Rome R1 previews and predictions: Carreno Busta vs. Nishikori, Berrettini vs. Basilashvili

First-round action at the Rome Masters will wrap up on Tuesday, when Pablo Carreno Busta goes up against Kei Nishikori. Madrid runner-up Matteo Berrettini is getting right back in gear, set to face Nikoloz Basilashvili.

Kei Nishikori vs. (11) Pablo Carreno Busta

Carreno Busta and Nishikori will be squaring off for the third time in their careers and for the second time this year when they meet again in round one of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Tuesday. Both of their previous encounters have come at the Australian Open; Nishikori survived 6-7(8), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4, 7-6(8) in controversial fashion at the 2019 event, while Carreno Busta got the job done 7-5, 7-6(4), 6-2 a few months ago.

The oft-injured Nishikori was rusty at that point in time, but he has at least won nine matches this season heading into Rome. Consistency has not been the Japanese veteran’s strong suit and he will need it against such a solid baseliner in Carreno Busta. The 12th-ranked Spaniard’s clay-court swing is highlighted by a title in Marbella and a trip to the Barcelona semifinals (lost to Rafael Nadal). This could be one of the best matches of the day, but Carreno Busta is more match tough right now and should prevail in the end.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 3

(9) Matteo Berrettini vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili

Berrettini is coming off one of the best results of his career, a runner-up showing at the Madrid Masters. Although the Madrid final was a tough three-setter against Alexander Zverev, most of Berrettini’s matches were straightforward so he should have something left in the tank for a second consecutive Masters 1000 tournament. The ninth-ranked Italian is now 16-4 for the season and his 8-1 record on clay includes a title in Belgrade.

Up first for Berrettini on Tuesday is a fourth career ATP-level contest against Basilashvili, who trails the head-to-head series 2-1. The 30th-ranked Georgian has been all over the place in 2021; he has surprisingly captured two titles, but in his other 11 events this season he is a terrible 4-11. That kind of inconsistency does not bode well going into a showdown against an opponent who is bubbling with confidence.

Pick: Berrettini in 2