French Open expert picks: Who will win the men’s title?

Expert picks are back for the 2024 French Open, which projects to be one of the most wide-open Grand Slams on the men’s side in recent memory. A three-team panel weighs in with its title predictions.

Ricky: Novak Djokovic

I’m pretty much going with Novak Djokovic by process of elimination. Carlos Alcaraz is injured. Jannik Sinner is injured. Daniil Medvedev doesn’t appear to be a serious contender on clay. Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud, and Andrey Rublev have never won a slam. Sure this is definitely a spot where someone could finally win his first major, but at the same time it’s probably not wise to predict it. The likelihood of it is slim.

As for Djokovic, it’s true that he hasn’t been close to his usual self in 2024. Still, I wouldn’t overreact to bad losses at meaningless tournaments (yes, he has all but said that at this point in his career nothing matters other than slams and the Olympics). The Djokovic that will be on display at Roland Garros is almost certain to look a lot different than the Djokovic who stumbled and bumbled in Miami, Rome, and elsewhere. If the Serb can’t win this slam given the status of the rest of the tour, he may not be able to win another one. And I have a hard time believing he won’t win another one.

Cheryl: Alexander Zverev

This is as wide open as this tournament has been since Rafael Nadal started his reign of terror back in 2005. It’s a year of opportunity in what has been the least suspenseful major on the calendar. So when I asked myself who we might see during week two, the answer was fairly simple to provide. Tsitsipas, Zverev, Ruud, and Djokovic should all be there. But answering which one can actually win? That’s a harder question to answer.

I have lingering doubts about the mental toughness of Tsitsipas and Ruud to get it done when it’s all on the line. And, of course, we all know by now that Dkokovic knows how to win. He does that even when he’s not playing well. The problem is that he’s really not playing well right now. The-of-five format helps him out because it gives him time to intimidate early opponents, but I can’t see him for the title at this point. That leaves Zverev. He is peaking at the right time and he’ll be delighted to be called opportunistic if it means he pockets his first major.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Stefanos Tsitsipas

In 1997, one Roland Garros semifinal featured world No. 66 Gustavo Kuerten versus world No. 122 Filip Dewulf–a qualifier. Kuerten played (and won) a Challenger immediately preceding his French Open title that year. In 2003, Martin Verkerk reached the Roland Garros final–having never previously played the event. Verkerk’s career later finished at 25-25 on the ATP Tour. While these results actually took place, the reality of something similar happening this year is a longshot despite the fact that many consider this major to be up for grabs; unseeded players as well as double-digit seeds have been reaching Masters 1000 semifinals and finals this year on clay with regularity. That had certainly not been the case ever since Nadal stormed onto the scene and won the French Open in 2005 in addition to another 13 times.

My pre-draw pick to win it is Stefanos Tsitsipas, the 2021 runner-up. The Greek won the Monte-Carlo Masters for the third time this year. It’s also worth remembering that he had a two-set lead on Djokovic in the French final three years ago before managing to win just nine games in the last three sets. This year he defeated Zverev, Sinner, and Ruud en route to his Monte-Carlo triumph. Even though we have seen some recent career-best efforts from players in their 30s, Tsitsipas at 25 knows this may very well be his best shot to win a major going forward. As a result, we should see a significantly more dedicated and determined effort from him this year. His run to the final three years ago is more than most in the draw have accomplished and he will build on that valuable experience.

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