Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers and for the fourth time this year when they clash on the final day of round-robin competition at the Nitto ATP Finals. They have split their four previous encounters at two wins apiece (1-1 on hard courts), with Alcaraz taking two of three this season.
Medvedev is off to 2-0 start in Turin and can lock up the top seed out of the Red Group with one more victory. The third-ranked Russian has already guaranteed himself a spot in the semifinals because each of his first two wins–over Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev–came in straight sets. Success at the year-end championship is nothing new for Medvedev, who captured the title in 2020 and finished runner-up to Zverev in 2021.
Alcaraz’s history at the Nitto ATP Finals is far less extensive. In fact, this is the 20-year-old Spaniard’s debut appearance (he withdrew in 2022 due to injury). It got off to a rocky start in the form of a 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4 loss to Zverev, but Alcaraz bounced back by beating Rublev 7-5, 6-2 on Wednesday.
Despite Alcaraz’s improvement from match one to match two, his confidence level can’t be at a zenith. The world No. 2 has not won a title since Wimbledon and has not even reached a final since his epic loss to Novak Djokovic at the Cincinnati masters. Alcaraz’s fall swing includes a Shanghai fourth-round setback against Grigor Dimitrov and an immediate exit from the Paris Masters at the hands of Roman Safiullin.
Almost every sign points to a Medvedev victory. The only note of caution is that the 27-year-old’s motivation level may be somewhat diminished by the fact that he is already through to the semis. That being said, prize money and ranking points–and maintaining an undefeated record–should be enough to pique his interest.
Pick: Medvedev in 2
[yop_poll id=”707″]
WWW?
This looks closer than you’re suggesting and that’s before you consider each player’s motivation level.
Bingo
😉
This is a tough one to call. I remember when Medvedev was in close enough form a few months ago that I had him winning at least a set against Alcaraz, I was so sure of it, but was handedly outclassed by Alcaraz in 2 sets.
Maybe I try to take Medvedev +1.5 again? 2nd times the charm.
I would avoid both matches like the plague given the circumstances
I would take Medvedev confidently if he hadn’t already qualified for the semis
I am avoiding 2nd match up of the day. Ultimately, I found a lot of value picking Carlos straight up.
well done
It was just a roulette wheel last second decision. Nothing worth celebrating. I like Medvedev a lot, but it seems as if Carlos is his kryptonite.
he dismantled Alcaraz in the US Open semis
this match doesn’t really count due to low stakes for Meddy
Carlos got this one.
Alcaraz completely outplays Med.
If only Rafa had had his serve. Toni did a terrible job in giving him such a poor serve. Affects confidence and the rest of his game.
Well, Medvedev opted for practice match and to choose SF opponent, he thought Sinner is easier of two, particularly since apparently Sinner picked up back injury in Rune’s match, we’ll see if it is going to backfire.
For Alcaraz it was a must win, not for Medvedev.
I doubt it – Medvedev was playing for the big cheque and turned up wanting to win. Alcaraz was simply too clutch today.
If he brings that same level again, he’s a great chance of making the final.
That’s the key point Ricky keeps missing, the event is structured to incentivize players to bring their best in every match regardless of whether they have qualified or not.
His prediction was wrong.
Not really .Why would a player have incentive to tire themselves in a close three setter when they already qualified? Esp at this time of year.
wrong
Medvedev doesn’t care about the additional $2M he earns for going undefeated?
I picked Medvedev