Shanghai R2 previews and picks: Raonic vs. Verdasco, Robredo vs. Fognini

Milos Raonic is back in action as he goes up against Fernando Verdasco on Wednesday in Shanghai. Meanwhile, Tommy Robredo and Fabio Fognini are facing each other for the second time in two weeks. Chris Skelton previews the action.

Fernando Verdasco vs. (10) Milos Raonic

A clear trend has defined this rivalry though its five meetings. Raonic has held the upper hand on indoor hard courts, but Verdasco has won all three of their matches on clay. That pattern fits the strengths and weaknesses of the young Canadian, unsurpassed in his massive serve-forehand combinations and vulnerable in longer rallies. Thus, his form and style has set the tone in their encounters so far.

Not afraid to lash out on serves and forehands himself, Verdasco brings a more aggressive outlook than most Spaniards. Both of his hard-court losses to Raonic came in extremely tight encounters that could have tilted toward either man, featuring three tiebreakers in five sets. Often fragile at decisive moments, Verdasco lost all three of those ‘breakers. Despite his Wimbledon quarterfinal earlier this summer, he also brings less impressive form than does Raonic into this meeting.

Toppled by Ivan Dodig at the U.S. Open and Sergiy Stakhovksy in St. Petersburg (both first-round matches), Verdasco improved by taking a set in Beijing from eventual champion Novak Djokovic. But that accomplishment does not compare to Raonic’s sweep through Bangkok and Tokyo, winning the title at the former and reaching the final at the latter. The prospect of qualifying for the World Tour Finals, tenuous as it is, may have motivated the world No. 11 to produce a strong fall. He upset Tomas Berdych in Bangkok before giving Juan Martin Del Potro all that he could handle in Tokyo.

The relatively slow hard court in Shanghai may offer a neutral ground in this matchup between the fast courts of San Jose and Memphis, where Raonic won, and the gritty red clay in Rome and Madrid, where Verdasco prevailed. Raonic may have arrived weary from the previous two weeks, but his serve should frustrate Verdasco into costly mistakes on the handful of key points that decide their match.

Pick: Raonic in 3

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Fabio Fognini vs. (16) Tommy Robredo

Both of these clay specialists caught fire on their favorite surface during the spring and summer. While Fognini won the first two titles of his career in July–one at the 500 level–Robredo reached the Roland Garros quarterfinals after a series of thrilling comebacks. Only one of the dirt-devils extended his momentum to hard courts, however.

Worn down by his summer successes in Europe, Fognini faded sharply when he traveled to North America and left no impact on the hard courts. He did revive last week by reaching his first quarterfinal of the year on that surface in Beijing, but he came within a tiebreaker of losing in the Shanghai first round to unheralded compatriot Paolo Lorenzi. By contrast, Robredo reached the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open, where Fognini lost in the first round. Among the opponents whom he defeated there was Roger Federer.

In his next tournament, however, Robredo lost to none other than…Fabio Fognini. Having defeated the exhausted Italian in Umag this summer, the Spaniard lost a tense three-setter to him in Beijing. Robredo has dominated Fognini on clay and owns much the stronger resume overall, but Fognini has won both of their previous meetings on post-U.S. Open hard courts. Fognini generally takes the initiative earlier in the point than Robredo does, which should help him on hard courts much more than clay. Plenty of long rallies are still likely to ensue as each man looks to eke all the success that he can from the breakthrough seasons that they have enjoyed.

Pick: Fognini in 3

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