French Open final expert picks: Alcaraz vs. Zverev

Expert picks are back for the French Open final on Sunday, when Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev collide in a matchup of first-time finalists at this tournament. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(4) Alexander Zverev vs. (3) Carlos Alcaraz

Ricky: Alcaraz is a sizable favorite in this match. So the question is: can Zverev be competitive? The answer is absolutely yes. He actually matches up well with Alcaraz, with a 5-4 lead in the head-to-head series. That features a 2-1 record in Grand Slams, including one win already at Roland Garros (2022 quarterfinals) and another earlier this season at the Australian Open (also in the quarterfinals). Zverev’s only slam loss to Alcaraz (2023 U.S. Open quarterfinals) came immediately following an absolute marathon against Jannik Sinner that left the German with nothing left in the tank. In addition to this being a favorable matchup, Zverev has been in awesome form this spring and already owns one clay-court title at the Rome Masters.

It’s clear that Zverev has a great chance on Sunday. Now the second question is: can he get across the finish line? The answer is maybe not. Zverev is the best player on the ATP Tour currently without a major title and the pressure to win one is mounting. His only previous final (2020 U.S. Open) saw him choke while serving for the match at 5-4 in the fifth before losing to Dominic Thiem in a tiebreaker. Zverev’s service yips and overall mental struggles have improved, but he still wasn’t convincing in closing out recent victories over Alex de Minaur and Casper Ruud. Meanwhile, Alcaraz is already a two-time slam champion with a history of stepping up his game in pressure-packed moments. The Spaniard is too talented to get blown out, and if the match is close he undoubtedly has the mental edge late. Alcaraz in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-5.

Cheryl: Alcaraz and Zverev will meet for the 10th time on Sunday in their biggest match to date. It’s a worthy men’s final. Zverev holds a scant 5-4 record over the Spanish superstar, and it’s the second major in a row that they have run into each other–so it’s shaping up to be a legitimate rivalry. Maybe not to the extent nor with the sizzle of the Roger Federer-Rafael Nadal rivalry, but Amelie Mauresmo (tournament director of Roland Garros) must be pleased all the same.

The final isn’t without controversy. Until Friday, Zverev was embroiled in a court case in Germany for shoving and strangling ex-partner Brenda Patea, also the mother of his child. It is the second such accusation against the German. Ms. Patea ultimately decided to drop the charges, but the savvy French crowd will be all too aware of the situation. The fans will be firmly in Alcaraz’s court, but he was unconvincing in a messy semifinal win over Jannik Sinner. Both men are excellent on clay, although Zverev has had the better clay-court swing with a title at the Rome Masters just before he came to Paris. Alcaraz has the benefit of prior major titles, having won Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. So if Zverev has a bout of nerves, Alcaraz will be able to take advantage. Regardless, I expect superior form to rule the day. Zverev in 5: 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-5.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Zverev is on a very short list of ATP players that concern Alcaraz. The German has won five of their nine meetings, including a quarterfinal matchup at Roland Garros two years ago. A few weeks ago,Zverev took advantage of a decimated field to win his sixth Masters 1000 event in Rome. Alcaraz struggled mightily early on in his semifinal against Sinner before correcting course and prevailing in five sets. The Spaniard confirmed post match that he learned from the disappointment in his semifinal last year against Djokovic and that he was better prepared this time when he played poorly and doubts crept in while contesting a match deep in a major. Whatever lingering ailments from earlier in the year are seemingly no longer an issue for Alcaraz, as evidenced by his performances throughout the tournament and especially in his semifinal win that lasted in excess of four hours. 

Zverev has a shot–a very good shot–to win and has played very well in Paris.  Unfortunately, he does not have a major yet and he is facing one of the elite players on tour in a major final. Thus the overall picture of the career accomplishments to date for Alcaraz as well as what he has since been able to correct when he faltered against Djokovic will be more than enough for him to notch his third different major title. Alcaraz in 4: 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4.

[yop_poll id=”1196″]