Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Zverev

Friday’s nightcap at the Nitto ATP Finals between Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev is guaranteed to have some importance in terms of semifinal qualification, at least when it begins.

If Rafael Nadal beats Stefanos Tsitsipas during the day session, Medvedev would be eliminated but Zverev would need to win for a place in the semis. If Tsitsipas beats Nadal, both Medvedev and Zverev would remain alive. The Russian would have to sweep the German in straight sets in order to steal a semifinal spot, while Zverev would advance simply by taking a single set.

In other words, the Nadal-Tsitsipas outcome could have a major impact on how Medvedev vs. Zverev plays out.

Whatever the case, Zverev leads the head-to-head series 4-1 heading into this showdown. All four of his victories, however, came prior to the arrival of the new and improved Medvedev. The current world No. 7 prevailed once in 2016, once in 2017, and twice in 2018–all on hard courts and once indoors. They most recently faced each other in the Shanghai final this fall, when Medvedev triumphed 6-4, 6-1.

As those results suggest, the 23-year-old is a completely different player this season. He is up to fourth in the rankings thanks mostly to an amazing hot streak in which he made six consecutive final appearances with titles in Cincinnati, St. Petersburg, and Shanghai. Some much-needed time off seems to have sapped Medvedev’s momentum, as he fell right away in Paris to Jeremy Chardy and is 0-2 in London with losses to Nadal and Tsitsipas. Against the world No. 1 on Wednesday night, Medvedev led 5-1 in the third set with Nadal serving down match point at 30-40 before collapsing and succumbing 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(4).

“I just need to close out such matches,” Medvedev admitted. “(I) probably need to still continue working mentally as I do every day to be better. There were many things to tell not good about my mentality on the court, my attitude. So hopefully I’m not going to have matches like this in my career, but we never know. I’m going to try my best to not have them.”

Zverev lost in much different fashion on Wednesday, an alarming 6-3, 6-2 result against Tsitsipas. The 22-year-old at least managed to begin his week with a 6-2, 6-4 rout of Nadal, but Nadal was far worse in that match than he was against Medvedev. Zverev clearly has to raise his level if he wants to avoid a second straight drubbing at Medvedev’s hands.

“He played a fantastic match, I thought,” Zverev said of Tsitsipas. “I played really bad…. He played really well. But still, there [are] a lot of things that I did not do great, and I have to change that to have a chance on Friday. Things are still in my hands, and I’m looking forward to it because I can still decide whether I’m here on Saturday or not.”

If Tsitsipas wins earlier in the day, Zverev might not be in London on Saturday because Medvedev would be inspired to save his own tournament life. But if Nadal beats Tsitsipas, Medvedev would be eliminated and the situation would change drastically. Based on current form and their most recent matchup, an edge goes to Medvedev with all other things being equal.

Pick: Medvedev in 2

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