Cincinnati R1 previews and predictions: Paul vs. Cobolli, Khachanov vs. Cerundolo

Main-draw action at the Cincinnati Masters will get underway on Monday, when Tommy Paul and Flavio Cobolli look to continue their outstanding form. Familiar foes Karen Khachanov and Francisco Cerundolo are set for another showdown.

Flavio Cobolli vs. (10) Tommy Paul

U.S. Open seeding is on the line for Cobolli at the Western & Southern Open. He is ranked No. 33 as of Sunday but projected to be 30th by the time he takes the court in Cincinnati on Monday. That means the 22-year-old Italian is in good shape for a seed in New York regardless of his result, but one win would almost certainly lock it up. It would be well deserved, too, because Cobolli has been stellar this season. He is 26-21 and recently advanced to his first ATP final in Washington, D.C. (lost to Sebastian Korda).

Cobolli can only hope that a victory in Cincinnati won’t be necessary for a seed, because he will be hard pressed to secure one against Paul. The 12th-ranked American is enjoying his best year on tour. He is 35-13 with two titles and quarterfinal performances at Wimbledon and the Paris Olympics. Paul lost early in Montreal almost immediately after capturing the bronze medal in doubles with Taylor Fritz, but that should have him rested and ready to go for Cincinnati. It is Cobolli who may be fatigued, so look for the No. 10 seed to capitalize on home-court advantage and cruise into round two.

Pick: Paul in 2

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Karen Khachanov vs. Francisco Cerundolo

Khachanov and Cerundolo will be going head-to-head for the sixth time in their careers on Monday. Surprisingly, all five of their previous encounters have gone Khachanov’s way–most recently via a 6-2, 6-4 beatdown at the Rome Masters this spring. On the bright side for Cerundolo, three of their meetings have required final sets–including a third-set tiebreaker earlier this year at the Miami Masters.

If Cerundolo is ever going to turn the tide, that time is now. The 26th-ranked Argentine has done a fantastic job of turning around what had been a terrible 2024 campaign, reaching the French Open fourth round (lost to Novak Djokovic in five sets) and now winning multiple matches at each of his last three events–including a title in Umag. Khachanov, on the other hand, is a horrendous 2-6 in his last eight matches dating back to Roland Garros with three losses to opponents ranked No. 145 or worse during this cold spell. Don’t be surprised if Cerundolo finally capitalizes against a struggling opponent.

Pick: Cerundolo in 3

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