Indian Wells R4 previews and predictions: Rublev vs. Hurkacz, Isner vs. Dimitrov

Andrey Rublev is the favorite in a wide-open bottom half of the draw, but he will have a tough test on his hands in the form of Hubert Hurkacz. A full slate of fourth-round action on Wednesday also pits John Isner against Grigor Dimitrov.

(7) Andrey Rublev vs. (11) Hubert Hurkacz

Rublev and Hurkacz will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers when they battle for a quarterfinal spot at the BNP Paribas Open on Wednesday. Hurkacz leads the head-to-head series 2-1, but Rublev won their most recent encounter 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(5) a few weeks ago in Dubai. The world No. 7 went on to capture that title–his second in a row after also triumphing in Marseille–and he is showing no signs of slowing down in Indian Wells. Rublev has extended his winning streak to 11 matches with straight-set defeats of Dominik Koepfer and Frances Tiafoe.

Hurkacz posted one good win over Jannik Sinner in the Dubai quarterfinals and came close against Rublev in the semis, but the 11th-ranked Pole is off an otherwise unspectacular start to his 2022 campaign. He is just 3-3 against opponents in the top 75. Rublev represents a big step up in competition from Oscar Otte and Steve Johnson, Hurkacz’s first two Indian Wells opponents. A nighttime setting should favor the seventh seed, as well, because Hurkacz won’t win many free points on serve and Rublev is the more capable of the two in hitting winners from the baseline in slow conditions.

Pick: Rublev in 3

(23) John Isner vs. (33) Grigor Dimitrov

The summer hard-court swing–and specifically Atlanta–may be Isner’s favorite time of year, but the Sunshine Double in Indian Wells and Miami is a close second. Following straight-set wins this fortnight over Sam Querrey and Diego Schwartzman, the 6’10” American is now 26-12 lifetime in the desert with a runner-up performance in 2021. Relatively slow, high-bouncing conditions in low humidity work perfectly for Isner’s game, so his success is no surprise.

Up next for the 36-year-old is a fourth career contest against Dimitrov, who trails the head-to-head series 2-1. The 30-year-old Bulgarian has been the main beneficiary of Novak Djokovic’s Indian Wells withdrawal, as he moved into the Serb’s seeded spot at the bottom of the bracket and has since defeated Jordan Thompson and Alexander Bublik in straight sets. Although a fourth-round draw against Isner isn’t a bad one, it’s also not a good matchup for Dimitrov in these conditions.

Pick: Isner in 2