Rome R4 previews and predictions: Medvedev vs. Paul, Hurkacz vs. Baez

Daniil Medvedev is the top seed remaining in Rome and he will face Tommy Paul during fourth-round action on Tuesday. The winner will go up against either Hubert Hurkacz or Sebastian Baez in the quarterfinals.

(14) Tommy Paul vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev is the defending champion of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia and the top seed left in the draw following Novak Djokovic’s ouster on Sunday, but that doesn’t necessarily make him the title favorite. Rome’s No. 2 seed has–despite last year’s success at the Foro Italico–has never been at his best on clay, he sustained a hip injury at the Madrid Masters, and he needed two hours and 50 minutes to outlast Hamad Medjedovic on Monday night. Medvedev seems to have put any physical concerns to rest and has done well to get past both Medjedovic and Jack Draper, but the 28-year-old Russian is hardly in dominant form.

Up next for Medvedev on Tuesday is a fourth meeting with Paul. All three of their previous encounters have gone the world No. 4’s way, including via a 1-6, 7-6(3), 6-2 decision earlier this spring in the Indian Wells semifinals. Paul also took a set in their only previous clay-court clash, going down 3-6, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 at Roland Garros in 2021. The 16th-ranked American may be poised to get over the hump this time. He is 17-7 in 2024 and would probably be in serious Nitto ATP Finals contention (currently 17th in the race) if not for an ankle injury sustained in his opening match at the Miami Masters. When healthy Paul has been in great form this season, and easy Rome wins over Aslan Karatsev and Dominik Koepfer have done nothing to halt his progress. Paul is extremely comfortable on clay, which gives him a great opportunity to pull off an upset on Tuesday.

Pick: Paul in 3

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(7) Hubert Hurkacz vs. (17) Sebastian Baez

Hurkacz and Baez will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Tuesday. Although reaching the fourth round is nothing special for a player seeded seventh, Hurkacz has looked awesome so far in Rome. The ninth-ranked Pole opened with a 6-1, 6-3 beatdown of 10-time champion Rafael Nadal before blowing past 2023 French Open quarterfinalist Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-6(7), 6-2. Thus continues a stellar clay-court run for Hurkacz, whose European swing began with a title in Estoril.

Baez is without question a clay-court specialist, but for the most part he has done the majority of his damage on the Golden Swing as opposed to in Europe. That may be changing in Rome, where the 19th-ranked Argentine has advanced by beating Dusan Lajovic in a pair of tiebreakers and Holger Rune in three sets. Although clay gives Baez a chance, this is a bad matchup for him on any surface. His serve is a liability and if you can’t hold serve against Hurkacz, you can’t be competitive–just ask Nadal. Look for Hurkacz to advance to the quarterfinals in convincing fashion.

Pick: Hurkacz in 2

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