Sunday’s Wimbledon final pits top two seeds Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray against each other in what will be their fourth meeting in a Grand Slam title match. A three-time panel chooses sides and previews the action.
Chris Skelton (@ChrisSkelton87): The rivalry between Djokovic and Murray has unfolded mostly on hard courts–the best surface for both men. A key exception came last year at the Olympics, when Murray swept a semifinal from the Serb in straight sets to set up his gold medal. Standing tall against two previous nemeses that week, Djokovic and Roger Federer, Murray proved that he could overcome the pressure of playing on home soil for national pride. All the same, one sensed that the Scot would need to win a major other than Wimbledon before taking home what his compatriots view as the ultimate prize. Having lost his first four major finals, Murray finally snapped Great Britain’s title drought at majors with a five-set victory over Djokovic at the US Open last fall. Although Djokovic has recaptured the upper hand in their rivalry by winning their last three meetings, their head-to-head has seen plenty of abrupt momentum shifts and sudden spurts.
Murray will gain confidence from those two marquee victories over Djokovic last year, one on the same court where he will face the Serb on Sunday. Moreover, his appearance in the 2012 Wimbledon final will have inoculated him to some of the tension that weighed on him then. Competing gallantly in a four-set loss to Federer, Murray has learned what it feels like to contest the final at his home major and will not approach this match with the same wide-eyed uncertainty. While Djokovic holds a clear edge over Murray on clay, the balance of power shifts the opposite direction on grass. The home hope has reached four consecutive finals on grass, arguably Djokovic’s worst surface, and their Olympics meeting revealed two key areas in which he surpasses his rival. Those areas, his first serve and his forecourt play, reap more rewards on grass than they do on the increasingly slow hard courts. Meanwhile, Djokovic’s key strengths of fluid defense and a smooth transition game shine less on grass than they do elsewhere.
Through the last few rounds, Djokovic has burst out of the gate impressively before coming back to earth. By contrast, Murray has started slowly in his last two matches before gradually settling into his groove. I expect him to bounce back from early adversity and finally lay Fred Perry’s ghost to rest. Murray 4-6, 7-6, 6-3, 7-5.
Steen (Tennis East Coast): I predicted this final at the start of the tournament, and again at the start of week two, and I’m sticking with my original prediction: Murray to break the British drought and topple Djokovic for the second time in a slam. In all of his matches this week, he has shown mental fortitude and generally the positive attitude needed to get past the Djokovic challenge, and he has avoided many of his common issues–including mentally disappearing for long periods in matches.
Ricky: Strictly looking at the numbers, the edge goes to Djokovic. He owns an 11-7 record in the overall head-to-head series and he is 3-1 against Murray at Grand Slams, 2-1 in slam finals, and 5-3 against the Scot since the beginning of 2012. Whereas Murray is a mere 1-5 in major title matches despite triumphing at the 2012 US Open, Djokovic boasts an impressive 6-4 mark in such matches.
Taking current form at this installment of Wimbledon into account, Djokovic still appears to have the advantage. The world No. 1 is coming off a five-setter against Del Potro, but he has generally been more impressive than Murray this fortnight. Djokovic did not drop a set prior to the semifinals and Del Potro arguably would have defeated any other player in the world given his performance on Friday in what was nothing short of an epic encounter. Murray dropped two sets to Verdasco and also lost his opener to Janowicz before needing to come back from a 4-1 third-set deficit in order to avoid what would have been at best a five-set victory. Murray played well in those two matches, but neither match came close to rivaling Djokovic-Delpo. Verdasco’s level dipped considerably and Janowicz basically disappeared after giving the break back midway through set three.
Djokovic is the best returner and baseline player in the sport, and as if that isn’t enough his serve is also on fire right now. He blasted 22 aces (compared to Del Potro’s four) in the semis and for the tournament he has 76 aces compared to just seven double-faults. His serve percentage has been at least 61 percent in each of his last four matches, including 74 against Jeremy Chardy and 69 vs. Del Potro. Still, for reasons mentioned by Steen and Chris (especially the surface, the home-court advantage, and a slam title in his pocket), Murray is going to make it difficult. Djokovic 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4.
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hello
thanks hawkeye…I am from pakistan 🙂
welcome sana 🙂 how long had u been following TT?
Hi everyone,
chloro here …. will not confuse people about my gender the way my name chlorostoma did on TT
Good to see several of the really nice TEXTers have already joined. I hope many others do too. I left a message on the Tennistalk says farewell blog thread for luckystar to please find us here. I hope she finds it or finds any of the other people writing about tenngrand.
vamosrafa I am from California, USA
chloro,
Do we want the trolls following us here? It’s kind of ugly on tt now that they are getting their last digs in before the site shuts down. I don’t want the bad guys to follow us here. I would love it if lucky can find us again. She would be happy to just talk tennis without all that other bad stuff.
What about ritb? I know she posts on tennis-x. I can still go on there if necessary. But I assume that others who have posted on both tt and tennis-x will let her know where we are once she comes down from Mount Kilimanjaro.
holdserve,
Do you mind if I ask where in California? I am in L.A. Of course as my screen name would indicate, I was born in New York.
anyone out there go to Indian Wells?
I would love to go to IW. It sounds such a brilliant, informal tournament. Unfortunately it’s on the other side of the world for me!
Every year I promise myself that I will finally go to Indian Wells. It’s about two hours from where I love. But every year I get sick right before the tournament! Bad luck! It’s beautiful out there. I have to find a way to not get sick at that time of year so I can go there.
Two hours from where I love? LOL! Two hours from where I LIVE!
Typos!
Rafa back to practice. Good News
Lovely to see Rafa on the practice courts again.
Would have liked to see him enter Hamburg but good to see him back to practice.
#PracticeAreWeTalkingAboutPractice?
conspirator
were you born in 63?
or does 63 mean something else to you?
Born
I remember the Hawkeye days
but dont recall you being as sharp and witty back then.
It’s great to know that Rafa is practicing again!
U. Toni confirmed to a German paper that Rafa will play Montreal and Cincy.
I keep not wanting to post on this thread about subjects other than the Wimby final but there is no other thread.
As Ricky commented earlier, I just hope he doesn’t overdo it before the USO.
But it is a good sign that his knee is holding up if his team reckon he can play both warm up tourneys prior to New York.
The lights have gone out over at TT.
The end of an era.
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/07/rafael-nadal-impersonator/
vamosrafa,
Where did you find that? Funny stuff! Rafa is so cute as he is trying to figure out the first impersonation. I thought this kid did a great Andy Murray. Rafa had no trouble recognizing his Fed impersonation. Then when he did Rafa, I thought Rafa’s reaction was so cute!
Thanks for putting up this link!