The Asian swing begins this week, and it begins with a bang. Most of the noise will be made in Beijing, where Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are making their first tournament appearances since the U.S. Open final—won by Nadal in four sets. The top two players are joined in an incredibly strong 500-point field by fellow World Tour Finals hopefuls David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, and Stanislas Wawrinka. In Tokyo, meanwhile, Juan Martin Del Potro and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga headline the action as the top two seeds.
China Open
Where: Beijing, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $2,205,000
Points: 500
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: Djokovic and and Wawrinka have already played two memorable matches against each other this season, with the world No. 1 surviving five-setters at both the Australian Open and U.S. Open. They are on course for another collision in the China Open quarterfinals. Djokovic could first face Fernando Verdasco in the second round while Wawrinka may run into Mikhail Youzhny prior to the last eight. Potential semifinal opponents for either Djokovic or Wawrinka include Ferrer and Gasquet. Those two also squared off in a U.S. Open thriller; Gasquet prevailed 6-3 in the fifth to reach the semifinals. Ferrer opens with Vasek Pospisil before a possible date with hard-luck Kuala Lumpur runner-up Julien Benneteau.
At the bottom of the bracket, Nadal should coast against Santiago Giraldo before another likely U.S. Open rematch. Philipp Kohlschreiber, who took a set off Nadal in the fourth round, could get another shot at the Spaniard in the Beijing second round. Nadal’s section also includes Tommy Haas, Lleyton Hewitt, and Tommy Robredo. Berdych, Sunday’s runner-up in Bangkok, and John Isner find themselves in the weakest quarter of the draw. Isner, though, rarely plays well outside of the United States. Grigor Dimitrov can be expected to give the 6’10’’ American a tough test in the round of 16.
First-round upset alert: (WC) Lleyton Hewitt over (7) Tommy Haas. Haas is 41-18 for the season, but he cooled off just a bit this summer—culminating with a third-round U.S. Open loss to Youzhny. Hewitt also lost to Youzhny in New York, but it was a five-set thriller in the round of 16. Hewitt, who leads the head-to-head series against Haas 6-4 overall and 2-1 on hard courts, has won four of his last five matches. Although the Aussie does not have a ton of firepower, he loves using opponents’ pace and he has always been a force on relatively fast surfaces.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Richard Gasquet, Stanislas Wawrinka, John Isner, Tommy Robredo, Mikhail Youzhny
Cold: Lukas Rosol, Sam Querrey, Nikolay Davydenko, Pablo Andujar
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Stanislas Wawrinka, David Ferrer over Richard Gasquet, Tomas Berdych over Grigor Dimitrov, and Rafael Nadal over Tommy Robredo
Semifinals: Djokovic over Ferrer and Nadal over Berdych
Final: Nadal over Djokovic
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Rakuten Japan Open
Where: Tokyo, Japan
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,280,565
Points: 500
Top seed: Juan Martin Del Potro
Defending champion: Kei Nishikori
Draw analysis: Gael Monfils is playing his way into a position that will have him seeded for almost all tournaments, but he isn’t there yet. The result is a matchup that can’t get any bigger when it comes to first rounds. Monfils and Tsonga, at the very bottom of the bracket, will do battle in all-French affair on Monday in Tokyo. It may not get any easier for the winner, either. Ivan Dodig is a possible second-round opponent and Metz champion Gilles Simon will likely await in the quarterfinals. Bangkok champion Milos Raonic has a favorable draw that should pave the way to a quarterfinal clash against Kevin Anderson or Dmitry Tursunov.
Like Tsonga, Del Potro also has a blockbuster first-rounder on his hands. The top-seeded Argentine will open against Marcos Baghdatis, who is finally emerging from a slump that started way back in February. The rest of Del Potro’s draw is about as good as it gets. He nearest seed is an out-of-form Janko Tipsarevic and the seeds in the second section of the bracket are Kei Nishikori and Nicolas Almagro. Neither man is playing well right now, although Nishikori is the defending champion of his hometown event. The door could be open for Feliciano Lopez, Jurgen Melzer, or Ryan Harrison to capitalize on an opportunity at the expense of Nishikori and Almagro.
First-round upset alert: Gael Monfils over (2) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Both Frenchmen have more than their fair share of flair, but they have also endured more than their fair share of knee problems. Tsonga’s may be worse at the moment. The world No. 8 has played only one event since a second-round retirement at Wimbledon and although he reached the Bangkok final, Simon took care of him 6-4, 6-3. Monfils finished runner-up in Winston-Salem this summer then played well at the U.S. Open, destroying Adrian Ungur before losing to Isner in a dramatic four-setter. He should have the edge right now on anything other than grass or a lightning-fast indoor hard court.
Hot: Milos Raonic, Gilles Simon, Jurgen Melzer, Dmitry Tursunov
Cold: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Nicolas Almagro, Janko Tipsarevic, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Horacio Zeballos
Quarterfinal predictions: Juan Martin Del Potro over Alexandr Dolgopolov, Feliciano Lopez over Ryan Harrison, Kevin Anderson over Milos Raonic, and Gilles Simon over Ivan Dodig
Semifinals: Del Potro over Lopez and Simon over Anderson
Final: Simon over Del Potro
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
That’s a great field in Beijing…I hope the tv coverage is good on TC. Don’t forget about Berdych…he could win it all!
ricky has actually predicted rafa to win something outside clay?? What has happened to the world.
nothing has happened to the world as we know it, but I believe Hell has frozen over.
Ricky, you have finally seen the print of the nail!
Isner is the only one in the entire draw that I am concerned about as far as Rafa is concerned, even though Rafa leads him 4:0, simply because he can (not always) take the racquet out of his opponent’s hands. If he meets Rafa, it would virtually be down to how well Isner serves.
you aren’t even CONCERNED about Djokovic now? LOL.
@ 4.22am
? ? ? ?
Some one needs to start an investigation! Ricky’s account might have been hacked!
Oh no! Ricky’s picked Rafa!
#KnockOnWood
Interesting week ahead.
China with the stronger draw over Japan with the world Top 2 and 6 of the Top 10 with Japan only having Delpo (No. 7) and Tsonga (No. 8).
In China, I like Rafa’s draw. Kohls the biggest threat before the final for him. Nole should reach the final without too much difficulty. Wawa lurks in the 3rd round for him but Nole will be better rested and Wawa is feeling the stress of trying to pass Roger and make the WTFs. Would have preferred Pospisil to have played in Japan with its softer draw. Instead he has to face a slumping but experfienced Ferru in the 1st round! Tough ask for the rising player. If he got past Ferru, he has a good shot against Bennetteau and then could face Gasquet which would be an interesting match.
In Japan, good opportunity for Tsonga in his late season push but he has a tough draw facing LaMonf in the 1st round followed potentially by Dodig, Simon and Raonic before the finals. Frankly, I think Monfils will beat him. In contrast, Delpo has a relatively easy path to the finals with a cold but home favourite Kei Nishikori as the highest seed in Delpo’s half. If Raonic caan keep his recent form going, I like his chances to make the finals.
Yikes! Ricky has picked Rafa to win Beijing! The world has just turned on its axis! 🙂
Seriously, nice preview Ricky.
I can definitely see Monfils beating Tsonga. That should be a good one. There are a couple of question marks for me. Has Delpo’s wrist recovered? He looked quite out of sorts at the USO. It’s certainly doable for him to get to the finals on paper. Kevin Anderson over Raonic is an interesting pick. Is the thinking that Raonic will be a bit tired after winning Bangkok? Or will he be able to capitalize on that win. I am not that sure about Simon. I think it’s possible for Monfils to surprise here.
As for Bangkok, will Ferrer play any better than he did in Kuala Lumpur? I just don’t think he’s on his game right now. I do think that Stan can give Djoker some trouble. I am not so sure about Ferrer over Gasquet. Normally I would say he gets the win, but he’s just not playing really well right now.
If Rafa can take care of business against Kohls, then I don’t see anyone stopping him from getting to the final.
I thought Simon was injured in his last tournament?
he was injured a while ago, but he appears to be healthy now
He may have an issue with his back – it was giving him a bit of trouble last week.
I won’t discount Wawa’s chances against Nole at all. There are also Dr Youzhny, Verdasco & Tomic (level headed versions) and Gasquet who could trouble Nole.
I think as long as Novak and Rafa are in the one/two or soon to be two/one positions in the rankings, we will be in for many Rafa/Novak finals. I’m not sure my nerves are up for it.
That’s true Jpacnw, and I’m sure that my nerves are not up for it…The last match between them that I actually watched from begining to end was the final of the AO12.
That match broke my heart so badly that I couldn’t watch a entire match since then…lately I always watch the first set (wich is generally taken by Rafa) then drop it at the end of the second (which is taken by Djoko generally), then I start to watch the third set but can’t go further because is always so tense and full of endless rallies…so I turn off the tv and, depending on the outcome, I go to youtube to see the entire match.
I know I miss all the adrenaline, but I’m fine with that 🙂
I don’t pay too much attention to Khols win over Rafa in Halle. Rafa had just come off his win at RG and clearly had a dodgy knee. Even Khols acknowledged that Rafa was not really ready for grass.
That is not to say that Khols can’t trouble Rafa, he’s clearly got the game, but not the consistency. Rafa will have to work for the win.
See what happens when you badger Ricky about his picks, he sees the light! I wish he was still in the dark and picking Novak…………I am more comfortable with Rafa wearing the “un-favourite” tag.
Actually, I am not “scared” of Rafa-Novak matches anymore. Quite looking forward to them now! I hope They both reach the final and Rafa beats him, continues chipping away at Novak’s confidence so that by the time AO 2014 comes by, he will meekly surrender………..to Rafa of course!
not at all. I’ve been “badgered” about my picks for many years now and this is may be the FIRST time I’ve picked Rafa to win a hard court tournament.
“Ultimately, making a case to oppose Nadal is virtually impossible – he has the motivation of being crowned world number one again and is in the form of his life – winning six of his last seven events.
Take the 11/10 available at various bookmakers now as he will quickly descend into odds-on across the industry.
Either that or face the risk of looking back on the reality that you opposed a man currently making a strong case for being considered the game’s greatest ever player.”
http://www.sportinglife.com/tennis/news/article/553/8949141/nadal-too-hot-to-oppose
that last paragraph makes no sense
Makes no sense to me too but I like it!
by that logic, betting against Federer to ever lose another match is a bad idea.
During the weak era, other than on clay, it was a bad idea.
I think their matches will still be hotly contested and can go either way and either of the 2 can win.
It depends on 2 things
How aggressive Rafa is?
How many UE will Novak make either coz his timing/footwork is off or coz of Rafas aggression.?
I agree, Sanju. Despite the assault on my nerves, I continue to watch Novak/Rafa matches from the beginning to end. I’ll be able to handle an occasional loss by Rafa as long as there are also wins. What just about did me in were the 7 straight losses that Rafa suffered at the hands of Novak, culminating with the heartbreaking loss of AO12. What salavaged it for me was Rafa’s response and his own positive outlook regarding it. After listening to his runner-up speech and follow-up interviews, how anyone could not have anything but admiration and the highest regard for him is beyond me.
Ugh. “salvaged” not “salavaged.” Wish there was an edit function. Too late at night for me. My brain stops. I think my time zone is different from most everyone here…..west coast USA.
I definitely think that Rafa/Djoker matches are still going to be tight battles. The difference will be the relative mental strength and confidence of both players. That is extremely important, given that they are both closely matched.
Djoker needs that dtl backhand to be firing accurately. Rafa needs his dtl forehand and also his backhand. The key is who can get good court positioning. Rafa being so much more aggressive now has changed the dynamic in their matches. He can hit his shots from just on or inside the baseline. In 2011 it was Djoker who was able to control the baseline rallies by getting better court positioning.
The other two things are serve and ROS. Rafa’s excellent serving has held up well in his matches with Djoker. He is also returning serve much more aggressively and putting more pressure on Djoker’s serve.
We don’t usually see lopsided or non-competitive matches between these two. Rafa is feeling extremely confident now and playing some of his best tennis on hard court. I think that’s why Ricky finally picked him to win in Beijing. He is just feeling it now and also has the motivation of getting back the #1 ranking.
Grigor Dimitrov has splitted with his coach Mikael Tillström, who is running the Good to Great Tennis Academy in Sweden (together with Magnus Norman). They say G.Dimitrov has decided to spend more time in Los Angeles instead of Stockholm. ‘I did what I did for Maria’ ?
—September 29, 2013. Good to Great terminates the cooperation with Grigor Dimitrov that lasted since the end of November 2012.
There is no hard feelings in the decision. Grigor has decided to spend more time in Los Angeles instead of Stockholm. For The Academy this would have meant that Mikael Tillström, who was responsible coach for Grigor, more or less would become disconnected from the Good to Great Tennis Academy and the whole concept which we strongly believe in—
http://www.goodtogreatworld.com/en/2013/09/grigor-dimitrov-2/
Just plumping up the cushions and lolling on the sofa, feet up on the footstool, choccies at hand…..Really looking forward to these matches….
It’s an ill wind…..;)
Ricky 5:41 am:
Ehm, I think it’s the author’s clumsy way of saying, “bet against THIS Rafa at your peril”. Mind you, Fed is still being referred to as a member of the Big 4…..on what basis: his claim to GOAThood, because his current ranking and form do not merit such consideration.
Ricky was waiting for Rafa to dominate the h/c season better than anyone ever before to believe that Rafa is no mug on h/c.
I’ve never been a fan of Federer but I wouldn’t bet on him not rising Phoenix-like from the ashes at some point……………………………..
But I do think it’s time the GOAT was put out to grass.
ed, especially as the GOAT now has a cow for company whilst grazing.
Completed matches so far
Fabio Fognini d Tommy Robredo 7 5 4 6 6 3
Bernard Tomic d Ze Zhang 7 6 6 4
Roberto Bautista-Agut d Grigor Dimitrov 4 6 2 6
That’s two potential Beijing QF predictions gone for a burton.
in Tokyo
Jarkko Nieminen d Juan Monaco 7 6 6 1
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga d Gael Monfils 3 6 6 7
scorelines above are not all in correct sequence
So Dimi is out!
Has anybody found a lifestream for Beijing that works. The links on LiveScoreHunter are buffering to the point of being unwatchable.
I don’t know that there is any live streaming of the Atp matches until the 3rd Oct.
That’s me, clayqueen, Nadine.
Albert Montanes took a set from Philipp Kohlschreiber. Not bad, not bad! The deciding set has started.
ed!
I watch the scoreboard.
Kohlbi took the first set but Montanes has replied by handing out a breadstick.
Nothing else for it, but it is not the same thing is it ;-(
I never cease to be surprised how the first serve % can fluctuate so widely from one set to the next. Kohlbi’s dropped to 33% in second set but is double that now and Montanes is struggling on his.
Kohlbi came within a whisker of going out in the first round. Saved by the bell when it went to the TB.
Albert Montanes has defeated Federer, but it was on clay (in Estoril, 2010).
Hahaha! Look who’s trying to improve his volleying skills……..belatedly:
RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Novak Djokovic and Stanislas Wawrinka are playing doubles together this week in Beijing. Novislas has a good ring to it. Djokrinka, less so.”
China Open OOP for Tuesday, why or why do they only start TV coverage on Thursday?
http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2013/747/op.pdf
I like noleslaw better.
#BBQ
That’s funny ?
I found a Chinese live stream (poor quality) earlier for the Kohlbi match but now there is nothing for the Haas match at all. It’s not like it is competing against many other sports for air time at this time of day.
OTOH You can watch the women at Beijing to your hearts content.
#SexualDiscrimination
It’s about time they introduced a separate Active Veterans’ Tour for the over 30s.
No wonder it’s so hard for the younger players to climb the ladder these days.
I have the Tennis Channel, but not one of the ATP Beijing matches will be broadcast live and even on replay, nothing until the round of 16. Only the WTA final will be a live broadcast. Guess I’ll be going to sportlemon.tv for all the live broadcasts. That’s my go-to streaming site. Rafa’s match is scheduled for approximately 5 pm local time (he plays right after Novak, same court). That’ll be 2 am for me. I’ll be watching.
Attention Spanish-speaking fans! This is a new tennis website, please patrol/read and give us translations on good articles. I have already see on on Rafa, would love to know what is said:
http://www.tennistopic.com/
rafaisthebest@September 30, 2013 at 3:07 pm
Have you tried ‘Google Translate’?
augusta08 September 30, 2013 at 3:17
I only use Google Translate for short articles and sentences otherwise it’s too laborious and it does not always make sense.
Thanks for the information 😉
Great article on Rafa. I wish I could translate it for you but my English is not there yet, sorry. But it’s about the possibility of Rafa returning for the top of the ranking in the exactly same place where he was crowned #1 for the first time, at the Olympic Games in 2008.
ritb: You are right. Google Translate is far from infallible and it’s doubly difficult to decipher the gobbledegook it can produce if you’re not familiar with the subject matter.
I often work as sub-editor for translators working from French to English who have resorted to using it. I now insist on having the original French text before getting to work.
#BetterThanNothing
ed, try this, it works:
http://sports.uusee.com/2013-10-01/202079186.html
ed, this link works
http://sports.uusee.com/2013-10-01/202079186.html
ed, try this link it works:
http://sports.uusee.com/live/
Di Wu (height: 5’8″ or 173 cm) took first set from John Isner (height: 6’10” or 208 cm). Unbelievable!
And then takes it to a TB in the 2nd. But for his aces Isner would be on his way to the airport.
Would love to be able to see this Di Wu in action. He must have some return of serve to hold Isner at bay like that.