The 2013 Grand Slam season is 23 days away from its glorious beginning in Melbourne Park. That means it’s time to predict what the four biggest tournaments will deliver over the course of the next nine months. Join the fun in the comments section…if you have the guts!
Australian Open – Novak Djokovic. All signs–I mean all signs–point to another Australian Open title for Djokovic. He won three of his last four tournaments in 2012 (Beijing, Shanghai, and the World Tour Finals) and the only one he didn’t win was a Paris Masters that was a masterful disaster. Nobody in the Top 10 other than eventual champion David Ferrer had much interest in participating. Djokovic won 30 of his last 33 matches this season following the Olympics and reached the final of every one of his post-Olympic events other than Paris. If the top-ranked Serb slows down sometime in the near future, it won’t be in Melbourne. He is the two-time defending champion and boasts a 29-2 record in his last five appearances, with only one loss coming by something other than retirement–and that was a five-set thriller against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Runner-up (if on opposite side of the draw) – Andy Murray
Dark Horse (anyone other than Djokovic, Federer or Murray) for the title – Juan Martin Del Potro. Del Potro heated up this fall with titles in Vienna and Basel and a semifinal at the World Tour Finals. He’s only going to get healthier with rest during the offseason and what’s better for the big Argentine than a high-bouncing hard court?
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French Open – Rafael Nadal. I will be the first to say that winning Grand Slams should be the last thing on Nadal’s mind right now. All he needs to do in the near future is complete a few tennis matches–win or lose–and stay healthy while doing so. Nothing more, nothing less. Nadal isn’t going to win the Australian Open and he almost certainly won’t go all the way in Indian Wells or Miami. Five months from now, however, is a much different proposition. The fourth-ranked Spaniard has said that he hopes to be 100 percent in time for Monte-Carlo, and that is a realistic goal. If he can get a few more clay-court Masters titles under his belt before the French Open, the confidence to resume winning Grand Slams will come. If Nadal is in fact 100 percent at Roland Garros, everyone else is playing for second place. He is a well-documented 52-1 lifetime at the event with seven titles, including the last three in succession.
Runner-up (if on opposite side) – Juan Martin Del Potro
Dark Horse for the title (anyone other than the Big 4 and my runner-up pick, Del Potro) – David Ferrer. This could be Ferrer’s best–and last–chance to win a slam. He will be 31 years old at the French Open, but he is showing no signs of slowing down. If Nadal is not absolutely 100 percent at Roland Garros, there is nobody Ferrer cannot beat.
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Wimbledon – Andy Murray. Murray has finally won a Grand Slam, now the question is: will it have a snowball effect? For example, Djokovic triumphed in the 2010 Davis Cup then basically won every title known to man in 2011. On the other hand, Del Potro captured the 2009 U.S. Open but hasn’t won a major since (due in part to 2010 injury). If Murray is better in 2013 than he was in 2012, he is going to be pretty darn good. He also won the Olympics (at the All-England Club, no less) and even though he scored no titles following his triumph in New York, he at least reached the Shanghai final and made it out of group play in London. Murray has been close at Wimbledon many times–including a runner-up finish to Federer this summer in which a closed roof hurt his chances–and now he has the confidence to get over the hump. This is the Scot’s time.
Runner-up (if on opposite side) – Roger Federer
Dark Horse for the title (anyone other than the Big 4) – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The jury is out on Tsonga’s partnership with Roger Rasheed. If it works it could do wonders, and if it works the payoff could come at Wimbledon. Tsonga has three straight quarterfinals and two straight semifinals at the All-England Club, including a comeback from two sets down against Federer in 2011.
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U.S. Open – Roger Federer. I thought we would have four different Grand Slam champions in 2012, and I think we’ll see it again in 2013. Federer is 31 years old, but he continues to manage his schedule in impeccable fashion. The second-ranked Swiss isn’t playing Davis Cup, Miami, and obviously not Monte-Carlo. He still has and will continue to have plenty left in the tank; certainly enough for one more U.S. Open title. Federer’s hiccup against Tomas Berdych this year was an aberration, not the new rule. He is an outrageous 55-4 in his last nine U.S. Opens, with five titles and three five-set losses. Yes, Berdych was the first man to beat Federer in fewer than five sets at the U.S. Open since David Nalbandian in the 2003 fourth round. The 17-time slam champ will make sure he is well-rested during the American summer and will peak at the right time on Monday evening in New York.
Runner-up (if on opposite side) – Novak Djokovic
Dark Horse for the title (anyone other than the Big 4) – Tomas Berdych. Will the Davis Cup title do what it once did for Djokovic and–to a lesser extent–Fernando Verdasco? If it does, Berdych could at least reach a final in one of his first three…but his best chance comes in Flushing Meadows. The Czech, who upset Federer in this year’s quarterfinals, has a game suited perfectly for American hard courts.
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