2018 U.S. Open draw analysis

For the first time since Wimbledon more than a full year ago, the Big 4 are all playing in the same tournament. Much unlike the case with last summer’s event, the 2018 U.S. Open draw is absolutely loaded. They say New York is the city that never sleeps—and it won’t on this men’s singles event; not in the early rounds, not in the late rounds, and not in the middle rounds.

It will start, in part, with Grigor Dimitrov vs. Stan Wawrinka. Like Wawrinka, Andy Murray is an unseeded three-time major champion and he could meet Juan Martin Del Potro in the third round. Roger Federer’s third-rounder could come against Nick Kyrgios. Should the 37-year-old Swiss advance through that showdown, Novak Djokovic would likely await in the quarterfinals.

Yes, it’s a Federer-Djokovic quarter at the bottom of the bracket. At the top, a rematch of last season’s final between Rafael Nadal and Kevin Anderson is slated for the quarters.

Nadal’s quarter

Never outside of clay has Nadal made things look as easy as he did at the 2017 U.S. Open. The Spaniard took advantage of a depleted draw and bulldozed everything in his path en route to his third triumph at Flushing Meadows and 17th slam title overall. It may not be so simple this time around; not with a mostly full field and plenty of top players in fine form right now. That being said, Nadal’s path is a favorable one and he should have little trouble at least until the quarterfinals. The world No. 1, who opens with David Ferrer, could get his first semblance of a test against Karen Khachanov in round three.

Anderson’s road to a potential rematch is considerably tougher. The reigning U.S. Open and Wimbledon runner-up gets things started against Ryan Harrison, would then run into either Jeremy Chardy or 2017 U.S. Open quarterfinalist Andrey Rublev, and could face Denis Shapovalov in the last 32. Week two may begin with a relative break for Anderson, as seeds Dominic Thiem and Roberto Bautista Agut do not look like threats based on recent physical problems.

Best first-round matchup — Mischa Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz

Fritz is 0-3 lifetime at the ATP level against the Zverev brothers. Fortunately for the 20-year-old American, he is going up against the older one (0-1 with a loss at the 2016 Basel event) instead of the younger one (0-2). Fritz at least managed to beat this Zverev to successfully qualify for the Australian Open main draw in 2016. The 31-year-old German is just 19-23 this season, so it’s hard to see him making any kind of easy work with Fritz in this one. It should be a fun early-round showdown on some kind of relatively small outer court.

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Best potential second-round matchup – (9) Dominic Thiem vs. Steve Johnson
Best potential third-round matchup – (28) Denis Shapovalov vs. (5) Kevin Anderson

Possible surprises – At least two of the fourth-round spots in this quarter and arguably three are up for grabs. In the Thiem-Bautista Agut section, Newport champion and current Winston-Salem semifinalist Steve Johnson may be able to take advantage. The Zverev-Fritz winner could also do some serious damage. The Jack Sock-Kyle Edmund pod is even more wide open, as Sock has been a disaster this season and Edmund—who got blown out by Johnson 6-1, 6-2 in Winston-Salem—has also cooled off. Guido Pella and Nikoloz Basilashvili are in line to benefit.

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Del Potro’s quarter

The story here, of course, is the first-rounder between Dimitrov and Wawrinka. But the winner won’t have time to celebrate, because things will only get tougher. Wimbledon quarterfinalist Milos Raonic likely awaits in the third round, although he may have a tough opener on his hands in the form of Jared Donaldson. John Isner, who finally delivered a Grand Slam breakthrough at Wimbledon (semifinals), is a potential fourth-round foe for either Dimitrov, Wawrinka, or Raonic.

Murray may not be close to 100 percent in his comeback from hip surgery, but his U.S. Open campaign should at least be able to get off the ground because James Duckworth in the first round is a great draw. With one match under his belt, things could get fun for Murray—or, perhaps more accurately, for the fans. The former world No. 1 would then clash with either Fernando Verdasco or Feliciano Lopez prior to a possible date with Del Potro. Also in this section is Toronto runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas, who could face Daniil Medvedev in the last 64 and Borna Coric in round three.

Best first-round matchup — Stan Wawrinka vs. (8) Grigor Dimitrov

This isn’t your average Grand Slam first-round matchup—even though it is now happening in two consecutive majors. Yes, Dimitrov and Wawrinka went head-to-head right away at Wimbledon and they have to do the same in New York. The Swiss’ comeback from injury was not going well when he arrived at the All-England Club, but he recovered from a slow start to upset Dimitrov 1-6, 7-6(3), 7-6(5), 6-4. Wawrinka has since reached the Toronto third around and the Cincinnati quarterfinals. As for the Bulgarian, he advanced to the Toronto quarters and lost to Djokovic 6-4 in the third set in Cincinnati. Get your popcorn ready.

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Best potential second-round matchup – Daniil Medvedev vs. (15) Stefanos Tsitsipas
Best potential third-round matchup – (3) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Andy Murray

Possible surprises — Watch out for a couple of southpaws near Isner in the draw. The 6’10’’ American has never liked playing lefties and he is going up against one right away in former Stanford standout Bradley Klahn. Cameron Norrie—also a former NCAA star (TCU) and also in stellar form—is on course to meet Isner in the third round. Either underdog (but more likely Norrie) could make a run to the second week. Meanwhile, if Tsitsipas slows down at the end of a long summer it could be Medvedev making his way to the fourth round.

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Zverev’s quarter

Zverev got a favorable draw last year in New York (there was no other top-eight seed in his entire quarter because of Murray’s late withdrawal) and muffed it up with a second-round loss to Coric. The fourth-ranked German has an even easier path this time around, at least through what should be a cakewalk of a first week. Things could get tricky starting in the fourth round with potential opponent Kei Nishikori, but Nishikori’s health is always a question mark.

Overall, this is a thoroughly underwhelming section in which it is hard to see anyone having a real chance to prevent anything other than a quarterfinal between Marin Cilic and either Zverev or Nishikori. David Goffin and Diego Schwartzman may have something to say about that, but Goffin retired from a Cincinnati semifinal against Federer with a back injury and Schwartzman is not playing as well as he was when he reached the U.S. Open quarterfinals last summer following an upset of Cilic.

Best first-round matchup — (22) Marco Cecchinato vs. Julien Benneteau

This certainly isn’t going to produce the best tennis in the first round. In fact, it may showcase some of the worst. But what the heck? There isn’t much else to offer in this section, and Cecchinato vs. Benneteau is at least interesting in a way. After all, it is shocking that one of these two guys will be in the second round. Cecchinato, a French Open semifinalist, has never won a single ATP-level match on hard courts in his entire career. Benneteau has played only one match since Wimbledon (lost it in straight sets to Matteo Berrettini in Winston-Salem). At least this one should be competitive!

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Best potential second-round matchup – Alex de Minaur vs. Frances Tiafoe
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Diego Schwartzman vs. (21) Kei Nishikori

Possible surprises — Unless Goffin or Gael Monfils is suddenly and unexpectedly 100 percent, this is going to be nothing other than a Cilic vs. Zverev/Nishikori quarterfinal. The “sursprise” will likely come in the Goffin-Cecchinato section, where Robin Haase is the most talented of the unseeded contingent. Haase is wildly inconsistent but also plenty talented, so he could make a run to the second week as long as he scrapes past Mackenzie McDonald in what could be a difficult first-rounder.

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Federer’s quarter

The tennis world is already marking Federer vs. Djokovic on the calendar for quarterfinal action on Wednesday night, Sept. 5. And why not? There is only one player (Kyrgios) who has a realistic shot at derailing it and that player can barely get through even one best-of-three match without breaking down physically (and mentally). Otherwise, Federer’s path to the quarters includes nothing more than Yoshihito Nishioka, Benoit Paire, and either Fabio Fognini or Hyeon Chung. Djokovic’s road begins with Marton Fucsovics and may also feature Richard Gasquet and either Pablo Carreno Busta or Lucas Pouille. An upset simply isn’t happening.

This has to be considered the toughest quarter just because of Federer and Djokovic, but other than those two and Kyrgios it is stunningly soft. Chung and Gasquet appear to be less than 100 percent, this is not the same Pouille that stunned Nadal at the 2016 U.S. Open, and the unseeded group is nothing to write home about (Marcos Baghdatis, John Millman, Leonardo Mayer, etc. etc. etc.).

Best first-round matchup — Marcos Baghdatis vs. Mikhail Youzhny

Not unlike Cecchinato vs. Benneteau, the videotape of this one is not exactly going to be sent to the International Tennis Hall of Fame. In fact, both veterans may offer exorbitant riches to have it burned. But it should be a fun one—with occasionally awesome shot-making—and it is also Youzhny’s final Grand Slam match (unless he actually wins). The 36-year-old, who has slumped outside the top 100, recently announced that he will retire this fall at a home tournament in Russia. Baghdatis, ranked 92^nd, isn’t good enough right now to blow Youzhny off the court.

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Best potential second-round matchup – Joao Sousa vs. (12) Pablo Carreno Busta
Best potential third-round matchup – (30) Nick Kyrgios vs. (2) Roger Federer

Possible surprises — Federer vs. Kyrgios is one of the most entertaining matchups in tennis, but just watch it turn out to be Federer vs. Radu Albot, Federer vs. Yuki Bhambri, or Federer vs. Pierre-Hugues Herbert. The Aussie’s current physical state is such that the door is wide open. As for Djokovic’s half of this section, don’t be shocked if he faces unseeded opponents the entire way to the quarters. That may include Leonardo Mayer in the third round and either Baghdatis or Joao Sousa in the last 16.

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