Rome R4 previews and predictions: Tsitsipas vs De Minaur, Dimitrov vs. Fritz

The Rome draw may be somewhat depleted, but there are plenty of all-seeded showdowns in Tuesday’s fourth-round lineup. No. 6 Stefanos Tsitsipas is facing No. 9 Alex de Minaur, while No. 8 Grigor Dimitrov is going up against No. 11 Taylor Fritz.

(6) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (9) Alex de Minaur

Tsitsipas and De Minaur will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers–and no, that is not a misprint–when they collide yet again in round four of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Tuesday. It is one of the most lopsided matchups currently going on tour, as Tsitsipas leads the head-to-head series 12-2 overall and 10-1 at the ATP level. However, De Minaur actually won their most recent contest 1-6, 6-3, 6-3 earlier this season on the hard courts of Acapulco–his first victory over Tsitsipas since beating the Greek at the 2017 Surbiton Challenger. They have squared off three times on clay and Tsitsipas is unsurprisingly 3-0 in those matches.

Despit those numbers, Tuesday’s tilt figures to be competitive. De Minaur broke into the top 10 earlier this year and currently registers at No. 11, boasting a 25-9 record in 2024. So far in Rome the 25-year-old Australian has defeated Roberto Carballes Baena and Madrid runner-up Felix Auger-Aliassime. Tsitsipas started the season somewhat slow, but–as usual–clay is proving to be just what the doctor ordered. The world No. 8 triumphed in Monte-Carlo, finished runner-up in Barcelona, and has bounced back from an early loss in Madrid with Rome victories over Jan-Lennard Struff and Cameron Norrie. It may not be easy, but Tsitsipas should once again have the edge over De Minaur on this surface.

Pick: Tsitsipas in 3

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(11) Taylor Fritz vs. (8) Grigor Dimitrov

We are near the midway point of the tennis season and Dimitrov has established himself as a serious contender for a place in the Nitto ATP Finals, a tournament he won in 2017. The 32-year-old Bulgarian is up to No. 10 in the rankings and No. 9 in the race to Turin on the strength of a 24-7 match record in 2024. A champion in Brisbane and runner-up in both Marseille and Miami, Dimitrov has advanced in Rome with straight-set defeats of Yoshihito Nishioka and Terence Atmane.

Up next for Dimitrov on Tuesday is a third meeting with Fritz. Both of their previous encounters have come on clay, with Fritz prevailing 7-6(8), 7-6(4) at the 2018 Madrid event before Dimitrov survived a 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(2) thriller in the 2023 Geneva semifinals. Fritz is right behind his opponent at 10th in the race (13th in the rankings) thanks in part to a title in Delray Beach and a recent runner-up effort on the red clay of Munich. The American has remained in fine form with a semifinal showing in Madrid and Rome wins at the expense of Fabio Fognini and Sebastian Korda. This is about as 50-50 as a match can get, but Dimitrov is slightly more rested following Fritz’s Madrid exploits and the veteran probably moves a bit better than Fritz on dirt.

Pick: Dimitrov in 3

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