Rotterdam, New York, and Buenos Aires previews and predictions

The February grind continues with the first 500-point tournament of the season. Although the Rotterdam field may not be as strong as it sometimes is, it still boasts Kei Nishikori, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Milos Raonic, and Stan Wawrinka. Meanwhile, the first U.S.-based ATP event of 2019 takes place in New York and the Golden Swing continues in Buenos Aires.

ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament

Where: Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 1,961,160 Euros

Top seed: Kei Nishikori
2018 champion: Roger Federer (not playing)

Draw analysis: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Pierre-Hugues Herbert are making their way to Rotterdam following their all-French title match in Montpellier. Adding insult to injury on the heels of his third career ATP final loss (0-3), Herbert has to go up against Nishikori in the opening round. The whole top half of the draw is tough, with the Japanese No. 1 seed potentially having to face Ernests Gulbis in the last 16, Nikoloz Basilashvili in the quarterfinals, and either Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, or Tomas Berdych in the semis. Wawrinka is clashing with good friend and familiar foe Benoit Paire in the first round.
Tsonga awaits a qualifier before potentially running into second-seeded Karen Khachanov. That looks like a relative favorable path through this 500-point event in what is a softer bottom half. Daniil Medvedev should actually be considered the all-around best player in Rotterdam based on his current level, but he contested the Sofia final on Sunday and may be fatigued. The Russian also has to contend with an in-form Jeremy Chardy during round-one action. Tsitsipas has a friendlier draw and should coast into at least the quarterfinals.

First-round upset alert: Gael Monfils over (8) David Goffin. Goffin has not returned to his prime since injuries plagued some of his 2017 campaign and much of last season. He is 3-1 lifetime against Monfils, but the Frenchman has a clear edge in current form coming off a Sofia semifinal performance. With three indoor matches already under his belt, Monfils should be comfortable in these conditions.

Hot: Kei Nishikori, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Milos Raonic, Daniil Medvedev, Lucas Pouille, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Marton Fucsovics, Tomas Berdych, Jeremy Chardy

Cold: David Goffin, Hyeon Chung, Damir Dzumhur

Quarterfinal predictions: Nikoloz Basilashvili over Denis Shapovalov, Milos Raonic over Tomas Berdych, Andreas Seppi over Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Karen Khachanov over Jeremy Chardy

Semifinals: Raonic over Basilashvili and Khachanov over Seppi

Final: Raonic over Khachanov

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New York Open

Where: New York, New York
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $694,955

Top seed: John Isner
Defending champion: Kevin Anderson

Draw analysis: With Nishikori taking his talents to Rotterdam and Kevin Anderson out, the second installment of this New York event is saddled with a watered-down field. Of course, that means the title is totally up for grabs—especially because John Isner has made another traditionally slow start to the season. The ninth-ranked American has never played well in January for February (outside of Auckland, at least), but this draw should provide him with an opportunity for some success. Isner’s top quarter includes little more than Aussies Jordan Thompson and Bernard Tomic. Potential semifinal adversaries for the No. 1 seed are John Millman, Adrian Mannarino, Mackenzie McDonald, and Reilly Opelka.

A deeper bottom half features Americans Frances Tiafoe, Steve Johnson, Tennys Sandgren, Ryan Harrison, and 2018 runner-up Sam Querrey in addition to Ivo Karlovic and recent Montpellier semifinals Radu Albot. Karlovic and Albot are going head-to-head right off the bat, with the winner likely to meet Querrey.

First-round upset alert: Reilly Opelka over (5) Adrian Mannarino. Mannarino has been an absolute disaster this season, with a 0-3 record at the ATP level and 0-1 in Challengers (recently lost to world No. 207 Jurij Rodionov on in the indoor hard courts of Rennes). Opelka, who upset Isner at the Australian Open, should be confident amidst indoor conditions for his huge-hitting game.

Hot: Frances Tiafoe, John Millman, Tennys Sandgren, Ivo Karlovic, Mackenzie McDonald, Radu Albot, Reilly Opelka

Cold: John Isner, Adrian Mannarino, Denis Istomin, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Bernard Tomic

Semifinal predictions: John Millman over John Isner and Ivo Karlovic over Steve Johnson

Final: Millman over Karlovic

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Argentina Open

Where: Buenos Aires, Argentina
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: $590,745

Top seed: Dominic Thiem
Defending champion: Dominic Thiem

Draw analysis: Dominic Thiem got off to another predictably rough start to the year on hard courts. Will red clay solve all of his troubles, like it did in 2018 when lifted the trophy at this tournament and went on to be by far the second-best clay-court player of the season? It’s certainly possible starting this week, but the Buenos Aires field is a respectable one by 250-point standards. The top-seeded Austrian could be challenged by Joao Sousa in the quarterfinals and by either Diego Schwartzman or David Ferrer in the semis.

Fabio Fognini may not have as much competition on the other side of the bracket, where Guido Pella could be a factor but will have to make a quick turnaround on the heels of a Cordoba final appearance. French Open semifinalist Marco Cecchinato and 2018 Golden Swing standout Nicolas Jarry might also make some noise and deny Fognini a place in championship Sunday.

First-round upset alert: Leonardo Mayer over (7) Dusan Lajovic. Neither player is in particularly strong form at the moment and their 1-1 head-to-head record (both on clay) also suggests that this is a 50-50 matchup. Mayer has home-court advantage in Argentina and he is arguably a superior clay-court player, so a minor upset may be in the cards.

Hot: Joao Sousa, Juan Ignacio Londero, Guido Pella

Cold: Dominic Thiem, David Ferrer

Semifinal predictions: Joao Sousa over David Ferrer and Nicolas Jarry over Fabio Fognini

Final: Sousa over Jarry

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