Australian Open R3 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Millman, Tsitsipas vs. Raonic

Roger Federer will face familiar foe John Millman during third-round action at the Australian Open on Friday. Stefanos Tsitipas, who got a walkover in the second round, will go up against Milos Raonic.

(3) Roger Federer vs. John Millman


It will be a rematch of an infamous–at least for Federer–2018 U.S. Open fourth-round contest when Federer and Millman meet again at the Australian Open on Friday night. Amidst extremely humid conditions that surprisingly took a toll on the Swiss, Millman scored a 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(7), 7-6(3) upset in New York. They have, however, squared off once since then. Federer took care of business 7-6(1), 6-3 on the grass courts of Halle last summer to take a 2-1 lead in the head-to-head series.

It has already been an outstanding 2020 campaign for Millman, who compiled a 4-1 record across the ATP Cup and Auckland before kicking things off in Melbourne with victories over Auckland champion Ugo Humbert and a similarly red-hot Hubert Hurkacz. But those opponents sure aren’t Federer, who completely blitzed Steve Johnson and Filip Krajinovic. Lightning is not going to strike twice at a slam for Millman, and he won’t enjoy the same Aussie crowd support against Federer from which he benefited in rounds one and two.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 11-14 games

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(6) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (32) Milos Raonic

Tsitsipas got a walkover from Philipp Kohlschreiber on Wednesday and now he runs into another injury-plagued opponent in the third round. Raonic appears to be healthy at the moment, but he can never be trusted to string together a couple of matches–especially three-out-five–before breaking down. The 35th-ranked Canadian, who lost his Doha opener to Corentin Moutet in straight sets, has defeated Lorenzo Giustino and Christian Garin.

It’s safe to say this marks a massive step up in competition. Tsitsipas is No. 6 in the world, made a run to the Australian Open semifinals last year, and won the Nitto ATP Finals. He opened in Melbourne with a 6-0, 6-2, 6-3 rout of Salvatore Caruso. Tsitsipas will have a huge edge from the back of the court, so unless Raonic delivers one of his best serving displays ever there is hardly any chance of an upset.

Pick Tsitsipas in 4

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56 Comments on Australian Open R3 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Millman, Tsitsipas vs. Raonic

  1. You do know this thing you do with “losing between 11-14” is a joke, right? There is a gulf of gambling possibilities between those parameters. Just use the spread. In this case Millman +8 -110 and choose a side.

  2. Today is upset city, lol!!! Almost everyone of note got blown out today!

    Sigh, Novak can now sleep walk to the final!! There is NO one on his side of draw to even take a set off him!!

  3. Some great potential 4th round matches coming up.

    Sangren v Fognini rematch. Will Fognini turn terrorist again?
    Theim will beat Fritz handily knowing he has an almost certain victory waiting against Monfils.
    Medvedev v Wawrinka should be a creacker worthy of a final
    Goffin v Zverev
    and the list goes on…

    Fed is extremely vulnerable right now.

  4. Roger needs a match like this if he expects to meet Novak!!! He’ll lose anyway, but still.

    I understand how ppl feel at the FO when they feel no one has a chance against Rafa there!!! U just know what the outcome is going to be, lol!! I feel the same way with the AO!!! I mean it’s almost pointless!! Its like we’re just waiting to c who the runner-up is going to be against Novak, sigh!!

  5. There’s only 1 player that can beat Djokovic on this surface atm and that’s Medvedev.

    Djokovic will have to have an average day and Medvedev will have to improve significantly in his next few matches.

      • Sorry, no matter how hard Rafa fights or fought, he still loses/lost to Djoko on the HCs in the end. Its just the way it is, Djoko is simply better than Rafa on the HCs in every aspect of the game, maybe with the exception of the volleying, and the overheads.

        Rafa’s topspin FH just isn’t made for the HCs, his court position too (more a clay court style than a HC style). He beat Djoko on the HCs in the past because he’s young and quick and so was able to cover the court well enough to give him better chances to beat Djoko; now that he’s older, he couldn’t move as well, hence Djoko was able to outmanuvre him so often.

        Rafa is not going to beat Djoko on the HCs, unless he can play like his USO2010 or 2013 – serving and hitting well, aggressive from start to finish, gaining the upperhand from the get go. If he’s always chasing from behind, he will not beat Djoko.

        Note that in all the matches that Rafa had beaten Djoko, ie 26 matches, only in three of them he lost the first set and had to chase from behind to win the matches – Madrid 2009, FO2015 and Wimbledon 2007 (where Djoko retired from the match); in all the 29 matches he lost to Djoko, only four of them he won the first set, that goes to show that Rafa has to come out being aggressive to sieze the upperhand if he were to win the match. If he comes out being tentative, he will most likely lose the match to Djoko.

        It goes to show that once Djoko has the upperhand from the start, its really hard to come from behind to beat him.

  6. @ Amy, lol!!

    It was a great match! Roger surely needed this, but good he won it at least! He can say he is battle tested now! Houdini!!

  7. Tsitsipas out. What a shame!

    Thiem plays well against Nole and he is on the opposite side. Medvedev is also on the opposite side!

    Speaking of Rog, I was rooting for him. Just because I saw a 38 yr old battling it out in conditions not in favor and against an inspired opponent. What a player Roger is! I must say, I’ll miss him when he retires.

    Incresible fight from Roger and he survives. Won’t be able to beat Novak if they meet but the legend grows!

    Millman really has patterns worked out against Fed. He almost employs Djoko like tactics to break Fed’s game down.

    • Yeah, I found myself rooting for Fed too, lol!! Y? Just because of the effort he was putting in, not ever giving up even when the odds were against him!! His stamina is not where he would like it to be but he gave it his heart and soul! The young players like Shapo and Zverev must learn from that! It’s so shameful how they expect to just be handed a win on a platter when they come out on court! I hope Roger at least makes it to the semis, it will be a good result nonetheless. I enjoyed the match!

      Hope Rafa spares me a heart attack tonight!! Vamos!!

  8. Watching that one reminded me of all the Federer v Djokovic battles – which in recent times mostly consists of bad memories.

    Honestly you could tell from the start tonight that Fed was going to play poorly. Multiple UE’s off both sides, big shanks, erratic serves – it was all there. Huge contrast compared to his composure last match. Admittedly that was against a much lesser opponent, but even so.

    You could blame it on Millman or rust or the conditions, but I think it’s all about age. Increasingly in the last few years there are big swings in Federer’s form from match to match. He’ll play a couple of great matches and then the type of poor one that would have him losing to a lot of top players.

    Credit to Millman though, he never gave an inch until that TB. He was unlucky not to win it.

    It’ll be interesting to see if Fed can bounce back from a draining four hour thriller. Fucsovics is in great form right now.

    • Fucsovics will be a problem for Fed, as I think Fed will be dead tired from this four hour match. Fucsovics seems to be another Millman type of player, I remember him grinding against Djoko at 2018 USO, I think in R1 and Djoko had a hard time beating him.

      • I agree, Lucky. Fed won in straight sets both times they played (AO 2018 and Dubai last year), but Fusco really played him tough both times. The question is really whether tonight was a fluke, or if it was a sign of what’s to come from Fed. It’s possibke it could be a fluke due to his previous weird loss to Millman, as Fed look insanely good the previous two matches. But it could just as easily not be a fluke, as Fed has naturally been very up and down at his age. His game on serve has been his saving grace the last couple years. If he can do really well on his serve, he can at least stay in matches like he did tonight. But it will be very rough against Fusco if he makes that many errors again.

  9. Yeah it is age as we will all realise sooner or later for ourselves, lol! But I guess at the end of the day its about attitude as well as effort! Good on Roger, wish him the best for the tournament!

    Now come on Rafa!!

    • What the 3 goats🐐🐐 🐐Rafa, Fed and Nole have is heart and guts. It’s intrinsic to their greatness. Talent by itself ain’t enough…

  10. Wow. I was certain that Fed was done in that tiebreak. I feel like Rafa had a similar situation against someone last year, where he was down a lot in a tiebreak and stormed back to win many points in a row and win. It’s amazing that these guys are still, after all these years, able to dig so deep when it would be so easy to completely give up. Particularly at age 38- when it’s 4-8 in the match tiebreak, and your whole body and mind is screaming at you because you’re an old man, it must be so easy to just decide it’s not your night and pack it in. Fed actually said in his on-court interview that that thought crossed his mind! But as is usually necessary, he got a little luck combined with not making errors himself, and he got himself that second life. And he took advantage. He had 82- I repeat, 82!- unforced errors in the match, but he managed to not make one during 6 straight points. Due to the fact that Fed has lost some really close matches over the years to Novak or Rafa, it can be easy to forget that he has also won a lot of really tight big matches. He may not have the reputation of being as clutch as Novak and Rafa, but you don’t win 20 majors and have all the other achievements without having to come up big in big moments. My hat’s off to 38 year-old Fed today.

    Here’s what I really want to know, though- what the hell is it about John Millman where he’s able to play like a top-5 player when he faces Roger Federer, but ONLY against Roger Federer?? It’s so strange! I know that Millman is known as one of the fittest players on tour, so maybe he’s just a really bad matchup for an old man? I just don’t know. Over the last couple years, Fed has clearly struggled at times against the young, powerful players who have a ton of physical stamina. Millman has the world-class stamina, but he’s not ultra-powerful or anything! His serve isn’t even that fast for a tall guy.

    If Fed doesn’t clean up those UE’s, he could struggle a lot with Fucsovics. Fed has won all 5 sets they’ve played against each other, but Fucso played him tough both times. It will interesting to see if tonight was just a fluky performance from Fed, or if it’s a sign of what’s to come.

  11. I’m disappointed that Tsitsipas lost. He’s my dark horse to beat Djoko and even Fed after that, but too bad, now only Cilic or Raonic left, or maybe Schwartzman? But, none of them will beat Djoko imo.

    Seems that Rafa’s half of the draw looks the tougher half, as all the seeds are still there.

      • Rafa can beat Kyrgios provided he ups his level from his previous match (against Delbonis).

        He needs to improve his ROS imo, 3/20 BP conversion rate is not going to cut it against Kyrgios. Anyway, Kyrgios won’t give him 20 BP chances I feel.

        • These days you never know which Rafa you will get. The big three are up and down these days, yes, Novak too! U just never know who will show up. Neither of them are crisp as before and the young players are getting much much better as time passes. I think this year is the last year either of them will win majors handily. Even FO is on the line as Rafa is no longer at his devastating best like before. I take Rafa’s matches one day at a time, its just not like it used to be anymore, sigh! But….

          VAMOS, Rafa!!

    • @ atul1958, no matter who comes up against Novak its just a formality!! Give Novak the trophy already!!!

      Yeah, and Rafa’s draw is aweful!!! If Rafa was in his 20s then I would say yep he can do it, but at his age, nah! He may beat Kyrios but that is as far as it goes Im afraid!! Its best Rafa was the #2 seed! That’s y i hate this #1 badge for Rafa!! I would prefer if he wasn’t #1. Although if he was #2 he would still manage to have all those players in his half, sigh!

      But then again, in tennis, anything can happen!!

  12. Only Schwartzman left who could give Djoko a little bit of problems; if Djoko beats him, then I think none of Cilic or Raonic could stop Djoko. No one left in Fed’s quarter could beat Djoko imo, so I think Djoko again will reach the final.

    Rafa or Medvedev to reach the final from the other half and Meddy to win it if he reaches the final, if not then Djoko to win against anyone else.

    • Why writing off rafa lucky. If rafa reaches final why can’t he do the unthinkable just like fed did vs rafa in 2017 ao. Nobody gave fed a chance then but he still did it. I think Rafa can too. Any streak has to end someday ..so will rafas losing streak against Novak on hc. The issue is rafa reaching the final. I think if he reaches final..he will come to play..it won’t be as straightforward as last year ..can be more like 2012

  13. Does anyone else feel like Fed looked at times during the match like an old man? Like he looked like your average 38 year old at times? I haven’t felt this very often, but I really felt like I was seeing his age more than ever at times. It shouldn’t be surprising, honestly, but it just seemed more noticeable than usual to me.

    • The Australian heat can have that effect on you the older you get. It zaps all your energy.

      Millman was on top form and is use to that kind of heat so it was a great effort to get the win.

      • It really wasn’t that hot here yesterday, the top was like 23-24, but by the time the match started at like 8:30pm it would’ve been like 18 degrees celsius (about 65F for all the Americans out there). Pretty mild weather.

    • At times, yes. Movement looked like Fed though, to me. Lots more errors than usual for Fed. Maybe he’s struggling with the balls still. Having them change so quickly as the gritty court scuffs them up probably plays havoc with his precision. Good job by him to pull out the win!

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