If Roger Federer’s name had been on the No. 3 seed chip instead of Rafael Nadal’s, they still would have ended up in the same half of the draw when names were pulled from a hat during Friday morning’s Wimbledon draw ceremony. But that doesn’t mean this brewed-up seeding controversy will end anytime soon, as it would be Federer—not Nadal—with the tougher path to the semifinals if the seeding had not deterred from the rankings.
Either way, now that the bracket is set it’s time for the griping to end and the games to begin. There’s nothing Nadal can do about having Nick Kyrgios, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Marin Cilic in his eighth of the draw. Well, winning is one thing he could do about it. But winning will be a more difficult proposition for the Spaniard than it will be for Federer and Novak Djokovic in their respective sections. The absolute softest quarter of the draw, however, is home to Kevin Anderson and Alexander Zverev.
Djokovic’s quarter
Generally, it isn’t ideal in round one of a slam for any top player to run into an opponent who has beaten him twice before—including once at a major and once already in the same season. Yes, Philipp Kohlschreiber steamrolled Djokovic 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 at the 2009 French Open and upset him 6-4, 6-4 at this year’s Indian Wells Masters. Of course, this is not the Indian Wells Djokovic and this is not an in-form Kohlschreiber. The world No. 1 is a different beast in majors, having won three of the last four while also coming off a semifinal finish at Roland Garros. Kohlschrieber has plunged to 57th in the rankings at 35 years old and he is 0-2 on grass in 2019 with losses to opponents outside the top 75.
Kohlschreiber isn’t going to beat Djokovic and neither is anyone else during week one. The threats are either Gael Monfils or Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarters. But Monfils rarely rises to the occasion against the best in the business and Auger-Aliassime has never won a Grand Slam match. Although Tsitsipas would have no fear against Djokovic, the Greek may not get there if he has to meet nemesis Daniil Medvedev on the second Monday.
Best first-round matchup – Grigor Dimitrov vs. (Q) Corentin Moutet
Moutet isn’t a big name; not yet, at least. Current form, though, suggests the 20-year-old Frenchman can hang with and potentially even beat Dimitrov. Moutet reached the French Open third round (was one set away from playing Nadal in the fourth round), won a clay-court Challenger title in Lyon, and then qualified for Wimbledon without any trouble). Dimitrov, on the other hand, is a nightmarish 2-6 in his last eight main-draw matches. Still, the Bulgarian cannot be discounted because he remains undeniably talented and once made a run to the Wimbledon semis (2014).
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Best potential second-round matchup – (11) Daniil Medvedev vs. (Q) Alexei Popyrin
Best potential third-round matchup – (19) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (16) Gael Monfils
Possible surprises – Dimitrov has to break out of his slump at some point, and what better way to do it than at major he knows and loves against an opponent who has never won a slam match? It is not out of the question for the 28-year-old to oust Auger-Aliassime and eventually make the second week. Also don’t be surprised if Medvedev becomes as a quarterfinalist, as he must be salivating at the real possibility of another showdown with Tsitsipas.
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Anderson’s quarter
Based on every factor ever invented, Anderson is the weakest of the top four seeds. Based on current form and slam experience, Zverev is the weakest of the 5-8 seeds. Throw them together in the same section and what you get is a wildly up-for-grabs semifinal spot. And who are the contenders currently celebrating their good fortune of landing in this quarter? Among them are Karen Khachanov, Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka, Roberto Bautista Agut, Benoit Paire, and Feliciano Lopez.
Of that group, Bautista Agut may be liking his draw the most. The Spaniard can likely sleepwalk through two rounds before battling Khachanov, against whom he is 3-0 lifetime on anything other than clay (1-0 on grass). As for Raonic and Wawrinka, a third-round tussle under any circumstances would be huge. Given the opportunity in front of both players with this particular draw, it would be even bigger than usual.
Best first-round matchup — (4) Kevin Anderson vs. Pierre-Hugues Herbert
In past years, this matchup probably would have resulted in a rout in Anderson’s favor (it did, in fact, go to Anderson in straight sets at the 2015 Winston-Salem event). But the 2018 Wimbledon runner-up has been struggling physically, missing the clay-court swing due to an elbow injury and then losing in the Queen’s Club second round to Gilles Simon. Moreover, Herbert is now concentrating on singles after once being a borderline doubles specialist. In fact, the Frenchman was not even going to play doubles this upcoming fortnight until Andy Murray suddenly asked him to be his partner. Herbert is up to No. 38 in the world thanks in part to a recent semifinal showing in Halle.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (10) Karen Khachanov vs. (WC) Feliciano Lopez
Best potential third-round matchup – (15) Milos Raonic vs. (22) Stan Wawrinka
Possible surprises — Seriously, who would constitute a surprise a semifinalist? Anderson? If healthy, no. Zverev? No. Raonic or Wawrinka? Definitely not. Khachanov? No. Bautista Agut? No. Lopez? No; he just won Queen’s Club. Paire? N-…wait…. Yes! From a mental standpoint, Paire stringing together five straight standout performance would be shocking. But in terms of sheer talent, no one in this section completely blows him out of the water. Beyond the seeded players, Nicolas Jarry and current Antalya finalist Miomir Kecmanovic could make some noise.
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Nadal’s quarter
Nadal-Kyrgios this. Nadal-Kyrgios that…. That’s all anyone seems to be talking about when it comes to the men’s draw. But it’s not even a sure thing yet. Jordan Thompson, Kyrgios’ opening opponent, cannot be discounted. Honestly, if the winner was going to play the winner of something like Bradley Klahn vs. Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Thompson would probably win. Knowing what the immediate reward is, however, Kyrgios will almost certainly be inspired and thus take care of business. If he does, get your popcorn ready for Thursday.
If Nadal’s Wimbledon campaign doesn’t end with Kyrgios, neither will his difficult draw. Big hitters Tsonga and Cilic also loom prior to the quarterfinals, and even though they are far from their peaks right now they always have a chance to take the racket out of Nadal’s hands on grass. On the other side of this section, either Fabio Fognini or Gilles Simon could take advantage of Dominic Thiem’s inexperience on the green stuff.
Best first-round matchup — (5) Dominic Thiem vs. Sam Querrey
On paper, this has nightmare written all over it for Thiem. Clay has always been the Austrian’s best surface and grass is even worse for him than hard courts. Querrey, on the other hand, is a former Queen’s Club champion (2010) and his Wimbledon record includes a 2016 quarterfinal (beat Djokovic in the third round) and a 2017 semifinal (beat Tsonga, Anderson, and Murray). The 31-year-old currently finds himself in the Eastbourne final and he will enjoy two full days of rest because he does not face Thiem until Tuesday. Thiem, though, finished runner-up at the French Open and his Indian Wells title this spring confirms that he is no one-surface wonder.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (2) Rafael Nadal vs. Nick Kyrgios
Best potential third-round matchup – (12) Fabio Fognini vs. (20) Gilles Simon
Possible surprises — Nadal’s presence awoke a sleeping giant in Acapulco, and Kyrgios has been back asleep ever since. Will it have the same effect in Wimbledon? Stranger this have happened, and if Kyrgios upsets the 18-time major winner he immediately becomes the favorite to reach the semis. Also look for an in-form Simon and U.S. Open quarterfinalist John Millman to enjoy success in SW19. Querrey could, as well…but he could just as easily get thrashed by Thiem.
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Federer’s quarter
You know Federer has an easy draw when neither the ATP, Tennis.com, Swiss media, Eurosport, or the BBC (and the list could go on and on) has written a single article about how he has the toughest draw in human history. Not one! No, not even the most biased opinions can claim that Federer is in trouble in his quarter of the bracket. It will be smooth sailing for the 37-year-old in week one, although Alexander Bublik could at least provide some entertainment in the third round—albeit while getting disposed of in 90 minutes. It won’t get much testier in round four, as Jan-Lennard Struff is Federer’s likely foe at the point.
The interest is on the other side of this section. Nishikori is the favorite because he is a model of consistency, but Federer would be just fine with that because the world No. 7 has proven to be no threat to the top guys over the past five years. The winner of a third-round contest between John Isner and Matteo Berrettini would be far more dangerous on grass. Isner has not played since falling to Federer in the Miami final, so hopes are not high for the 2018 Wimbledon semifinalist. As such, this could be a red-hot Berrettini’s breakthrough at the slam level.
Best first-round matchup — Taylor Fritz vs. Tomas Berdych
Fritz vs. Berdych has no business being a “best first-round matchup,” but such is the nature of things in Federer’s quarter. It’s just not very strong—and won’t become strong unless Berrettini remains on fire or Isner shakes off his rust in incredibly quick fashion. Speaking of rust, there is no guarantee that Berdych will even stay in the Wimbledon draw. The 33-year-old Czech has not played since Indian Wells because of back issue. If somehow healthy, though, he could do damage. Berdych is 12-6 this season and he is an awesome 42-14 lifetime at the All-England Club with a final run in 2010. Fritz, meanwhile, is battling Querrey for the Eastbourne title on Saturday.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (27) Lucas Pouille vs. Alexander Bublik
Best potential third-round matchup – (9) John Isner vs. (17) Matteo Berrettini
Possible surprises — The only way Federer isn’t winning this quarter is if Isner is 100 percent, plays his way into form with easy matches in round one and two, beats Berrettini, and then topples Nishikori. None of that—aside from maybe easing though two rounds—is likely. Berrettini should be the only surprise in this section, and the fact that he “should be” means it wouldn’t really be surprising. Based on the draw, this could be good time for Alex de Minaur to end his slump.
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thoughts?
Hi Ricky, Great piece, thanks for the hard work. I’ve been lurking and occasionally participating for about a year now and appreciate all the hard work that you two do to keep the site interesting! I have a question about your pick records. For example, if you pick Fed to beat Rafa in 3 and Fed beats Rafa 2-0 is that considered a win or loss in your record?
Also, can you point me towards any sites covering the WTA?
thank you, Aron
I feel the men’s title will be Roger’s this time around because Nadal will not make the semis and Federer will not be too tired to face Djokovic .. http://www.138mph.com/nadal-tough-draw-federer-and-djokovic-have-easy-at-wimbledon-2019/
Ricky, who are your picks now that Coric is out of Wimbledon? Berretini is now in Coric’s spot (can face Fed in 4R) and Struff is now in Berretini’s old spot vs Albot
Novak will beat Roger in the final in 3 sets. Remember this and see u on 14th July. Good stuff, my good Ricky.
Rafa will hold his 19th slam trophy in two weeks time
By next year RG, Rafa would have passed Roger’s slogan count
slam count
Djokovic has not been the same player since the AO. Even if he does make the final this year, if he faces Fed I think it will be a bit like AO 2017 final but with a different opponent for Roger. Fed will defeat Djokovic like he should have done in 2015, when he was playing the better tennis but choked, maybe because he was nervous about it being his last chance. Fed doesn’t seem to worry about that anymore and is playing more freely this year than I’ve ever seen since his prime. I think that will take him to the wimby title.
TBH, I wasn’t impressed by Fed at Halle, so to me it’s not a sure thing he’ll get to the final. Djoko and Rafa hadn’t played much except some exho matches so I really have no idea how they’ll do at Wimbledon.
I see Tsitsipas, Cilic, Berretini, Feli, Simon as potential hurdles for the top few guys; to me Fed has the easiest draw among the four quarters, so he’ll most likely reach the SF, from then it’ll be anybody’s guess, be it Rafa or Cilic or Tsonga that he’ll meet in the SF.
Djoko has first FAA in R4 followed by Tsitsipas most likely in the QF so there’s also no guarantee that he’ll make the SF. The last quarter is really wide open, any one of the top ten guys there plus Raonic or Stan could make it to the SF. If Djoko could get to the SF, most likely he’ll then get to the final.
Berretini can be a banana skin for fed in fourth round just like tsitsipas was at ao..
FAA won’t beat djokovic bit tsitsipas can however tsitsi has his own landmines to conquer first
All Rafa haters have come out in full force to predict doomsday for him and this time they have the brutal draw to fall back on..
Before a ball has been played..fed is getting the title.reason is he is playing freely n playing freely has made him lose so many crunch matches in big tourneys like ao,Indian Wells,madrid,french n made him win 2 500s n a master’s where he faced no one of big repute. These people will give fed the title even when he is 50 🙂 because changes in game of his opponents does not count 🙂
Lol at bigger racquet head n improved bh sure to take Rafa out at french 🙂 this time if both Rafa n fed reach semi, I won’t be surprised if these experts give Rafa just 6 games (2 per set ) :+)
I don’t see any mention of Nadal above. Why do you think every comment is about him? I predict Fed to win the title. How come I am an “expert”? Am I not like any other commentator on this site with an opinion? Who do you think will win, Sanju?
I am surprised by the colorfulness of Ricky’s analysis. He generaly always managed to stay away from it. In fairness, while Nadal’s draw at RG was very kind (he got Nishikori, avoided Tsitsipas and Thiem, and even Fognini), his draw at Wimbledon is more brutal. That being said, the fact that Nadal might have to go through Kyrgios, Tsonga or Shapovalov, Cilic and Federer before reaching the final means that he is likely to expand much more energy getting there. The early rounds, where the grass is more slippery are the most dangerous for his knees. Apart from perhaps Tsonga- whose backhand shouldn’t reliable enough in a best of 5 against Nadal- the heavy hitters that Nadal is poised to face in his quarter are far from being red hot. That is why I see Nadal winning his quarter.
Federer’s quarter, as it’s been widely reported, should pose no problem apart from Berrettini. Berrettini’s level has been very high throughout the grass court season, his only loss coming against Goffin in three sets where he probably ran out of gas. If Federer can navigate through it, he shouldn’t have any problem getting the the semis since Nishikori is hardly a threat these days, especially on grass and Isner hasn’t played since March.
Given the recent H2H record between Nadal and Federer, the fact that Nadal might have spent more energy to get there, but mainly the surface, I see Federer getting to the final.
In the upper part of the draw, Djokovic’s draw is probably not kind either. There are players who might theoretically pose him problems but he is not realistically threatened given he is focused. In my opinion, the biggest threat could come from Felix Auger-Aliassime but the teenager has to get by dimitrov and potentially Monfils so he might come in slighly tired against Djokovic in round 4 if he gets there. Tsitsipas is touted as a potential threat to the world number 1 but given his H2H against Medvedev, his low ranking in ELO gras, and the clear edge of the surface going to Djokovic, I can hardly see djokovic falling to him. Goffin could also be a fourth round opponent but he lacks the proper weapons to threaten Djokovic on grass. Djokovic to reach the semis in easier-than-anticipated fashion.
As for Anderson’s quarter, it’s obviously the most open quarter. As a matter of fact, I see Anderson losing to Herbert in round 1. If Zverev had any kind of measures of success in grand slam, I’d say that it would be his quarter to lose. Given his lack of success in grand slams and the year he’s having, he’ll probably lose in the early rounds and a loss against Jiri Vesely is certainly is real possibility. Raonic’s serve in Queens was as good as it was in the past but his baseline play was abysmal. It seems to me that he also didn’t venture as often to the net, which could be linked to his injuries, past or present. Wawrinka played very well in the last couple of months and I see him getting the better of Raonic should the two meet. As for my pick to get to SF, I like RBA. He looked sharp in Halle and should probably have beaten Federer. Khachanov could pose a problem but it’s far from certain he will get that far since he will probably face a red-hot Lopez in second round.
SF: Djokovic to beat RBA
Final: While Federer should make this competitive given it’s on grass, Djokovic has beaten Federer 5 times in there last 6 games and twice at Wimbledon (2014-2015). When one considers that Federer is almost 38 years old and that there is nobody better than Djokovic at extending points (although in that regard, Nadal is a close second) and returning serve, I can hardly see any other outcome than a Djokovic win. I’d say Djokovic in 4.
It’s a boring prediction I know, but it’s also the most likely.
I would be extremely happy if Stefanos Tsitsipas made it to play Novak; but first Stefanos has to beat his nemesis, Medvedev. So I doubt we get Stefanos v Novak.
Bad draw for S. Tsitsipas.
I think Tsisipas will get his revenge on Medvedev this time. Med’s level has come from where it was a couple months ago. Still not sure that Stefanos can take out Novak at Wimby, but I think he’ll get the chance.
Sorry, should have been: Med’s level has come down from where it was 2 months ago.
Oh Joe, I hope you are right!
Goffin could beat Medvedev in 5 sets maybe. That’s my only hope – Medvedev gets knocked out and Tsitsipas doesn’t have to play the annoying player, D. Medvedev.
Why don’t you like Medvedev? He’s very solid if a bit boring. Temperamentally, I think he has a bit of Kyrgios in him, but he’s worked very hard over the past year to improve.
I didn’t consider him at all – no feelings either way about Medvedev until he starting beating Stefanos. Stefanos is a favorite already, Joe. Not enough tho that I want him beating Novak 😉 this Wimbledon!
Cranky Daniil annoys me. I’d rather watch Kyrgios! He makes me laugh.
GOAT!!!