Rafael Nadal has no days off following an almost four-hour thriller against Mariano Navone in the Bastad quarterfinals. Meanwhile, a Hamburg semifinal showdown on Saturday pits Sebastian Baez against Arthur Fils.
Nordea Open: (WC) Rafael Nadal vs. (Q) Duje Ajdukovic
Nadal will be back on the court in Bastad about 24 hours after outlasting Mariano Navone in three hours and 59 minutes on Friday. The 38-year-old survived that quarterfinal thriller 6-7(2), 7-5, 7-5, earning a place in his first ATP semifinal since Wimbledon in 2022.
Up next for Nadal on Saturday afternoon is Ajdukovic. Who is Ajdukovic? He is a 23-year-old Croat who comes in at No. 130 in the rankings. Adjdukovic obviously had to qualify just to get into the Bastad main draw, which he did at the expense of Dmitry Popko and Alejandro Moro Canas. He has parlayed that success into main-draw defeats of Luca van Assche, Pavel Kotov, and Thiago Monteiro–the latter two in three sets. There is no need to overanalyze or overthink how this one is going to play out. If Nadal is close to 100 percent physically, he should roll; if he does not have enough time to recover, a golden opportunity awaits Ajdukovic.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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Hamburg Open: (3) Sebastian Baez vs. (5) Arthur Fils
Baez and Fils will also be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they clash in the Hamburg semis on Saturday. Thus continues a nice summer run for Fils, who advanced to the Halle quarterfinals and the Wimbledon fourth round. Showing no signs of slowing down amidst a move from grass to clay, Fils earned a spot in the last four this week by beating Jaume Munar, Laso Djere, and Holger Rune.
Baez’s trip to the semis came at the expense of Dominik Koepfer, Dusan Lajovic, and Luciano Darderi. The 19th-ranked Argentine is one win away from his ninth ATP final and two wins away from his seventh title. All but one final appearance has come on clay and he is seeking his second ATP 500 winner’s trophy (previously Rio de Janeiro earlier this season). On any other surface a significant edge would go to Fils, but on clay Baez may be able to grind his way through what is sure to be a competitive, high-quality contest.
Pick: Baez in 3
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Aju in 2
Baez in 3