U.S. Open R4 previews and predictions: Sinner vs. Paul, Medvedev vs. Borges

The marquee matchup at the U.S. Open on Monday pits world No. 1 Jannik Sinner against Tommy Paul. Whoever wins will face either Daniil Medvedev or Nuno Borges in the quarterfinals at Flushing Meadows.

(1) Jannik Sinner vs. (14) Tommy Paul

Based on what’s left in the U.S. Open draw (or more like what isn’t left in the draw, as both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz are out), Sinner vs. Paul would be worthy of a final. Instead, they will square off during fourth-round action on Monday. This marks their fourth encounter, with Sinner leading the head-to-head series 2-1. The Italian got the job done 6-7(4), 7-6(4), 6-3 at the 2022 Madrid Masters and 6-4, 6-4 in last year’s Toronto semifinals, while Paul prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 two summers ago on the grass courts of Eastbourne.

Fast forward to 2024 and both guys are playing the best tennis of their careers. Sinner is up to No. 1 in the world and has improved to 51-5 this season with victories in New York over Mackenzie McDonald, Alex Michelsen, and Christopher O’Connell. Paul, who has ousted Winston-Salem champion Lorenzo Sonego, Max Purcell, and Gabriel Diallo, is 38-14 and could enter the top 10 with two more wins this fortnight. It’s not out of the question that he does it, too. Sinner is obviously a significant favorite, but a hip injury has been somewhat of a factor since Wimbledon and over the course of up to seven best-of-five matches it would not be surprising to see it become an issue at Flushing Meadows. Paul has thrived on the big stage of majors in recent years and home-court advantage only helps the American’s chances. Moreover, as Djokovic and Alcaraz found out the hard way, stranger things have already happened.

Pick: Paul in 5

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Nuno Borges vs. (5) Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev ended the best Grand Slam run of Borges’ career at the 2024 Australian Open. Now the Russian will look to do the exact same thing at the season’s final major, again in the fourth round. Medvedev scored a 6-3, 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-1 victory at Melbourne Park and he currently leads the head-to-head series 2-0 after also beating Borges 7-6(4), 6-4 a few months ago on the grass courts of Halle.

Borges has done extremely well to book another spot in week two of a slam, most notably saving three match points against Jakub Mensik on Saturday. Unfortunately for the world No. 34 from Portugal, Medvedev is not the opponent you want to face when you are coming off a tough five-setter. And you especially don’t want to face him in New York City. This is Medvedev’s favorite tournament; he was the champion in 2021 and is also a two-time runner-up. More of the same has continued this fortnight with routine defeats of Dusan Lajovic, Fabian Marozsan, and Flavio Cobolli. Count on the world No. 5 coasting into the quarterfinals.

Pick: Medvedev in 3

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