Expert picks are back for the Australian Open semifinals on Friday, when 10-time champion Novak Djokovic faces world No. 4 Jannik Sinner. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Jannik Sinner
Ricky: Given the lofty standards currently being set by Djokovic and Sinner (when they are on the court at the same time or even when they are playing against anyone else), anything less than an instant classic would be a disappointment. And that’s exactly what we might get. Djokovic is 10-0 lifetime in Australian Open semifinals (and 10-0 in finals, too), but if there is anyone who can challenge him it could be Sinner (or perhaps Carlos Alcaraz in a potential title match). Their rivalry is at a high point now, with Sinner having won three of four encounters last fall (1-1 at the Nitto ATP Finals and then the Italian won from three match points down in the Davis Cup semis). Sinner ended last year as the hottest player on tour and nothing has changed following a quintet of straight-set wins in Melbourne. That’s why he should be competitive on Friday–but I can’t quite pick him to win. Djokovic has won both of their best-of-five matches (at Wimbledon in 2022 and 2023) and nowhere is he tougher to beat than at the Australian Open. 10-0 in AO semis becomes 11-0. Djokovic in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4.
Cheryl: I really want to pick Sinner to win this match. He was my pre-tournament bracket pick to win the whole thing and I think he has looked the best of any competitor on the court. He has recently shown that he is not intimidated by Djokovic, as evidenced by the fact that he’s gotten two wins over the Serb in the last couple of months (NOTE: the ATP website has inexplicably failed to display Sinner’s win in round-robin play at the Nitto Tour Finals). But with that being said, now that the time has come, I think I’m losing my nerve. Because it’s Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open. And, yes, he’s been a little shakier than usual–dropping sets in three of his matches so far. But even though I think Sinner has been the better player, I can’t quite make myself pick against Djokovic in Melbourne until he gives me reason to do so–reasons like losing 15 matches in a row or something. I just can’t do it. Djokovic is the most clutch player of all time and once again playing in the later stages of his best tournament. Sinner might–and probably will–get close. He’ll have chances. But Djokovic is Djokovic and he is undoubtedly the most successful chance-eraser in the history of the sport. Djokovic in 5: 6-7(5), 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): The Davis Cup losses (plural, because singles and doubles) to Sinner at the recent Davis Cup competition sting Djokovic much more than we may think. Somehow the Serb was not able to get it done despite holding multiple match points in their singles match at the semifinal stage. However, whatever the pressures or extracurricular aspects of competing for his nation are, they do not exist at a major for Djokovic. Here it is business as usual, and more importantly, a best-of-five format. Sinner has breezed into the semifinals without dropping a set. The Davis Cup hero’s longest match of the tournament–in the last round against Rublev–lasted only two hours and 39 minutes. Concurrently, Djokovic was forced to work diligently out of the gate–tested unexpectedly sternly by a qualifier and an Aussie, going four sets in each tussle. After correcting course the next two rounds, he again found himself at a set apiece in the quarters with Fritz before putting his patented stranglehold grip on the match–dropping just five games the rest of the way. Although the 36-year-old has played three matches over three hours thus far, it simply will not faze him in this, his 48th major semifinal. If anything, the recent defeats at Sinner’s hands will provide a reminder to close out the match properly and in a timely fashion. Djokovic in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4.
[yop_poll id=”801″]
WWW?
Yes, that’s my pick too. Sinner has the game but I’m not convinced that he has the heart. I would be happy if he proves me otherwise.
And oh boy am I happy, glad he showed the heart!!!!! I actually fell asleep before end so f first set and was really surprised to c that Sinner was one point from winning in str8ts!! Really superb performance from Sinner! He was so fast but Novak did well to keep up although his fans unanimously agree he played horribly completely ignoring the fact that Sinner’s beaten Novak 3 out of the last 4 times they’ve played! But congratulations to Sinner, wishing him best for f luck on Sunday!
As for the other semi hope Zverev wins it! As we speak he is up a break, lost one of them, and his serving is slightly off. Hope he can pull this off!
Sinner in 4
It may be close in the first 3 sets, but unless Djokovic becomes ill or injured, he’ll win the match in the later stages. Sinner’s record in long 5 setters in late stages of slams is not good and he has not participated in long matches for months. If they play the night session, this may be a faster match than we expect with Djokovic winning in 3 or 4 sets.
fair points
Excellent points.
Djokovic in tight four for the reasons above
Wow two cracker semis coming up.
It’s a day match.
Djoker for no 25
Maybe 4 here n str8 sets in finals
good for Sinner
Seems like both Novak and Sabalinka are in good stead to defend their titles this year!
Novak looks like complete shit right now. Challenger level performance
that was diabolical
The Australian Open organisers said, “Enough handouts; time for a new champion”
10 is enough.
Unlike RG that just rolls out the red carpet for Nadal each year.
61 62 in just over a hour ;).
Cant see Djoko coming back from this but you never know.
Not at 37 in a few months
Count him out at your peril!
Not against someone that hasn’t dropped a set all tournament.
Those factors combined make it completely improbable <1%
Yes, think Sinner should’ve done it in 3, but we shall see. Now into 4th set.
horrible match, surprisingly
Why, because your prediction was wrong? You were expecting too much from Djokovic.
he has won this tournament 10 times and had never lost in the semis
what ELSE was there to expect?
True, although at the same time, did he ever look in top form during this tournament?
Credit to Sinner, I think he’ll win this slam now, but it’ll be interesting. A real opportunity for Zverev or Medvedev to have a shot at a less experienced opponent in a GS final.
yep. Final is wide open. You never know who will handle the occasion better.
Wow! Sinner!
14 years age difference makes a difference.
Djokovic had a lot more to do with the outcome than Sinner
That’s right, because he knew he was up against a player that can hurt him.
He can’t go to his bread and butter and get a lot of free points from his opponent.
Look at the positive; you guys have been riding on the back of Djokovic’s formula for 20 years and have done extremely well out of it. Now you just need to find a new one. Lol
Y Ricky, is that the reason Sinner had beaten Novak in the last three times they’ve played? From the beginning of the tournament Novak was already anointed the winner with no one questioning his form even after his cold and “apparent’ wrist injury in the early rounds. But now he’s lost after being thoroughly outplayed even after putting up a strong fight his fitness is suddenly an issue!!! Sinner has Nole”s number and that’s that!!! And even Nole knows it to hence the reason he lost as Sinner made him uncomfortable being so fast and hence was not allowed to play his game! Simple!!
How about giving Sinner real credit for playing so well ,so dominant and so fast…he did not even give djoko a bp..
Yes Novak sprayed errors all over but he did not just decide to do that…something made him or his mind totally not at ease..n it’s the opponent
he was mentally good
he played incredible against Djokovic in the fall. not today.
Sinner didn’t play that well. He was just OK. In normal circumstances, Djokovic would have won this hands down.
this is the correct take
Novak needs a rest. He’ll be back but he’s played a lot of tennis past 6 months and needs a break until Miami or the clay season.
?
he just had a whole offseason
There’s no benefit in him playing in IW or Miami. These are tournaments for up-and-coming players, those in their prime, or those who had an early exit from the AO.
If it were me, I’d rest until Madrid and then go straight to RG.
He needs to protect his body and energy levels going forward and be realistic in terms of his ranking.
not a bad idea
He won the US Open, won Paris, won ATP and played David Cup. Expecting him to win the AO after that at 37 is asking for too much.
He’ll need to schedule really well going forward and make some tough decisions.
this also highlights Nadal’s brilliant record at the French Open.
Winning a major 14 times, out of this world.
Yeah and Novak fans were going on and on about novaks 10 ao > rafa 14 RG…talk of being delusional and cocky
Will be interesting to see what Rafa does at RG this year..I think he will be hungry…it’s just the draw that will determine..
And I agree AO organizers decided enough is enoug. They did it their way by giving him back to back 3 day matches knowing he does not like playing in the heat .he was anyway enjoying luxury of getting scheduled night all the time which is unfair to the rest of field..23 every match at night n it was just too much..Craig Tiley for once did his job right ..otherwise he’s known for licking Novaks boots
So Novak can only win matches in non windy and non humid conditions?!!!! Thought tennis was an outdoor sport?!!!!! Sigh!!! Scheduling a match day or night should not matter in the grand scheme of things……..great players adapt in any condition!!!!!
It’s a fact Mona that in 23 tiley did everything to help Novak win , all night matches, soft draw..u name it .maybe he felt obliged after what happ in 22 as it was his fault too
in 22
It’s not that Novak doesn’t like outdoor or day ..he doesn’t like intense hard heat ..he said it that he suffered in fritz match..n ao heat on hot days can be real bad
And the same was said about Fed at certain tournaments.
Ie schedule fixed to suit him.
Sometimes you have to hold your hands up, and say too good, Istomin, Chueng, Wawarinka, remember them,now Sinner, beat Novak here, so he is beatable….
Will Z stop clowning n reach the final? We need a new slam champion ..I’m rooting for Sinner the winner
N it’s well known that Novak doesn’t play well in windy conditions
In truth Djoker did not play well this year. Lost sets to nobodys, lost to Demon. Who did he beat this year? Fritz was the best he managed to defeat this year and let’s face it the American is quite limited.
I doubt that today’s defeat has anything to do with the heat.
Such a bad start of the season for the Serb hasn’t happened since 2017; that time it took him one and a half years to recover.
Interestingly, at the end of last year Djoker fired his old time agent to “enter a new chapter about the off-court approach.” That seems to be paying off now.
Maybe this time the Serb has some real health issue, or maybe some ingredient(s) of his “magic potion” were recently banned. Coincidentally his only slump so far came after Meldonium was banned.
Most likely though, he managed to get rid of everyone who was keeping his feet on the ground and now he’s reaping the rewards.
yep, he was bad the whole tournament (as he admitted)
He wasn’t bad; he played as expected given the amount of tennis he played the past 6 months and his age. Get over it
“as expected”
?
Yes, because I predicted it at the beginning.
You shouldn’t put capitalism before people’s health.
There’s no benefit in him playing IW or Miami this year. These are tournaments for up-and-coming players, those in their prime, or those who had an early exit from the AO.
If it were me, I’d rest until Madrid and then go straight to RG.
He needs to protect his body and energy levels going forward and be realistic in terms of his ranking.
Not to mention he’s won both those tournaments more times than he can count.
Good line by J Mac: father Time is undefeated…
First completed grand slam hasn’t had a bp. Didn’t see match but obviously way way off his game however well Sinner played.
Perhaps we will have more realistic talk now rather than hearing Novak will be playing Olympics 28 and will be playing in his 40s. Just insane! At some point when you age you get injuries plus lose concentration…
The older you get, the harder everything becomes mentally and physically.From experience
little early for that
one bad tournament is a small sample size
Yeah, but it’s a slippery slope. Have more and more off days.
Happens to them all at some point
I only watched the first two sets it was clear he wasnt himself, losing both in just over an hour. I’m torn between Sinner and Meddy for the title , liking both equally.
Actually it’s one of the few times I would be happy with any of the men semifinalists winning the whole thing
Hard to see Meddy winning given the huge amount of time he has spent on court…
You need to shut up about your predictions because you’ve been saying this about every player like a broken record and you keep getting it wrong.
everyone is free to make predictions, calm down
any of the 4?
Yes. I’m a fan of all 4 it’s hard to pick a winner.
I don’t think this is Father time yet. Djokovic was sick obviously. He didn’t run and move as usual. He still has enough to win another slam or two.
agreed
He wasn’t sick at all; he posted himself to achieve the results he did last 6 months and after the break, he is now on the decline. Don’t get me wrong, he still has some big wins in him but it’s not what you’re thinking. You people think he has upside. He now has to manage his career differently like Federer did for the next two to three years.
“pushed himself at 36”
But it will get more and more difficult.
Hooray for Sinner!1…I think/hope that I would have picked Sinner…and I’m so glad he won….Tennis needs some new Grand Slam faces!
agreed
Yeah, and nice guy with it .
I would be very surprised if Djoker springs back to life in the near future. He probably needs to change something (back?) first.
However, I also tend to believe that he’s not yet done, unless he made some irreversible changes in his prep / lifestyle, has a really nasty injury, whatever.
It’s probably not going to be easy for him though, not with Sinner and Alcaraz having his number now and Rafa still around.
People said the same last year, he won three Slams.
Lost to Alcaraz in Wimbledon final.
Lost to Sinner thrice in a few months, including last defeat in his own backyard.
These guys now know rather than believe that they can beat him – this is a huge difference.
Also Rafa has been off last year which was probably the key to Djoker’s success.
Of course, Alcaraz is still a bit of a wild card. Sinner seems more consistent and has continuously risen his level.
For sure I wasn’t expecting much competition last year. With Rafa away and Sinner not there just yet, Djoker won 3 Slams and lost one to Alcaraz. This year his chances look much slimmer, especially since he’s not playing that well (this was not the case last year!).
He still won wtf a couple of months ago where he was brilliant against both Alcaraz and Sinner and pretty much destroyed them.
Way too early to say he is on the ropes.
agreed
pretty good points
definite “near future”
before French Open?
No, I think that his best chance is Wimbledon as long as the others focus on Roland Garros and Olympics.
However I would be surprised if he even tries to steady the ship before he accumulates a few losses. I expect him to acknowledge the issue sometime close to RG (around Madrid let’s say). Then he’ll need time to fix it.
Of course, he might just have had a bad month at the office – but I suspect that it’s more than that.