U.S. Open expert picks: Who will win the men’s title?

Expert picks are back for the 2024 U.S. Open, where Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz are the top three seeds and title favorites. A three-team panel weighs in with its title predictions.

Ricky: Novak Djokovic

This just sets up too well for Djokovic for me to pick anyone else. Even without taking the draw into account, Sinner and Alcaraz obviously come with question marks. Sinner has been dealing with a hip problem basically all summer and the steroid controversy obviously doesn’t help matters. Alcaraz has been the best player on tour dating back to the clay-court swing, but he looked worn out both physically and mentally in Cincinnati.

Although Djokovic has not yet won a slam in 2024, he is coming off a gold medal at the Olympics and is well rested after skipping both Montreal and Cincinnati. If anything, he may still have some motivation left this season since it’s been 12 months since he last lifted a major trophy. And, of course, you can’t discount the draw. Being on the opposite side from both Sinner and Alcaraz–and Daniil Medvedev, for that matter–is a huge advantage.

Cheryl: Daniil Medvedev

I am surprised to be selecting a player other than Sinner or Alcaraz to win the U.S. Open. But given Sinner’s doping controversy (the Italian tested positive for a banned substance twice in March but was cleared of wrongdoing), and Alcaraz clearly reeling from his loss to Djokovic in the gold medal match of the Olympics, they just don’t feel like the most likely candidates for “favorite.”

Enter Djokovic and Medvedev. Sure, Djokovic hasn’t played on hard courts since spring and Medvedev barely has, but these are perhaps the two most seasoned professionals in the draw. They both love playing in New York and have proven their mettle time and time again. Djokovic’s half of the draw is quite favorable. Sure, he has Alexander Zverev lurking in the semifinals, but until then there is no obvious danger for the Serb. Despite that, I’m picking Medvedev for this year’s edition. The Russian just has this way of playing his best tennis on the New York stage, and–Olympics victory aside–Djokovic has been notably off his game all season. Medvedev for the title over Zverev. 

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Alexander Zverev

With so many possible and potential players that could win the 2024 U.S. Open being drawn into the top half of the bracket, it simply makes sense to see who may have an easier time arriving at the final in the bottom half. Despite the fact that this is where Djokovic, the No. 2 seed and four-time tournament champion resides at this time, Zverev will also appreciate the fact that this is also his half of the draw. The German was this year’s Roland Garros runner-up and despite just one title on the year, he has competed exceptionally well all year. A potential meeting with Djokovic would take place in the semifinal stage. Prior to that matchup, no serious threats appear on the horizon–something that certainly can not be said for the big names in the top half of the draw like: Alcaraz, Sinner, Medvedev, and Hubert Hurkacz. Each of those players would have a serious battle in their respective fourth-round matches, should the seeding hold true. 

Zverev, on the other hand, “should” arrive at the semifinal without having to face a comparable challenge. This is the sole reason I like the world No. 4 to put himself in a position to stymie Djokovic in the semifinal and then proceed to defeat whomever is able to make their way through the rugged, meandering path that is the upper half of the draw. Zverev over an exhausted opponent in the final–I’m thinking over Sinner. 

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