Montreal R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Evans, Tsitsipas vs. Hurkacz

Rafael Nadal will begin his bid for a fifth Rogers Cup title when he goes up against qualifier Dan Evans on Wednesday. Stefanos Tsitsipas and Hubert Hurkacz are also aiming for a place in the last 16.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (Q) Dan Evans

Nadal and Evans will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they clash in round two of the Rogers Cup on Wednesday afternoon. They came close to facing each other in the Wimbledon fourth round last month, but Evans lost a five-set thriller to Joao Sousa. The 53rd-ranked Brit has already done well to get a long-awaited shot at Nadal in Montreal, qualifying for the main draw before beating Atlanta champion Alex de Minaur 6-4, 7-6(6) on Tuesday.

Nadal, who dominated this event last year in Toronto, returns to Montreal after getting stunned by Denis Shapovalov during third-round action in 2018. This would be an even bigger upset, as Evans is not playing at home like Shapovalov was and he does not wield the same kind of offensive firepower. Nadal, the reigning French Open champion and recent Wimbledon semifinalist, should be able to maintain his fine form without too much trouble.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(ALT) Hubert Hurkacz vs. (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas was the story last summer in Toronto, where he made a memorable run to the title match before succumbing to Nadal. The 20-year-old Greek returns as one of the favorites this time around, registering at No. 5 in the world and seeded fourth due to the absences of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Tsitsipas is coming off a semifinal performance in Washington, D.C., where he succumbed to eventual champion Nick Kyrgios.

Up first for Tsitsipas on Wednesday is a fourth career contest against Hurkacz, who is getting swept in the head-to-head series 3-0. They have squared off three times on hard courts (counting the 2018 NextGen ATP Finals, which might as well be an exhibition), with Tsitsipas taking seven of the eight total sets. Hurkacz defeated Taylor Fritz 6-3, 7-5 on Tuesday, but a fatigued Fritz was coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes in Atlanta and Los Cabos. This is a steep step up in competition–which the 48th-ranked Pole knows all too well.

Pick: Tsitsipas in 2

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18 Comments on Montreal R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Evans, Tsitsipas vs. Hurkacz

  1. What happened to Tsitsipas? Were his shoelaces out of order again??
    Seems to me that Stefanos is in a mini slump – or rather his more recent results are worse than his ranking would suggest. He may still have to adapt to his new status. He also said that next year he will play less tournaments, since he has to assume that he may go deeper in each event than in previous years.

    • Dunno what happened here, but aside from this he’s not been too bad. He ran into an inspired Stan in RG – that was one of the best matches of a tournament that wasn’t short on very good to great matches. Losing 1st round in Wimbly was an upset but semis in DC is quite respectable, aside from shoelace-gate.

  2. I think Tsitsipas has overplayed so is feeling the physical strain now. His level is so up and down from match to match (he’s more like Cilic these days, just don’t know what to expect from him in any match!).

    I feel his ROS really sucks, he better works on it if he wants to get good results, as most players come with big serves these days.

    • What has Tsitsi played? He went out 4th round at RG, 1st round at Wimbly. He must have played some grass court warm ups? Then he played Washington, lost in semis (NK’s serve can make anyone’s ROS look bad when it’s on!). That shouldn’t be too tough a schedule for a 21 year old?

      But he should cut out most of the 250’s now that he’s a big boy. And if DC, Rogers and Cincy are scheduled back to back to back, playing all three of them is kinda crazy.

      • Er.. Tsitsipas has already played 53 matches so far before coming to Montreal, that’s crazy! So it’s not just Wimbledon or after, but the whole year so far! It’s cumulative effect I believe; this is his second year playing the full tour, so perhaps he needs time to adjust to the playing schedule.

        I think there’re some periods that he played non stop back to back weeks – Sofia (QF), Rotterdam (R1), Marseille (W), Dubai (F); and then MC(R3), Barcelona(R3), Estoril (W), Madrid (F), Rome (SF) in consecutive 5 weeks during the clay season, it’s just crazy!

      • It’s not only against Kyrgios’s serve but against others’ too. He’s just not good with his ROS, just slightly better than Shapo though. FAA is better than them at his ROS, imo FAA has a more complete game (taking into account both the serve and the ROS).

    • Yes, Lucky, I noticed, too, that atm you never know what to expect from Tsitsi. Several factors may be at work, but being overplayed certainly doesn’t help. He said himself that he needs to reduce his schedule next year. Also, he rose so fast last year from virtual obscurity to being proclaimed to be the next bright young thing. It’s not easy under these circumstances to maintain a high level on a weekly basis. Also, this season he had to defend a lot of points for the first time in his career. And as a top-ten player he has now become a target.

      • What went wrong against Hurkacz btw? I haven’t seen the match. Hurkacz is a player whom Tsitsi has handled confidently in their past encounters. Therefore I find this loss a bit baffling. Has Hurkacz become better or is Tsitsi maybe a bit burned out?
        And, yes, certain aspects of his game still need to get better. He needs more time to develop them.

        • Sorry, I didn’t see the match. But the points being made by you and Luckystar, I agree with.

          All I know is that Hubert Hurkacz 22, is Polish, has a fresh face, is 6’5″, lean and moves well; serve is of course key and seems to be best on HC, unlike that other new fresh face, Ugo Humbert, French. Who was better on grass or clay (gosh I forget, exactly) It’s so hard keeping track of new faces in the ATP and WTA!!

          I’m not sure Hurkacz can make it past Monfils today. Monfils needs to have a good day at the office.

          • Thanks for the info. Sounds as if Hurkacz could have the ingredients for playing well on hardcourt.
            A good day at the office isn’t exactly Monfils’ speciality. He is more the man for a single great and entertaining show now and then, although I have no idea in what kind of shape he is these days.

          • Thanks for your comments littlefoot, always enjoy reading you.
            Monfils most always appears like he is going to lose these days but somehow he got this far. Not sure about his shape – physically he appears fine. Focus-wise it’s shaky. I’d guess Hurkacz has the edge there.

            It’s one of those wait and see matches. If Monfils can play his best physically and keep focused, I tend to want to believe in him lol…(not really sure)

        • Elizabeth, I also enjoy your comments a lot. And you and ratcliff are identical, right☺? I only figured it out when we had our chat about Novak’s latest Wimby trophy.
          I have always have a soft spot for Monfils. Although they have very different personalities, he has actually a few things in common with Kyrgios, since you never know what you will get. Like Kyrgios he has often problems with concentration. And for him a good show and dazzling trick shots often seem to be more important than having long term sustainable success. He has been accused of being an incurable showboater. But he hasn’t Kyrgios’ abrasive and confrontational personality which can be so alienating. Monfils comes across as a really nice and amicable guy. It’s too bad that he didn’t have a greater impact during his prime years. But then again, the tour is richer and more enjoyable because of players like him.

          • So true. Monfils is a much less abrasive or polarizing personality. And I agree we are richer for the many types of characters and personalities on the tour. I enjoy Monfils, Dogopolov (did he have to quit tennis?) I know he has a blood disorder or something, anyway I really liked his tennis.

            I’m disappointed FAA couldn’t keep going – watched the entire Khachanov v FAA match. Kachanov seems nice though and he had the stronger legs this time. Poor Karen was apologizing to everyone for winning lol He doesn’t have to do that! He played well.

            I also lost my pick Basilashvili to Zverev. Actually I’m happy Zverev won – it’s just that when I pick AZ he loses.

            So I did him a favor and didn’t pick Sascha 😀

            Khachanov v Zverev quarterfinal. Basilashvili took Zverev to the brink though. I think Khachanov will have more left for their QF.

            yes, Elizabeth is my name. I’m also ratcliff and not so much anymore “Jalep” (when I used to post on tX)

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