reason to be alarmed by Sinner’s relative struggles, however. Last year in Beijing the story was basically the exact same through three rounds, with the Italian just barely advancing while Alcaraz coasted into the semis. But it was Sinner who prevailed on his eventual way to the title.
Anything less than another instant classic between Sinner and Alcaraz would be a disappointment, but the majority of the check marks in this particularly matchup on Wednesday are in favor of the top seed and defending champion.
Pick: Sinner in 3
This write up is titling in favor of Sinner. Truth be told Alcaraz is a bit more creative and adds varieties to his game. If he wants to, he will beat Sinner. Problem is will he turn up tomorrow? Only he can answer that question.
WHO YA GOT?
Should be a thriller, but I like Alcaraz in 3.