The race to the World Tour Finals has never been hotter with just one event remaining before the season-ending championship. Paris will determine the final three spots, although Roger Federer has to win only a single match this week in order to punch his ticket. Two places are completely up for grabs, likely coming down to Stanislas Wawrinka, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Richard Gasquet. Even the year-end world No. 1 ranking is still in play between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, the top two seeds in Paris.
BNP Paribas Masters
Where: Paris, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: 2,646,495 Euros
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: David Ferrer
Draw analysis: There was some home cooking last week in Basel with Federer’s favorable draw, but no such luck for Frenchmen this week in Paris. Three of the country’s best players are in the same eighth of the bracket, and in the same quarter as Nadal. Tsonga could face Julien Benneteau in the second round and one of those two could run into Gasquet in the last 16. As for Nadal, he skipped Basel and should be rejuvenated after a successful Asian swing. The Spaniard will open against either Dmitry Tursunov or Marcel Granollers before a possible date with Jerzy Janowicz. Nadal’s draw appears to be a good one from start to finish, but it’s never a cakewalk for anyone at a 48-man Masters event.
In the second section, Gael Monfils has to battle Basel semifinalist Vasek Pospisil in the opening round with the winner to get Tomas Berdych. If one Frenchman has a real opportunity in this quarter, it is wild card Nicolas Mahut—not No. 15 seed Gilles Simon. Mahut has been in awesome form at both the ATP and Challenger levels this season and his Paris path could feature a slumping Alexandr Dolgopolov, an injured Simon, and an exhausted David Ferrer in the first three rounds. Milos Raonic, meanwhile, is on a collision course with Denis Itomin for the round of 32 and with Berdych for the round of 16.
Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro just squared off in the Basel title match and they may go head-to-head less than a week later for what would be their 19th career meeting. Of course, a lot of work in the midst of quick turnarounds must be done before that potential quarterfinal comes to fruition. Mikhail Youzhny (who captured the Valencia title on Sunday) and Tommy Haas loom large near Federer, while Del Potro could be greeted in the third round by either Michael Llodra or Grigor Dimitrov. The Argentine’s opener may be a high-profile one against Marin Cilic, who had his drug suspension controversially reduced and is making a sudden return to tennis in Paris.
Arguably the toughest of French draws is that of Benoit Paire, who is not even 100 percent physically and would have to go up against Djokovic if Paire wins his opening match. Talk about adding insult to injury! Djokovic’s road to the last four might feature a pair of familiar foes. John Isner, the Serb’s nearest seed, is 2-3 lifetime in the head-to-head series after stunning Djokovic this summer in the Cincinnati quarters. Wawrinka, a potential quarterfinal opponent, has played 10 sets in two 2013 matches against Djokovic but has no wins to show for it. Wawrinka has cooled off a bit this fall, but at least he will be well-rested after an early ouster in Basel.
First-round upset alert: (WC) Michael Llodra over Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov is in stellar form but has played a ton of tennis this fall. Although Llodra is not at the top of his game at the moment, he is an established force on indoor hard courts. The 33-year-old has been to the Paris semifinals two of the last three seasons.
Second-round upset alerts: Ernests Gulbis over (8) Richard Gasquet. Gasquet got destroyed by Llodra in the Basel first round. Was it due to injury, nerves with a World Tour Finals berth at stake, or a strategic ploy to gear up for more important events in Paris and London? Either way, Gulbis is always a dangerous opponent. Of course, the Latvian could just as easily lose to Fernando Verdasco in the first round as he could beat Gasquet.
Philipp Kohlschreiber over (11) Tommy Haas. The two Germans just faced each other in the Valencia first round, with Kohlschreiber prevailing 3-6, 6-3, 6-3. Haas was making a quick turnaround after winning the Vienna title, so he should have a better chance in this one. Still, it has never been a particularly good matchup for him. The head-to-head series is tied 3-3, with Kohlschreiber leading 2-1 since the start of 2012 and 1-0 overall on hard courts.
Jarkko Nieminen over (13) John Isner. Isner is a shadow of his American-loving self when overseas. He has enjoyed some success at this event in the past (semifinals in 2011), but it is an aberration as opposed to the rule. Nieminen, a quarterfinalist in Tokyo and Valencia, is 0-4 lifetime vs. Isner but all four matches were played in the U.S. and three of the four were extremely competitive.
(WC) Nicolas Mahut over (15) Gilles Simon. If Mahut takes out Dolgopolov in round one, he will be the underdog only on paper against his fellow Frenchman. Mahut has won three of his last four matches at the ATP level and nine of his last 10 on the Challenger circuit. Simon is on a three-match losing streak after going down to Alejandro Falla 6-1, 6-0 in Valencia. It just doesn’t get much worse than that.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro, Milos Raonic, Fabio Fognini, Dmitry Tursunov, Nicolas Mahut, Vasek Pospisil, Mikhail Youzhny, Grigor Dimitrov, Edouard Roger-Vasselin
Cold: John Isner, Gilles Simon, Fernando Verdasco, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic, Benoit Paire
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Ernests Gulbis, Milos Raonic over David Ferrer, Michael Llodra over Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Stanislas Wawrinka over Novak Djokovic
Semifinals: Nadal over Raonic and Wawrinka over Llodra
Final: Nadal over Wawrinka
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
[polldaddy poll=7507477]
Ricky, we know the tourney is in Paris, and there’s nothing to complain about Rafa’s draw, but it’s still indoor hard court, lol! Have you ever before picked Rafa to win an indoor hard court event?
Ricky is also predicting Wawa to take out Djoker in the quarterfinals. No Delpo getting through to the quarterfinals.
I am not so sure that Gulbis will get through his part of the draw to meet Rafa in the quarterfinals.
Interesting pick from Ricky, to say the least given that Rafa has never won this event.
Delpo is GASSED. He might lose to CILIC!
Agree, Delpo is done for now. There’s no reason for him to go on a long and exhausting run in Paris. He wil save himself for London. But I think, Wawa will only take out the Djoker, if the Djoker wants to be taken out, in order to move on to greater things, thereby conceding this year’s No 1 spot without much of a fight to Rafa.
Ricky – please could we have a poll to vote on the order of players leaving Paris for London ?
you mean like who will get the final 2 spots?
or the exact order 1-8?
You know I dont mean that 😉
oh you mean the order that they lose in Paris?
Exactly
Good news guys. 150 points from Chile have been added to Rafa. Rafa is now 550 points ahead of Novak in rankings (not RACE) . He is at 11670 whereas Novak at 11120
David Ferrer is at No 3..yikes 🙂
The Race to London and the ATP 52-week rankings will become equal on Monday after the Paris Masters.
^^^Ferrer’s 3rd week at No.3 but he has 1000 points to defend this week
You have been right all the time. Rafa did NOT get penalized for skipping Basel! I wonder, why not.
littlefoot@October 28, 2013 at 8:15 am
Milos Raonic, who also withdrew from Basel, wasn’t penalized either. Both Rafa and M.Raonic have played four ATP-500 events and fulfilled their obligations towards the ATP in a proper manner. I think, they might have been penalized, if they had SUDDENLY decided to play in Tokyo/Beijing instead of playing in Basel. But, Tokyo and Beijing were in their personal calendars long ago.
—The ATP rulebook, page 150
e) Replacement Event. A player who has received a zero (0) point ranking penalty for withdrawing from an ATP World Tour 500 event may replace the zero (0) point by playing an additional ATP World Tour 500 event in that same calendar year for a total of four (4) played. The replacement tournament must be AFTER the 500 withdrawal that has resulted in a ranking penalty. Only one (1) additional ATP World Tour 500 event per year may be used to replace an ATP World Tour 500 ranking penalty. —
But, augusta, that makes even less sense, since the rule clearly states, that the replacement tourney must be played AFTER the withdrawal.
littlefoot@October 28, 2013 at 8:58 am
They didn’t play in Tokyo/Beijing with purpose to skip the Basel tournament.
I see, what you mean, augusta, and you may be right, since they did NOT get penalized. Still, the wording of this whole set of words seems pretty ambigous to me.
#nowordwithoutmylawyer
Tignor has Novak over Tsonga in the final. No Rafa in sight. If that comes to pass, WTF will be VERY interesting, since Rafa would have to win more than two Matches for YE No 1 in London.
I checked out Tignor’s predictions on tennis.com. I was really surprised to see that he didn’t even have Rafa making the quarterfinals. Tsonga in the final? Not gonna happen, even though he has done well here in the past, as have other French players.
The WTF will be too nerve wracking, if that comes to pass. I am hoping that Rafa gets a good result here.
What does Tignor know? Rafa will make the final in Paris………….guaranteed.
Vamos!
Oh and for what it’s worth, the wording of those rules was quite ambiguous!
Can’t figure out how Rafa wasn’t penalized for his Basel withdrawal. Tennis is complicated.
Sanju the genius Expert!!!!
RT @SharkoTennis: “Nadal had 0-pter from Valencia last yr dropped off & allowed his 150 pts from Vina del mar to count.”
ST didn’t actually who Rafa would lose to so his predictions are a bit dubious to say the least. Anyway predictions don’t count for a row of beans.
JJ came close in Montreal so he will be a tough out for Rafa in Paris indoors IMO.
Face it. Indoor tennis is not his forte, no?
it’s not his #CupOfTea you might say
#PruneJuice
It’s fair to say that indoor tennis is not Rafa’s strong suit.
I don’t like Rafa meeting JJ in his second match.
Thankyou guys 🙂
Sanju,
You deserve it for fighting the good fight and sticking to your guns! 🙂
Bah humbug! 🙁
#GodItsKillingMe
Rafa’s pre-tournament interview.
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2013/10/paris-prognosis/49596/#.Um-sGItFDIU
nadline@October 29, 2013 at 1:40 pm
It’s “Paris Prognosis”.
I posted Rafa’s interview on Rafael Nadal page/thread/section yesterday at 6:14 pm.