The U.S. Open–the final Grand Slam of the season–is less than a week away, and the seeds were officially announced on Wednesday morning. Here is a breakdown of the groups, with each one ranked from strongest to weakest.
1. Novak Djokovic – As winner of four of the last five majors (each of the last four on non-clay surfaces, including the 2018 U.S. Open), Djokovic is the obvious favorite.
2. Rafael Nadal – Nadal may not be far behind. The second-ranked Spaniard won the 2017 U.S. Open and is coming off a big hard-court title in Montreal.
3-4
3. Roger Federer – Both Djokovic and Nadal would much rather have Dominic Thiem in their half of the draw instead of Federer. It was a similar story for the third-seeded Nadal at Wimbledon.
4. Dominic Thiem – The gap between the Big 3 and everyone else is vast, despite Daniil Medvedev’s form. Thiem remains a question mark away from clay.
5-8
5. Daniil Medvedev – Nobody is hotter right now than Medvedev, but it remains to be seen what he can do at slams in a best-of-five format.
8. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Tsitsipas was the toast of the tennis town in the first half of the season; now it’s his rival and nemesis Medvedev.
7. Kei Nishikori – Something always seems to be up with Nishikori, either injury or illness. He may not be in peak form right now.
6. Alexander Zverev – Zverev has been surpassed by Medvedev in the rankings and in terms of expectations. Could that be a good thing?
9-12
10. Roberto Bautista Agut – Bautista Agut’s slam breakthrough came at Wimbledon, where he reached the semis. He is into the top 10 for the first time ever.
9. Karen Khachanov – Khachanov consistently reaches the third round and sometimes fourth round of slams. Can he take the next step?
11. Fabio Fognini – Fognini is capable of beating anyone on any given day; just ask Nadal! But the Italian can just as easily flame out in round one.
12. Borna Coric – Coric has not been 100 percent of late and the result is a relative slump. Expectations should not be high at Flushing Meadows.
13-16
13. Gael Monfils – At 100 percent, this would be a downright terrifying group of four. Monfils could do the most damage of the quartet based on current form.
15. David Goffin – Goffin is coming off a runner-up showing in Cincinnati, where he benefited from a favorable draw before losing to Cincinnati. But he doesn’t have the firepower that Monfils can bring against top players.
14. John Isner – Isner is the most dangerous of this group because of his serve, but the 6’10” American is not all the way back from a spring stress fracture.
16. Kevin Anderson – Anderson, the 2017 U.S. Open runner-up, is still struggling physically and may not even play in New York City.
17-24
23. Stan Wawrinka– The 2016 U.S. Open champion may not be back to his very best, but he is playing decent right now and can beat anyone when he’s on.
17. Nikoloz Basilashvili – Basilashvili is the two-time reigning champion in Hamburg. When he’s hot, he can be really on fire. That was sort of the case last year in New York.
22. Marin Cilic – Cilic can get hot from out of the blue. But based on current form, it would be a real shock if it happens now. The 2014 Cilic ain’t walkin’ through that door.
18. Felix Auger-Aliassime – Auger-Aliassime has cooled off since winning his first two matches at Wimbledon. His collapse against Khachanov in Montreal was a tough one.
21. Milos Raonic – Like Cilic, Raonic can be a threat. But he is just too injury plagued to inspire much confidence during the upcoming fortnight.
20. Diego Schwartzman – Schwartzman is also playing great in 2019. He often excels at the U.S. Open, too, but he does not have the weapons to pull off a major upset.
19. Guido Pella – Like his fellow Argentine Schwartzman, Pella is enjoying by far the best season of his career. It includes an improbably trip to the Wimbledon quarterfinals.
24. Matteo Berrettini – Berrettini had a ton of momentum after a brilliant grass-court swing, but an ankle injury has derailed everything.
25-32
28. Nick Kyrgios– As combustible as Kyrgios is, he is the last player in the 25-32 group that a top-eight player wants to see in the third round.
26. Taylor Fritz – Fritz is feeling it right now, reaching finals left and right this summer. Is he due for his first breakout at a slam?
25. Lucas Pouille – Pouille is no stranger to U.S. Open success and he picked up some momentum with a quarterfinal finish in Cincinnati.
29. Benoit Paire – Paire is a former fourth-round performer at this tournament. He would have to get the right draw to make it that far again.
32. Fernando Verdasco – Verdasco remains dangerous in the latter stages of his career, but he is also susceptible to an early upset loss.
30. Kyle Edmund – This is not the same Edmund who reached the last four at the 2018 Australian Open. Injuries have been part of the problem.
27. Dusan Lajovic – Lajovic’s ranking is a bit inflated due to a runner-up finish in Monte-Carlo. He won’t really scare any of the top guys.
31. Christian Garin – Garin probably has to be considered the weakest seeded player in the field given that these are relatively fast hard courts.
[polldaddy poll=10388741]
thoughts before tomorrow’s draw?
Novak will have Fed, Tsitsi, medvedev, Kyrgios, khachanov, Zverev
Nadal needs to avoid federer (not his half, he has drawn him each of the last 3 slams this year and it cannot be just random, I think organisers purposely do it for blockbuster tickets and tv ratings )and nick kyrgios ( Novak’s third round opponent hopefully to enjoy the spice )n hopefully draw nishi or zverev in qtrs
Agreed. I would pay money for Rafa to avoid NK which I fear more than RF! I can’t stand seeing Nick facing Rafa as their encounter is always the source of frustration for us his fans! Even when Rafa wins in the end I feel drained and stressed for long afterwards… hope Nick meets Novak this time around! I am sure Novak will give him a beat down as he does not seem to be as intimidated by Nick as Rafa is…
He has never beaten Nick…how can we say he is not intimidated. It is a lot dependant on which kyrgios turns up.
Djokovic’s two losses v NK were in 2017, when he was losing quite a lot to a lot of people. And I would rather see Djoker draw NK than the rest of the Top 4 because I’m pretty sure NK would lose.
@ramara,
Indeed.
I know whose quarter NK won’t be in. 🙂
I am not saying Novak is not intimidated, he probably is, so is everyone I think…but for Rafa it is definitely a tough matchup since Rafa must cope with Nick’s bad behavior and personal attacks more than anything else, which seem to be more taxing on Rafa’s game than Nick’s tennis…No matter what I hope Rafa avoids this lunatic…
Rafa to get Khachanov, Isner, Kyrgios in his quarter.
Roger to get Nishi or Zverev in his quarter and likely Rafa in his half rather than Thiem who’s 4-1 vs Fed outdoors on all three surfaces.
Nole to get Thiem in his half and Medvedev in his quarter.
Kyrgios most likely to be in Rafa’s quarter. Otherwise Nole gets him.
Rafa to win his 19th slam.
From your mouth to God’s ears! 💪💪
You can watch the draw live here:
https://www.si.com/tennis/2019/08/22/us-open-draw-live-stream-watch-ceremony-online-time-date
(Don’t be surprised if Nole can’t look at each number he picks.)
#NeedToKnowBasis
#ScovilleJenkins
Well, you got a couple of picks right but on the whole your Hawkstradamus vision failed you.
Khachanov in Rafa’s quarter – Check!
Isner in Rafa’s quarter – Check!
Roger to get Nishi or Zverev in his quarter – Check!
Nole to get Medvedev in his quarter – Check!
Nole to get Thiem in his half – X
Kyrgios in Rafa or Nole’s quarter – X
Hawkstradamus predictions 4-2.
(Soon to be 5-2 when Rafa wins his 19th in two weeks.)
#HawkstradamusRising
Djoko will beat Kyrgios at the slams. Djoko is playing good tennis now, unlike those two times they met in 2017. Djoko serves and returns better than Rafa, and he moves better than Rafa too these days. There’s no reason he won’t beat Kyrgios.
I’m sorry, but I just don’t see Kyrgios as a legitimate threat to Rafa at the US Open. For one thing, NK hasn’t done anything meaningful at the majors aside of that one win over Rafa at Wimbledon in 2014. He just has shown me ZERO evidence that he can bring it enough to win 3 sets off of Rafa or Novak. Fed is another story now given his age, especially at the US Open. But Rafa or Novak? No way. Sure, NK can take out any of the Big 3 on any given day in best-of-THREE. But I have seen absolutely no evidence that he can compete well enough to take 3 sets off of them.
But most importantly, if NK is going to beat Rafa at a major, it sure as hell isnt going to be at the slower-than-death, tar-courts at US Open. I could just see it now- even if NK were able to streak to winning the first set, Rafa would just make the necessary adjustments in the 2nd set, and NK would likely just unravel. And it wouldn’t help matters that the courts play so slow. It would only frustrate him more. He’s just not a professional. If I had money, I would bet in a potential Rafa-Kyrgios US Open matchup that that Rafa comes away with the win about 19 out of 20 times.
Even though Wimbledon played noticeably slower this year, it was still at least low-bouncing, which favors a guy like NK. Despite the court speed at Wimbledon this year, Wimbledon was still NK’s best shot at beating Rafa again at a major- and he was OUTCLASSED by Rafa. If that was the result at Wimbledon, what is likely to happen at the US Open, where the conditions favor Rafa and he has won 3 of the last 9 titles? Same result.
Obviously NK is a good enough tennis player to where it’s certainly possible for him to beat Rafa or Novak at a major again. However, I just find it to be extremely unlikely. It is not unlikely at non-majors, but that’s a whole different story! I just feel like the threat people perceive in NK at the majors is overrated and largely unfounded. Beating those top guys at a major is INFINITELY more difficult than beating them at a Masters or a 500. Even at 38 years old, I would still favor Fed over NK at AO or Wimbledon. But at US Open, I personally think that NK and about 40 other players have legitimate chances of taking out Fed. US Open has recently been the antithesis of 38-year old Roger Federer, for a couple reasons. But as for Rafa and Novak? I feel almost more confident than ever that no one is realistically beating those two guys at 2019 US Open except for each other. I’ve just lost all faith in the rest of the field. Sure, Medvedev has much promise, but we said the same damn thing about Zverev and Tsitsipas and Khachanov and all those dudes. There may be one exception to me- Thiem. I felt last year like Thiem has good potential at US Open because the super slow conditions fit his game so well. If Thiem is going to legitimately contend at a non-clay major, it’s going to be the US Open. But when it comes down to it, I will still pick Novak or Rafa over Thiem all day.
Oh, I agree with you, it’s just that this year Novak is my NK killer of choice. 🙂 ND deserves a chance for revenge but I also think it’s pretty unlikely that NK survives that long.
The draw:
https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/2019_MS_draw.pdf