French Open R4 previews and predictions: Thiem vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Verdasco

A blockbuster battle between Dominic Thiem and Kei Nishikori is part of the Sunday schedule at Roland Garros. Novak Djokovic, who is showing signs of his former self, is also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals as he faces Fernando Verdasco.

(7) Dominic Thiem vs. (19) Kei Nishikori

Thiem and Nishikori will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers and for the first time in more than two years when they clash in round four of the French Open on Sunday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Nishikori’s way; 7-6(4), 7-5 on the grass courts of Halle in 2015 and 6-3, 7-5 at the 2016 Rome Masters. Fast forward 25 months, though, and Thiem is now a two-time Roland Garros semifinalist who has emerged as arguably the second-best clay-courter behind Rafael Nadal. The eighth-ranked Austrian has not been quite that good this spring, but he still boasts a 32-8 record in 2018 with a pair of titles in Buenos Aires and Lyon (both on clay) plus a runner-up performance in Madrid. So far this fortnight, Thiem has taken care of Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Matteo Berrettini without too much trouble.

Nishikori needed five sets to escape Benoit Paire during second-round action, but he otherwise cruised at the expense of Maxime Janvier and Gilles Simon. The world No. 21 reached the Monte-Carlo final before getting some bad draws and losing to Novak Djokovic in both Madrid and Rome while also bowing out right away in Barcelona at the hands of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Nishikori has displayed flashes of top-10 tennis during his comeback from a wrist injury, but inconsistency remains a concern. In what is likely to a competitive contest with plenty of furious baseline exchanges, Thiem is the more reliable of the two when it comes to surviving from physical standpoint.

Pick: Thiem in 4

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(20) Novak Djokovic vs. (30) Fernando Verdasco

Nishikori’s comeback has been more successful over a longer period of time, but Djokovic’s return to the tour is picking up sudden steam to the extent that he seems like more of a title contender than Japan’s top player. The Serb’s two head-to-head defeats of Nishikori were part of a stretch that saw him reach the semis of the Rome Masters before falling to Nadal. Building on what is his first semblance of momentum since last spring, Djokovic punched his ticket to the Roland Garros last 16 by beating Rogerio Dutra Silva, Jaume Munar, and Roberto Bautista Agut. The two Spaniards threw plenty at the world No. 22, but he still had enough to defeat Munar in straight sets before battling past Bautista Agut 6-4, 6-7(6), 7-6(4), 6-2 on Friday.

Up next for Djokovic on Sunday is a 15th career showdown against Verdasco, who trails the head-to-head series 10-4. They have not squared off on clay–a surface on which Verdasco has won three of five previous meetings–since 2010, when a red-hot Verdasco prevailed in the Monte-Carlo semifinals and the Rome quarters. The 35th-ranked Spaniard achieved no such success at those clay-court tournaments this time around, but a return to Roland Garros appears to be just what the doctor ordered. He has advanced out of the first round in 13 consecutive appearances and has now reached the fourth round on an impressive eight occasions. Never, though, has Verdasco made it all the way to the quarterfinals. With a reinvigorated Djokovic–who is 5-0 in their last five matchups dating back to 2013–on the other side of the net, the fourth-round hump may once again be too big for Verdasco.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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67 Comments on French Open R4 previews and predictions: Thiem vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Verdasco

  1. Verdasco is the superior clay-courter but Djokovic will out defend and out grind him. Add a little bit of gamesmanship to upset Verdasco’s rhythmn and Djokovic should get the usual result.

    Djokovic in 4.

    Nishikori’s two-handed backhand will take care of Thiem’s single-hander like it has in their previous 2 matches. Plus Nishikori has power and Theim tends to do better when he has time on the ball. Best bet of the tournament.

    Nishikori in 4.

  2. Thiem in five, Djoko in four.

    Nishi’s game matches up well against Thiem , taking the ball early but over five sets, too tough for him . Hope I’m wrong.

  3. “The Serb’s two head-to-head defeats of Nishikori were part of a stretch that saw him finish runner-up to Nadal at the Madrid Masters.”

    Didn’t they play the Rome semis?

  4. After watching Thiem getting through the draw despite playing so much lately, I think he’s the one who would emerge as the SFinalist of that quarter. I had Kei initially but in BO5, I think fitness is a concern for him more than Thiem (Thiem surprised me with his fitness, and he’s also starting to play better and better compared to Rome and Lyon).

    Sasha I think after two five setters and 3+hours each may feel the strain. If Khachanov makes it another five setter, then Sasha will have problem even if he beats Khachanov. At Madrid the surface was quicker and he’s physically fresher so he beat Thiem easily. Here at RG, the surface is slower and it’s a BO5 so Thiem will have his time to build his momentum in the match and slower surface is better for Thiem’s game vs Sasha’s, so should they get to meet in the QF I feel Thiem will win that one.

    • Im in Paris now and have tickets for that 1/4 final match. Let’s hope they both make it through but I have feeling Nishikori will take care of business today.

  5. Poor Kei. John Inverdale says his match was scheduled to allow the maximum number of Japanese to be able to watch it and that the Japanese broadcasting set-up at RG is quite elaborate. They even keep their own scores. Would love to see the look on their faces now.

  6. Verdasco is playing horrible tennis, cant even win two points in a row; he’s 40-0 up but still can lose the game. Djoko isnt playing top level tennis, he’s basically grinding and retrieving making Verdasco hits many balls and makes all the errors.

    Verdasco is truly one dimensional, just hits hard and nothing else!

  7. I wonder how badly that Dimi guy must have played, to lose to this one dimensional Verdasco in straight sets!

    How come the top ten players these days can be so bad, keep losing early in tournaments; gone were those days when we had the top eight guys holding most of the QF positions in practically all events, the likes of Ferrer, Berdych, Tsonga, Delpo when hes not injured, and the big four.

    • Dimi would have lost to Donaldson if he hadn’t cramped up at the end. He was outplaying Dimi. I can believe Dimi lost to Verdasco because he was not playing well. I never expected him to go far here.

      But Verdasco can’t keep it up these days. He would have to play better to beat Novak than Dimi.

  8. Djoko grinding this Verdasco to dust! Hes just returning every ball and Verdasco will oblige by making all the error, how many times Verdasco’s service games go to deuces and then he loses the gsme!

    Verdasco cursing and swearing, drop shots also cant work against the slipping and sliding Djoko, ha ha!!

  9. I’m just following the scores,but it seems like a routine win for Djoko after a tough start. Goffin exit is on the cards,even if he turns around the match I don’t belive he’s taking out Djoko. Djoko vs Thiem SF looking more and more likely.

    • Nando moaning and groaning like an old walrus!
      Nole is coming back into form..He is capable of beating both thiem and zverev…

      • If only nando could focuse on his game instead of shouting bad words to his box,we could have a match.
        Djoko’s finding his groove,I’m picking him to make the final.

          • He’s not at that level,IMO. Solid,but far from his best. Can put up a challenge for Rafa but I believe the King of Clay will emerge should they met there.

          • I had this same feeling about Fed in AO 17 from start of tournament and he did. He too was not expected buthe worked his way up, got some luck of draw like Murray getting taken out and he beat Rafa in final..

            Same feeling I ma getting here this time.

          • stop commenting on my level of fandom..i am talking about the sneaky feeling i am getting, its not my wish..

          • Sanju, you are definitely the most apprehensive Rafa fan who posts regularly here. If it’s any comfort, I don’t share your anxiety about his chances; he’s still the clear favourite over everyone, including Novak if they should both make the final.

            However, I have to pick a bone with you about Federer’s draw at AO 2017. You focused on Murray, but Fed had an incredibly tough draw, culminating with Nadal. I don’t think it’s a good idea to focus on draws in general, but Fed’s in that tournament was definitely a tough one.

  10. Better that the Italian guy (what’s his name?) goes through to meet Djoko when Goffin is half dead with shoulder issue now. I think that Italian may provide some interesting tennis against Djoko though not winning. At least he’s not as one dimensional as Verdasco.

  11. Lol about Dimi — I have not idea. Didn’t see it.

    Yeah these guys makes for very difficult bracket picking/ Rafa is the only constant.

    Anyone watching Goffin match? I only have score for that one and the score makes me feel like Goffin isn’t going to make it. Lost the first set to Cecchinato.

    Verdasco vs Nole lol – much frustration from both at themselves. Novak complaining the clay is too slippery. And he needs to stop trying to drop shot and smash anything. He’s not playing well – sloppy/tired shots. Verdasco going to break back in the 2nd set. Uh boy – too many balls into the net from Nole.
    I don’t care who wins this. Nando can’t hold serve and Nole gets the break back.

    Thank goodness for Radio Roland Garros, at least. Phew, I hear Goffin got the 2ns set.

        • Petra lost to Anett Kontaveit, sadly. Then out of shape Kontaveit lost promptly to in-form Sloane Stephens.

          Anett apparently gave everything to beat our Petra 🙁

          Hello darling amy – nice to read you here these days.

          Not too impressed with Novak today…but sometimes seems okay.

          Right now I’ve no way to watch Goffin but I hear he’s injured after the Monfils match?

          • I don’t know about goffin rc…sorry….
            Don’t understand how Petra lost to kontaveit
            when she was slaughtered by sloane!😢😢
            I was secretly hoping Petra could win but if not her then simona!!
            Lovely to see you ma cherie!!😀

          • I’m sure that Kontaveit must have given her all to beat Petra because Kontaveit was horrible/ had nothing vs Sloane.

            Strange though Anett beat Petra in 2 sets — both Tie breaks. I’d have to watch the replay. Yes, anyway very sad for me. Especially seeing how terribly easily Anett lost to Sloane. Puzzling.

            Hope Petra isn’t injured. We want her strong for Wimbles!!

      • I will be here for rafa’s match tomorrow nny so we can Vamos together!!!
        I don’t like all the big servers collecting on his side of the draw..😠

        • Amy,

          Good to know you will be here. I have to try and get up early to see his match. I believe he is second on Chatrier.

          The good news is that Rafa won’t have to play them all. I don’t know if Anderson will get by Schwartzman. I don’t see Isner getting to the semis. If Rafa raises his level of play as he moves towards the quarterfinals, then I won’t be too worried.

          • Rafa and…???

            I picked Rafa vs Zverev final but I don’t think so unless Sascha has some miracle recovery procedure.

            Maybe Thiem or Novak. Novak will have it easy next match by playing Goffin or Cecchinato, I think. Finally TC showing some Goffin and yeah he’s not serving well — looks like an elbow issue. # 72 Cecchinato — serving for the match. Cecchinato? barely know him.

          • Kasatkina is a lovable young Russian 21 years old – about the same age as Ostapenko. Daria is more of a shot maker, more patient than Ostapenko and inclined to bother with point construction. She admires Rafa Nadal. She likes to jump into her backhand shots. She has some power but nothing like Ostapenko and her isn’t spectacular but i’t solid. She’s fast, 5’7″, and covers the court well. I didn’t pick her deep here because I don’t think of her as a FO clay court player even though her one WTA title is on clay in Charleston. Clearly I really like her and would not mind her beating Woz here. but didn’t pick Kasatkina deep.

            Cheering for Daria!

          • Thanks rc!!
            Kasatkina is great to watch and I really like her. She is actually outhitting woz but woz has too much experience for her i fear…
            She is definitely one for the future!!!
            She has more variety subtlety and guile than ostapenko no?

          • Yes far more thoughtful, subtle and more guile than most. And I also appreciate is watching a rare match without the terrible grunts that nearly everyone, even dear Simona like to use at every chance they get. Woz and Daria are just tennis, no grunting.

            What I was trying to say above is that Daria doesn’t have much of a serve yet. She gets the ball in play. Hope someone helps her get a serve weapon 😀

  12. Not so much of Djoko playing well but it’s Verdasco playing horrible. Verdasco is just hitting the ball as hard as possible, his service games practically get to deuces all the time, so you can imagine how hard he has to fight to win points even in his own service games! And, it’s not like Djoko is playing lights out tennis, both playing moonball tennis and hoping the other would mishit into the net! TBH, it’s poor quality tennis imo. I actually laugh very hard watching both of them play this way and Verdasco most of the time is the one who makes the errors.

  13. One hour and forty seven mins for two sets of tennis, I think this is a long match, long time wise but not sets wise I mean. Djoko will probably win in straight sets.

  14. Kasatkina takes the first set! The tennis channel commies are saying that her serve speeds are too slow. She hit a 65 mph serve and Woz over hit the return. Then Woz muffed it on set point and that was it.

    I checked Kasatkina’s ranking and she is #14. So she is just outside the top ten. Somehow she won even with serving with such slow speeds.

    Mary Carrillo called her serves “ducks”.

    • Daria Kasatkina is a clever and likable personality, imo. NNY

      She doesn’t really have a first serve = both her serves are about the same lol

      Yes there are plenty of examples of players making it at least into the top 20 without a serve. Sara Errani, a favorite player but painful to watch struggle with her serve. Daria Kasatkina I don’t know why she can’t get a faster serve tho. Even short little Dominika Cibulkova has a good serve.

      • rc,

        I am impressed with Kasatkina. I like her game. The serve needs some serious work, but she has the groundstrokes. It was getting beyond annoying to listen to stupid Mary Carrillo going on and on about her serving. Meanwhile she won the first set.

        They had to stop the match due to lack of light, but I really enjoyed what I saw.

    • Oh,I love Daria’s game,she’s a great all rounder player! Her serve is a weakness,but she has so much talent! I love her jumping backhands and the versatile dropshots,a joy to watch!
      If she’s able to improve her serve,she will be a steady top 10 player.
      Plus,she’s a huge Rafa fan,which make me like her even more 🙂

  15. Looking at the draw at this stage of the tournament, I think Thiem has the toughest draw – R2 Tsitsipas, R4 Kei, QF Sasha SF most likely Djoko, Final most likely Rafa. It’s certainly not an easy road for him.

    Rafa will have Anderson/Diego as QF opponent, followed by one of Cilic/Foggy/Delpo/Isner in the SF, not easy! One of Djoko/Thiem/Sasha in the final, certainly not easy as well.

    Sasha has Thiem/Djoko/Rafa most likely should he gets to the final, may or may not be tougher than Rafa’s. The Cilic quarter will get tough from R4 onwards but the biggest obstacle to the final of course will be Rafa.

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