Rogers Cup (Montreal) preview and predictions

Roger Federer is once again skipping the Rogers Cup and Novak Djokovic is doing the same this time around, leaving Rafael Nadal as the No. 1 seed and odds-on favorite. Nadal, who triumphed last summer in Toronto, is joined in Montreal by the likes of Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, Nick Kyrgios, and the Canadian contingent of Milos Raonic, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Denis Shapovalov.

Rogers Cup

Where: Montreal, Canada
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $5,701,945
Points: 1000

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: As the only member of the Big 3 in action, Nadal is sure to make plenty of headlines this week–either for getting upset or for capturing a fifth Rogers Cup title. But it is the other side of the draw that is more interesting and much more up for grabs. No seeded player on that side looks like an absolute lock to make a deep run in Montreal. Thiem is coming off a title at home in Austria (Kitzbuhel), but he will be making a quick transition from his preferred clay-court surface to a trickier test on the hard stuff. Zverev, who lifted the trophy in Montreal two years ago, has done nothing in 2019 to suggest that will get the job done for a second time. Karen Khachanov has cooled off since his quarterfinal showing at the French Open and Medvedev may be fatigued on the heels of his Washington, D.C. exploits.

Moreover, the crop of unseeded threats is more than capable of throwing the bottom half into chaos. Kyrgios is there along with Auger-Aliassime, Shapovalov, Stan Wawrinka, Grigor Dimitrov, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Jan-Lennard Struff. A rematch of the Washington final between Medvedev and Kyrgios could take place in round two, while first-rounders to watch are Wawrinka vs. Dimitriov and Tsonga vs. Struff.

Nadal, on the other hand, will likely make light work of things at the top of the bracket–at least until the business end of the tournament. The second-ranked Spaniard’s opener will come against Alex de Minaur, who won in Atlanta last month but obviously did not face anyone like Nadal. Also is the top section are Fabio Fognini, David Goffin, Los Cabos semifinalists Guido Pella and Radu Albot, and Washington, D.C. semifinalist Peter Gojowyczk. Fognini has often been a problem for Nadal, but can the Italian take care of business for two matches in order to get another shot at the top seed?

Tsitsipas, who lost to Kyrgios in a Washington semifinal thriller, is the favorite on paper to be Nadal’s semifinal opponent. But the sixth-ranked Greek has to go up against either Hubert Hurkacz or a red-hot Taylor Fritz right off the bat. Kei Nishikori, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Los Cabos champion Diego Schwartzman could potentially meet Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals. That is not easy, to say the least.

First-round upset alert: Guido Pella over (15) David Goffin. Perennially underrated on faster surfaces simply because he is from Argentina, Pella is coming off a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon and a semifinal finish in Los Cabos. Goffin also reached the Wimbledon quarters but lost his Washington, D.C. opener to Yoshihito Nishioka. Although the Belgian leads this head-to-head series 3-0, both of their previous hard-court encounters have gone the distance (including a five-setter at the 2017 U.S. Open).

Hot: Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, Roberto Bautista Agut, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Alex de Minaur, Radu Albot, Guido Pella, Peter Gojowyczk, Taylor Fritz, Diego Schwartzman, Jan-Lennard Struff

Cold: Alexander Zverev, John Isner, Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils, Grigor Dimitrov, Denis Shapovalov, Marco Cecchinato, Vasek Pospisil

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Mikhail Kukushkin, Roberto Bautista Agut over Hubert Hurkacz, Felix Auger-Aliassime over Alexander Zverev, and Marin Cilic over John Isner

Semifinals: Nadal over Bautista Agut and Cilic over Auger-Aliassime

Final: Nadal over Cilic

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