Karen Khachanov will be trying to ride his serve-forehand combination to a Wimbledon upset of Rafael Nadal on Friday. Benoit Paire and Jerzy Janowicz are also aiming for a place in the second week.
(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (30) Karen Khachanov
Nadal and Khachanov will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they collide in the Wimbledon third round on Friday. A lot of “firsts” have been coming for Khachanov of late, who is really starting to announce himself as a force to be reckoned with on the ATP Tour. The 21-year-old Russian is into the top 40 for the first time (broke in last month, currently at a career-high 34th), reached the French Open fourth round in his first main-draw appearance at that slam, and now finds himself in the last 32 of his first main-draw showing at the All-England Club. Khachanov fought hard to hold off Andrey Kuznetsov in five sets and Thiago Monteiro in four earlier in the week.
It’s safe to say the competition level ratchets up dramatically in the form of Nadal, who is 45-6 this season with four titles–including his 10th French Open triumph. The second-ranked Spaniard did not play any grass-court warmup events, but it’s also safe to say he knew what he was doing while making that schedule decision. Showing no grass-court rust, Nadal hammered John Millman 6-1, 6-3, 6-2 on Monday before beating Donald Young 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 in round two. Khachanov is more of the prototypical big hitter who can trouble the 15-time major champion on this surface, but grass may be his least favorite court right now because he has less time to set up for his forehand and is frequently forced to hit it out of his strike zone. This is an intriguing matchup on paper, but in reality it should be one-way traffic.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11 games or fewer
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Benoit Paire vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Speaking of intriguing matchups, Paire vs. Janowicz pits two of the game’s most colorful characters against each other–and that is not where the similarities end. When healthy, they unofficially lead the tour in drop-shots attempted. They also possess some of the most ferocious weapons in the game, highlighted by Paire’s backhand and Janowicz’s serve and forehand.
Unfortunately for Janowicz and for tennis, he basically disappeared from the main tour after reaching the Wimbledon semifinals in 2013 and climbing to No. 14 in the world. The 6’8” Pole is finally making his way back from various problems and will be well inside the top 100 if he wins on Friday (currently 141st). So far this fortnight he has picked up four-set victories over Denis Shapovalov and 2016 quarterfinalist Lucas Pouille. Paire punched his ticket to the last 32 by beating Rogerio Dutra Silva in four and fellow Frenchman Pierre-Hugues Herbert in straights. These two veterans recently faced each other in last month’s Stuttgart quarterfinals, with Paire prevailing 6-1, 7-6(4) for his first ATP-level win over Janowicz compared to two losses. The world No. 46 is a decent 8-6 lifetime at this event, but he has only one victory over an opponent ranked better than 52nd in the world. On this surface, a confident Janowicz is arguably a top-10 talent. He just avenged a recent grass-court loss to Shapovalov and may do the same against Paire.
Pick: Janowicz in 4
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Nadal in 3 and he will go on to win the title
Ole!
Del potro losing straight sets to Ernest is proof that everyone here really doesn’t know Jack sometimes. Every single person here had del potro winning straight sets and instead he is about to lose straight sets. Of course ya will get right most of the time choose the huge favorites but how you explain this crazy -800 potro losing first 2 sets to a scrub.
I’ve been a fan of Gulbis’ tennis longer than I have Delpo’s. I picked Delpo in my bracket to play and lose to Novak. I don’t put money on matches anymore —I just sit back watch and appreciate the tennis. Anything can happen om tennis == one of the reasons I love the game. If I had money on Delpo I would be mad as a crackhead hatter!
Yay Gulbis! Novak get ready please…
Im mad as crackhead hatter. Im actually tilted and put big money on berdych and im scared
Ratcliff, I’m a huge Gulbis fan – unfortunately, because it’s probably one of the most frustrating rennis fandoms. But I don’t buy the prevailing narrative of the pampered little rich boy who is unwilling to live up to his talents. That might have been his protective behavior when he was still very young. But for many years nbow he has been dogged by physical problems, and he’s also not a clutch player. He has a penchant to get nervous in tight matches and loses many which he should’ve won. I don’t think that’s the attitude of someone who doesn’t care but of someone who can’t deal with pressure very well. While I normally root for Delpo because of his unfortunate history of one physical problem after another – doesn’t seem fair somehow – I’m delighted that Gulbis won, although I don’t expect him do go very far. Even a 100% fit Delpo isn’t a natural grass player, even if he had some compelling matches here in the past. Gulbis’ style on the other hand is is very suitable for grass. So, I’m not totally surprised by the result. Why is he even in the main draw btw? His ranking is abysmally low these days. Did he qualify or did he get a wild card?
Gulbis has a protected rating of 99, I believe.
Rafa in three losing more than 12 games and Janowicz in 5
I’m sticking to my original assertion that Rafa is going deep this year… When I said this before the tournament started, I wasn’t sure what exactly I meant by “going deep”, but now I have a better idea since seeing him on grass a couple times. I now predict that he will at least make the final. I think he looks great out there. When Rafa looks this confident, I don’t care what the surface is, he is going to be very hard to beat in a best-of-5 set match!
I also recognize that Khachanov has potential to be a tough match-up for anyone on grass. That being said, I think that the potential for Rafa to blow him off the court is higher than the potential for other outcomes, so I expect Rafa to get through this one in straights, maybe four sets if he takes a little walkabout. Maybe I would be a little more concerned for Rafa if this were best-of-3, but I believe it takes more than Karen Khachanov to take down Rafa in this form at a slam. I sure hope I’m right, though, because I would love to see Rafa return to the Wimbledon final!
Nadal in 4. Ive got a feeling he’ll drop a set here. Kahachanov made the semis of Halle and went down 64 76 to Fed. He’s young and an improver and probably learned a lot from his no show against Murray at RG.
Paire v Janowicz is a bit of a lottery because Paire’s style and demeanor can trouble certain players. However, I’ll give Janowicz the benefit of the doubt based in his best record here and ability to raise his game. Pouille is quite a strong form line as well.
Janowicz in 5.
Rafa in 3 — a good learning experience for Kachanov. if he isn’t too tired at this pont.
Jerzy in 5. He’ll fight like crazy to the bitter end. Maybe in 4, if Benoit gives up. Of course this match could also go the other way around. Enjoy it; don’t bet on this match!
Pair is going to be up 2 sets and a break then go into zombie mode and lose the final three sets 6:7, 6:2, 6:0
Everything in my gut was telling me to bet against raonic but it’s hard when you see raonic as a -1500 favorite. Just youzhny winning one set was +280
I think Rafa will be ready for Khachanov. He never takes any opponent for granted. I don’t see Khachanov hanging with Rafa in a Bof5 set match.
Rafa in 3 sets unless he goes walkabout.
JJ/Paire is pretty unpredictable. Maybe JJ is getting back to decent form again.
I think it could go either way, but Paire is notoriously inconsistent and JJ can be temperamental. I think JJ has the edge and should win in 4 sets.
Couldn’t agree with you more about Rafa-Khachanov, NNY. In my opinion, facing a Rafa playing this confidently and aggressively, Karen might as well bring his luggage to the match. 🙂
As Hawkeye would say….
#NID!
am pretty bummed about delpo who is one of my fave players and gulbis certainly isn’t.
if gulbis is playing well again he could give nole a scare imo…nole is still vulnerable and he’s got rattled by gulbis before…
Wimbledon 3 minutes ago:
FRIDAY’S ORDER OF PLAY (Centre Court, from 13:00 BST):
Azarenka v Watson
Nadal v Khachanov
Murray v Fognini
I am amazed Youzhny was able to take a set of Raonic because Youzhny has been so laid back recently like he is semi retired.
Had set point in the 2nd and was a break up in the 4th and that’s why Raonic won’t get a slam ever
Ernest whoops djoker in 4 sets tomorrow
Strangely, even with his good serve, Khachanov has faced 18 break points in his last match against Monteiro. With that kind of stat he will struggle to win games against Rafa. I dont think this match will be competitive at all. Besides, he may be a little tired after playing two very long matches.
Crazy upset day. First del potro, then isner, then pliskova, now Jack sock. All big favorites.
Yeah, who is Sebastian Ofner?
Sock is out? To a qualifier?
Unreal!
I was also surprised to see Isner lose.
well, to a “qualifier” isnt necessarily unreal
to OFNER for sure is unreal
I never heard of Ofner!
Sebastian Ofner is an Austrian player. Interestingly the name of Thomas Muster’s wife is Caroline Ofner. No idea if there’s a connection or if Ofner is just a common Austrian surname. The Austrians are very excited to have – besides Thiem – another player in the third round. But while Thiem’s run might continue I highly doubt that Ofner will go much further…
There must be a mistake in the daily picks section. Someone listed nishkori to lose 2nd day in a row
Rafa dismantles the Russian….Paire in an entertaining 4.
Rafa will win Wimbledon this year.
Hear Hear fg
long way to go yet though
you will see it becoming reality in another weekend.
Be calm, be focused, be confident, be courageous, be strong, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEH60erXcAATsvJ.jpg
Rafa up next if Azarenka can close this out.
NNY, since you are a long time resident here: whatever happened to Hawkeye and Mary? Did they move on to greener pastures? Or have they been moved? 😉
Littlefoot,
The last time Hawkeye posted he said that he was sorry for offending anyone. There were some words exchanged and he then said he would take some time to kind of rethink where he’s at. I am paraphrasing here.
I don’t know about Mary. We have had our issues in the past. But she has come and gone from time to time. But with Hawkeye, he’s always been a regular. They have posted on tennis-x under various user names.
Hawkeye used to joke every time Sean Randall would kick him off the site. They may be over there. There were some misunderstandings between Hawkeye and a few of us. But he would not usually stop posting.
That’s about as much info as I can give you.
Thanks, NNY. Yes, I know there were some issues between posters, and some of them go off once in a while. I normally come here for the slams in order to enjoy everybody’s expertise. But you are right: Hawkeye was a regular all the time. Therefore I started to notice his absence after a couple of days.
Ok, I hope everybody is fine – let’s enjoy the match 🙂
What. Is. Going. On? I thought this guy was a big server, Rafa’s broken him twice already in this set……….
Breadstick!
Rafa pretty much owned Khachanov in that first set. He had a chance to get the early break, but Khachanov fought and held.
Espn is now showing a women’s match, so I am watching Rafa on the espn app.
I should clarify that Rafa had the chance for the early break in the second set.
A 22 minute set………
Let that sink in……….
Rafa gets the break in the second set. Khachanov struggling in every service game.
That’s the first easy hold for Khachanov in this set.
Rafa still up a break 3-2.
Rafa stays in control. 4-2
walk in the park for Rafa
Khachanov with a golden game. The way Nadal is playing, that might be his only hope.
Deuce for Rafa. Tight service game.
As Hawkeye would say…
#NID!
Whoops! Didn’t realize it had already posted above…
Khachanov takes his hand off the racquet on the forehand which is a major technical flaw IMO. He’s no Marat Safin or Yevgeny Kafelnikov. Top 10-20 at best.
Khachanov is trying to hang in there and avoid another early break, which would mean the match at this point. He’s fighting in every service game.
Khachanov seems to be trying to keep it close in the third set. Trying to make something happen.
Rafa wasting so many BP chances! Khachanov no doubt serves very big serves to save them but still, there are chances but Rafa couldn’t take them. Khachanov is now left with his big serves to help him stay with Rafa in this third set, Rafa has to take his chances to break serve to get a straight forward win.
why diddn’t rafa challenge that tight call when karen was serving at 2-2?? the ball was in and he would have broken and been up 4-2..
How long did Nadal take on that break point to serve, 60 seconds?
Nah, don’t exaggerate, Layani was watching the time.
Rafa had a brain freeze, he should use his CC BH passing shot instead of playing a low percentage DTL BH when Khachanov was waiting there. What a waste of a point.
Rafa should have got a warning there. I had almost fallen asleep waiting for Rafa to serve. When I woke up Rafa still didn’t serve. Atrocious.
Oh please give me a break! The chair umpire has the responsibility to watch the time.
Almost fell asleep? Really!
Yeah…really. LoL☺
Strange, when the umpire serves Rafa a warning you people always complain.
Now, when he should have received a warning you say the chair umpire has the responsibility to watch the time.
Mark didn’t get it right; we didn’t complain about umpire giving Rafa TV warning, its WHEN he gave it that’s the problem. Why chose a time when Rafa was facing BP?
The third set is so tight and all you want to talk about is time between points? Really?
He’s not interested in the match!
You are talking as if you know about me more than I do about myself. Ha ha ha
Hahaha
This may go to a TB.
Tight, tight………
This guy is in a good serving rhythm now.
Rafa has really wasted all those BP chances, he has to hold to get to TB now, if not he has to play another set! His intensity has dropped and Khachanov sensed that and up his own.
rafa’s really gone off the boil…
Rafa needs to hold to get to s TB.
This is very thought right now.
Very tight!
I think this is a good time for me to take a walk…………
Uh oh!
This is the first real pressure situation Rafa has been in.
TB it is.
jeez that was nerve wracking…. i need alcohol….
Rafa is really so nervous! That’s the problem when you keep losing early.
Wow! What a cc backhand!
Rafa is making us so tense! My goodness! Match point!
Game, Set, Match Nadal! Vamos!!
We got a scare! Congrats Rafa, into the fourth round now, so happy!
Yay!!! Rafa wins!
Into the fourth round!!!
Rafa just passed his first test!
Well done!
walk in the park still.
not going to lose a set until reaching final.
Bold statement right there
Once he reaches final, I’m good! And if he wins i’m better!!
Vaaamooos Rafa!!! ✌ ✌ ✌
Fist pumps!!! ? ? ?
Against Muller we can expect a similar scoreline.
Doubt it
So, since there will be no matches on Sunday, Rafa made it into the second week! Without losing a set! As far as Wimby is concerned Rafafans are happy enough for now with these small accomplishments. We will see next week if Rafa can extend his streak 🙂 Since the beginning of RG Rafa has now played 30 sets without losing one of them. Actually he played only 28 1/2 sets,since there was one early retirement of an opponent. But it is still a remarkable accomplishment on two very different surfaces.
Rafa’s level is good enough to take him to the final without loosing a set. He has improved his backhand this year, hitting it flatter and with more power and purpose. This has added more stability to his overall game.
You think he will drop no sets against Muller, Cilic, and Murray? Bro Fed is more likely to not drop a set to make the final along with a lot more likely to actually make it there. People making too much of this win over Khachanov lol. Plus he almost lost the third. Almost loses third set to Khachanov but he will for sure beat one of the most in form grass courters Muller in straights then an arguably even more in form grass courter Cilic in straights and then likely two time champion Murray in straights.
To be sure, Mark said Rafa’s level was “good enough” not that he would win in straights until the final. If it makes you happy I think Rafa will lose at least one set per match from here on out. That would be the “normal thing. Rafa blowing through RG without losing a set? Well, definitely NOT normal, even for Rafa.
Not even for Fed, lol!
littlefoot, if Rafa is clutch in his service game and holds everyone of them, and remains calm in his ROS, he really stands a chance of winning in straight sets, even against Muller and Cilic. Muller can falter; Cilic even more prone to falter. It’s really depends on how they play and how focused they are.
If Rafa loses a bit of concentration, he’ll lose serve, just like out of the blue, he served poorly to lose serve in the first set against Khachanov.
Cilic is beyond focused lately. Muller is beyond confident so I’m sure he will be focused too. I know for a fact Cilic will be locked in every match he plays rest of the tourney as he has so far. Muller isn’t always as locked in when he’s returning but Cilic has been on his toes and had laser like focus throughout this grass court season, including his first three matches here.
Benny G (AT 6:14 AM),
Cilic and Muller both lost their serve twice in R3.
You right I kinda misinterpreted as he was basically saying Rafa will for sure make it to final without dropping a set. I personally have Muller winning BUT there’s a lot of reason to back Nadal to make it to the final. He’s riding such a win streak.
Has Müller ever beaten Rafa? I think they had a few matches and Rafa won them all fairly convincingly. Correct me if I’m wrong. Why should it be different on Monday against an inform Rafa?
Muller had beaten Rafa at Wimbledon in 2005.
Thanks, Lucky. And that’s 12 years ago, when Rafa just came off his very first slam win. We will see how it goes this time. I don’t know if Rafa is able to do it in straits, but I don’t think he will lose against Müller.
Because grass.
We’ll see Benny; I watched Cilic vs Johnson, I’m not as convinced as you, that Cilic was laser sharp.
Not normal but Rafa done it three out or ten times when he won, that’s 30%, quite impressive.
On grass it’s almost impossible!
Well, but he didn’t lose the third. That’s the point. But I agree with you: it’s highly unlikely that Rafa will make it past Müller, and then maybe Cilic and Andy without dropping a set. But right now I’d say he certainly has the potential to beat the gusy who are still alive in his half.
Benny, of couse Rafa may lose a set here or there. But, that’s not my point. He is on a roll and looks like it will continue for some more matches. I am not really convinced about Muller though. He will be too tired to make it more competitive than what Khachanov did. Well, I may be wrong though. We will see.
The key is Muller’s serve bro. He will make it WAY more competitive than Khachanov. I stand corrected if he doesn’t but Muller is so confident right now. And he shouldn’t go out there feeling a lot of pressure so I’m sure he will have a good serving day. And we have seen Rafa hasn’t dealt with big servers too well in the recent past here.
Benny, it seemed to me you’re here hoping for Rafa to falter more than anything else! I really doubt Muller could trouble and best Rafa. Rafa is confident now and playing aggressive tennis.
You want to talk about Rafa not dealing well with big hitters, but first you have to look at how he played in all those circumstances! In any of those years — 2012-2015 — I hadn’t seen a confident Rafa, he was playing more a grinding brand of tennis even on grass! He wasn’t confident when playing on grass in all those years, more tentative than aggressive.
This year, though he’s nervous ( understandable cos he kept losing early at Wimbledon), he’s playing with some belief now, after rampaging through the clay season; he’s also playing a brand of more aggressive tennis, in fact a better brand of tennis imo than his 2008. His serve, return, FH, BH, volleying, overheads, slices, footwork, footspeed, all are top class and working well together.
I really like this Rafa, from the clay season onwards, he’s playing a brand of tennis that I think he should be playing since long time ago, like when he first played in 2003! I just hope he keeps this up for a long long time and let his fans and his detractors see what aggressive and offensive tennis he’s capable of playing.
I don’t want him to falter. I hate seeing Rafa lose to guys like Rosol and Darcis these past couple years at this event. But those recent performances lead me to believe he will lose before the quarters once again as he is playing one of the most in form grass courters on the tour.
Benny G (AT 6:16 AM),
Rosol & Darcis are Fedfans’ heroes. Otherwise they wouldn’t have kept mentioning them on daily basis (since they become their heroes). 😆
Nah augusta Rosol will never be my hero lol. Dude is the biggest jerk ever. His antics vs Rafa were beyond annoying and disrespectful and I’m still sad that asshole got that win over Nadal that day.
What recent performances are you talking about?
Rafa straight set everyone so far; Muller struggled vs Rosol. Muller took two plus hours to beat Bendene, and Bendene is no Rafa, so I’m not sure Muller’s recent performances here are that convincing either.
Cilic may be playing well, and he beats those he should beat, but, he’s not laser sharp either, having to go to TBs and 7-5 sets so often.
I do feel none of their (Muller’s and Cilic’s) opponents are of Rafa’s caliber, in terms of ROS, and tennis acumen. We’ll see who’s right when things unfold further along the way.
Recent Wimbledon performances. I mean how he’s done over the last five years.
3 down and into the 2nd week………
More than good enough for me.
Vamos!
Rafa into 2nd week without dropping a set is good enough. I was worried about this match.
I am worried abouf Muller. This is going to be the first big test for Rafa.
I Fed not think Khachanov had the ability to hang with Rafa. He’s got raw power, but no finesse and discipline. He tends to over hit the ball. I do think he gave a good account of himself in the third set. He really hung in there and fought off break points to stay with Rafa. He even had a set point.
I think Rafa needed to be pushed a little. A tight third set with no breaks and then Rafa almost losing the set, was a pressure situation and Rafa come up with the shots when it counted. He took control in the TB and was doing his vamos thing!
Muller is going to be tough. But Rafa is playing well and seems to be confident.
I did not think Khachanov could hang with Rafa! I don’t know how autocorrect got the word “Fed” in there!
Murray does not look even 1 bit that he is carrying a hip injury
I think we will see a big four showdown here in the semifinals. What a treat that will be!!
Last time it happened was way back in 2012 AO, if I am not wrong.
way too early for that
Rafa’s post-match interview with Sky Sports:
https://youtu.be/N-4NIuu1fvo
Rafa could not stop smiling in that interview! Happy Rafa! He knows that he’s playing well.
Thanks for posting this!
?
I love Rafa’s clear-eyed, no fluff post match analyses of his games, so on point. The match unfolded exactly as he described from his vantage point.
He has 2 days to prepare for Muller….
Vamos Rafa!
Murray is in trouble in set no 2 after winning the first pretty comfortably. Fognini will serve for the set. Murray’s level has dropped.
A. Murray’s thread:
https://tenngrand.com/2017/07/06/wimbledon-r3-previews-and-predictions-murray-vs-fognini-tsonga-vs-querrey/
David Avakian (Sports writer): “Asked Karen Khachanov to compare experiences playing Murray (Paris), Federer (Halle) and Nadal (London), the last 3 persons to beat him… :”
https://twitter.com/Davavaki/status/883400339331796998/photo/1