Expert picks are back for a highly-anticipated U.S. Open semifinal between Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev on Friday night. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(3) Daniil Medvedev vs. (2) Dominic Thiem
Ricky: These two guys are aligning themselves to be the best players in the world whenever the Big 3 era comes to an end. The Big 3 were mostly absent in some way shape or form from the U.S. Open and both Thiem and Medvedev have risen to the occasion. The outcome of this blockbuster battle probably comes down to the surface and setting. Thiem would obviously dominate on clay and it would probably be an eyesore of a contest on grass. This one, however, will be outstanding. Thiem has suddenly become good on hard courts over the past two or three seasons. The problem for him is that Medvedev is great. The Russian’s 2019 run in New York was nothing short of epic (for several reasons!), so it’s clear that the stage is not too big for him. I think Thiem’s peak is higher than Medvedev’s, but I don’t see peak Thiem being on display for an entire best-of-five match against a such an effective counter-puncher and consistent ball-striker like Medvedev. In the end, last year’s runner-up will likely be too solid. Medvedev in 5: 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: Since the moment Djokovic got his walking papers, this is the match I’ve looked forward to the most and I can’t help but consider it the de facto final. Whether it makes good on its promises is a different matter altogether. Their previous matches haven’t exactly been barnburners, but the potential for a classic is there. Thiem is quick; he’s a shot-maker with a beauty of a one-hand backhand. In some ways, he’s a sort of a tennis player prototype. Medvedev is the opposite of a prototype. His game is unconventional by almost any standard. He doesn’t look like he’s quick, but he manages to be everywhere and seemingly all at once. He can switch lightning-fast from loopy, almost slow-motion forehands to stinging, clean winners. Current form would give the nod to Thiem, but I feel like the Russian might just squeak this one out in the end. Medvedev in 4: 6-4, 6-7(5), 7-6(7), 7-5.
Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): This is most likely one of the best possible matchups of the tournament given who actually showed up to play the 2020 U.S. Open. Last year in Cincinnati, I was privileged to watch when Medvedev became MEDVEDEV–when he stormed past Djokovic in the semifinal, brilliantly going huge on second serves in the final two sets. After playing a boatload of exhibition matches prior to the ATP Tour resuming, Thiem fell flat and won just three games in his only match of the Western & Southern Open, causing several in the tennis world to question his preparation leading into the U.S. Open. The two players have combined to drop just one set through five rounds in New York. Medevdev takes another step in hoisting the hardware he came so close to winning last year. Medvedev in 4: 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(3), 6-3.
who ya got?
Great analysis by all 3; and I think it will be a fun match for all of us watching on tv….Med in 4.
Med in five. He will have too much variety and counterpunching over the distance .
The real final ?
This match should be physically brutal, and I’m looking forward to it.
Thiem almost hit through an even stronger brick wall at the Australian Open (Djokovic), but flopped mentally in the fifth set. This time I think he’ll be ready. The serve/return battle definitely favours the Russian, but if Thiem can get enough rallies started he’ll have the advantage. Although Medvedev has a slight edge in consistency and willingness to play long points, he’s at an even bigger deficit offensively off both the FH and BH. It’s possible that Medvedev can wear Thiem down over five sets, like he almost did to Nadal the previous year, but Thiem is so physically primed that I don’t think this will happen. I expect that if Thiem’s on form he’ll be doing less of the chasing anyway.
Thiem in 4
Interesting views, and yes hopefully a great match to follow.
I think Thiem has a lot more to his game than Medvedev, and can tactically outwit him. In the Rublev match, Rublev should have won the tie break and taken the 1st set. I am not saying had that happened Rublev would hae won the match. But what I am saying, is I think Thiem has the skills to make life uncomfortable for him.
If Thiem brings Medvedvev more towards the net with drop shots, I think Thiem wins. Also don’t forget, Medvedev did have some cramping and shoulder issues against Rublev. Thiem has played some decent servers so I am not sure the serve will be a huge factor.
For me, I am pretty confident on even a 3 or 4 set win for Thiem. I may be completely wrong, but lets see!
I fancy 3-1 Thiem, but am tempted 3-0. I do fancy a comfortable Thiem win, if he uses the right tactics
Good call Pistol Pete! 👍
Thiem vs Medvedev is a toss up. Zverev should make the finals. Here’s an interesting one … https://www.138mph.com/medvedev-zverev-and-thiem-in-semifinals-bodes-well-for-tennis/
The zverev and Pablo match was horrendous beyond belief. If Zverev intends to play like that in the Final, he will be destroyed with a bagel atleast. I hope the thiem med match is of a much better quality.
Well Medvedev had his chances, he should’ve got at least one set but he wasn’t able to take his opportunities. Thiem definitely flagged in that third but he was able to recover, and at full power he outhit Med. A couple of Thiem’s clutch big points were critical, like the marathon rally to break for 5-5, and the huge down-the-line BH to bring up match-point.
Thiem vs Meddy is like Stan vs Djoko, just about a level down in terms of abilities I would say.
Thiem/Stan’s consistent power hitting from the baseline is something that Meddy/Djoko fear the most.
Yeah the dynamic is definitely similar, and both players can still improve. Thiem really blew a chance in the AO final because he regularly outhit Djokovic off the ground yet couldn’t quite ‘do a Stan’. Thiem wasn’t as mentally strong or good enough in the big points, so he lost that day against the experienced opponent. Djokovic had the consistency, and he was clutch. Today, against a less experienced opponent, Thiem was able to take his opportunities.
Thiem Medvedev was a snoozefest…so dull..med is overhyped .he can’t serve out sets ?
Exactly Sanju, this is what I’ve been saying since last year about medvedev. Overhyped indeed. Very disappointed with this match. Never expected thiem to blow medvedev off the court so easily and in straight sets regardless of the tie breaks. When Stan does it to Djoko, it is usually in 4 or 5 sets. It’s not that easy for Stan. Well atleast this match was slightly better than the zverev match. Hope the final is not a snooze fest with zverev’s nerves and tendency to go walkabouts during a match and for long periods especially since this will be zverev’s first final and thiem’s 4th. Experience may play a huge part in the final.
The ladies brought it in their semifinals. Both Great matches with high quality tennis unlike the men’s. I feel sorry for serena though, hope she eventually gets her 24th slam. Expect a cracker of a ladies final. Osaka and azarenka will throw everything at each other. It’s a toss up who will win.
I agree that Meddy is over hyped. I am happy that Thiem won in fairly straightforward fashion. He has been knocking on the door and only Rafa could keep him from winning RG. I am not a big fan of Meddy. I hope Thiem wins it all. But I really hope for a good match.
I am reality thrilled that Azarenka Is in the final. I am not sure that it’s in the cards for Serena to get number 24.
Meddy is very fond of coming from behind, giving chase and trying to turn things around to win. He was successful against Djoko at Cincy last year, almost got it done against Rafa at USO final last year.
This time, I feel its about time that Thiem gets his moment of glory so I think Meddy, and Zverev won’t be able to stop him.
Agreed, Lucky. But won’t everyone be surprised if Zverev somehow manages another win in the final? Lol, I almost hope it happens.
Maybe Meddy would have done better with a crowd to feed off – maybe he’s a vampire! Tall, pale, skinny, he’d make a great vampire. I thought his final last year v Rafa was mostly desperation, that he did not ever expect to win, just didn’t want to go down so tamely in 3 so no nerves and lots of surprise tactics, plus Rafa got really tired toward the end. This year he thought he could win so played less freely.
If thiem wins at uso..imagine the confidence he will take to RG ? A full of confidence Thiem and a djoko eager to overturn the missed oppty of an easy slam will be very tough for an undercooked Rafa
Somehow Thiem should land in other half of Rafa
I definitely have the worry beads out sanju!
Rafa is at such a disadvantage having no match practice.
I read that Zverev said that the best 2 players in the world are in the final.😠
His arrogance is pretty insufferable.
Don’t worry, Thiem will be tired from his USO exploits. He opts out of Rome, I think he may just play at Hamburg instead for some match practice before the FO.
Djoko has to take care of his shoulder first, and he also needs to get used to playing on clay. Imo, Rafa is the only one who, once he sets foot on clay, will immediately feel at home and so he doesn’t need much practice on clay to be ready to compete; the other players – well they need more time to get used to clay.
I do feel that those who go far at the USO will not do well at the FO; I’m thinking that Tsitsipas, who left early at the USO, may be able to go far on clay, as I think clay is his best surface even though he doesn’t think so himself.
What about Stan? If he’s in good conditions to compete, he may also do well at the FO.
Hope you’re right lucky!😀
I do worry Rafa will be undercooked.
Stan may do well I agree if fit and take out a big name or 2… Perhaps Dom😀?!
I read that something like 11 thousand fans are allowed daily at RG..but that may change…
I hope Moya has been adding to Rafa’s game so we see some pleasing additions..
Stan needs to land in djokos qtr 🙂 my first ask 🙂
Thiem needs to land in djokos half – second ask
Diego Schwartz needs to be kept away from rafa 🙂 third ask as he rallies n rallies n tires rafa
Who said djoko has shoulder injury ? He just fell in the match against busta ..is he carrying an injury ?