French Open full tournament picks

First round
Murray over Kuznetsov in 4, Klizan over Lokoli in 4
Almagro over Baghdatis in 3, Del Potro over Pella in 5
Isner over Thompson in 4, Lorenzi over Berankis in 3
Khachanov over Jarry in 3, Berdych over Struff in 3
A. Zverev over Verdasco in 4, Herbert over Donaldson in 5
Dzumhur over Kicker in 5, Cuevas over Hamou in 3
Chung over Querrey in 5, Escobedo over Istomin in 4
Chardy over Albot in 3, Nishikori over Kokkinakis in 3

Wawrinka over Kovalik in 3, Berlocq over Dolgopolov in 4
Seppi over Giraldo in 5, Tiafoe over Fognini in 4
Gasquet over De Greef in 3, Gabashvili over Estrella Burgos in 5
Monteiro over A. Muller in 3, Monfils over Brown in 4
Tsonga over Olivo in 3, Edmund over Elias in 4
Anderson over Jaziri in 4, Kohlschreiber over Kyrgios in 5
Ferrer over Young in 3, Lopez over Fratangelo in 4
Delbonis over Kravchuk in 3, Cilic over Gulbis in 3

Raonic over Darcis in 3, Dutra Silva over Youzhny in 4
Trungelliti over Halys in 5, G. Muller over Garcia-Lopez in 4
Carreno Busta over Mayer in 3, Daniel over Janowicz in 4
Evans over Robredo in 5, Dimitrov over Robert in 3
Sock over Vesely in 4, Bedene over Harrison in 4
Kukushkin over Sandgren in 5, Bautista Agut over Millman in 3
Simon over Basilashvili in 4, Troicki over Donskoy in 4
Haase over De Minaur in 4, Nadal over Paire in 3

Thiem over Tomic in 3, Bolelli over Mahut in 5
Coric over Bourgue in 4, Johnson over Sugita in 4
Karlovic over Tsitsipas in 5, Zeballos over Mannarino in 5
Stakhovsky over Lu in 5, Goffin over Mathieu in 3
Pouille over Benneteau in 4, Bellucci over Lajovic in 4
Medvedev over Bonzi in 3, Ramos-Vinolas over Copil in 4
M. Zverev over Napolitano in 3, Schwartzman over Rublev in 3
Sousa over Tipsarevic in 3, Djokovic over Granollers in 3

Second round
Klizan over Murray in 5
Del Potro over Almagro in 4
Isner over Lorenzi in 4
Berdych over Khachanov in 4
A. Zverev over Herbert in 3
Cuevas over Dzumhur in 3
Chung over Escobedo in 4
Nishikori over Chardy in 3

Wawrinka over Berlocq in 3
Seppi over Tiafoe in 5
Gasquet over Gabashvili in 3
Monfils over Monteiro in 5
Tsonga over Edmund in 4
Kohlschreiber over Anderson in 4
Ferrer over Lopez in 4
Delbonis over Cilic in 5

Raonic over Dutra Silva in 3
Trungelliti over G. Muller in 5
Carreno Busta over Daniel in 3
Dimitrov over Evans in 3
Sock over Bedene in 4
Bautista Agut over Kukushkin in 3
Simon over Troicki in 5
Nadal over Haase in 3

Thiem over Bolelli in 3
Coric over Johnson in 5
Zeballos over Karlovic in 5
Goffin over Stakhovsky in 3
Pouille over Bellucci in 4
Ramos-Vinolas over Medvedev in 3
Schwartzman over M. Zverev in 4
Djokovic over Sousa in 4

Third round
Klizan over Del Potro in 4
Berdych over Isner in 4
A. Zverev over Cuevas in 4
Nishikori over Chung in 5

Wawrinka over Seppi in 3
Gasquet over Monfils in 5
Tsonga over Kohlschreiber in 4
Delbonis over Ferrer in 4

Raonic over Trungelliti in 3
Carreno Busta over Dimitrov in 4
Sock over Bautista Agut in 4
Nadal over Simon in 3

Thiem over Coric in 3
Goffin over Zeballos in 4
Ramos-Vinolas over Pouille in 4
Djokovic over Schwartzman in 4

Fourth round
Berdych over Klizan in 4
A. Zverev over Nishikori in 4
Wawrinka over Gasquet in 4
Tsonga over Delbonis in 3

Carreno Busta over Raonic in 4
Nadal over Sock in 3
Thiem over Goffin in 4
Djokovic over Ramos-Vinolas in 4

Quarterfinals
A. Zverev over Berdych in 4
Wawrinka over Tsonga in 4

Nadal over Carreno Busta in 3
Djokovic over Thiem in 4

Semifinals
Wawrinka over A. Zverev in 5
Nadal over Djokovic in 3

Final
Nadal over Wawrinka in 4

[polldaddy poll=9752115]

297 Comments on French Open full tournament picks

  1. Zverev over wawrinka in 4 , rafa over zverev in 4 ..

    Beside , pretty much is the same , only kyrgios can make a progress ( maybe :/ )

    • Circumstances look bad for Kyrgios. Lost his grandfather a month ago, has been dealing with a hip injury, just lost to Kicker, likes hard and grass court better, and just about the worst first round draw he could’ve asked for.

  2. QF:
    Rafa over PCB in 3
    Djoko over Goffin in 5
    A Zverev over Berdych in 5
    Stan over Cilic in 4

    SF:
    Rafa over Djoko in 3
    Stan over Zverev in 5

    Final:
    Rafa over Stan in 4

  3. QF’s: Murray over AZ, Wawa over Tsonga, Rafa over Dimitrov, Djokovic over Thiem

    SF’s: Wawa over Murray, Rafa over Thiem.

    F: Rafa over Andy

      • vr,

        I’d be interested to see your picks. Lucky has hers up. I agree with most of it, except I am not sure about Zverev. I am not sure he’s there yet. PCB could get through to meet Rafa in the quarters, but I picked Raonic to get to the quarters. He hasn’t looked that great, so not sure about that one. Goffin could beat Theim to meet Novak in the semis.

        I am not sure how far Berdy will get. I believe that I picked Rafa and Stan in the final for my bracket. I was going to revisit my picks and maybe make a change or two, but am not sure.

        Initially I wasn’t that sure about Novak gettIng to the semis because I do not believe he’s completely back yet.

  4. QFs:
    I don’t really believe in Berdych here, also I don’t think crazy Klizan is gonna go to the fourth round. I’d say that in the first quarter Alexander Zverev beats Isner/Del Potro

    Then I have Cilic beating Gasquet/Wawrinka, I can imagine Wawrinka losing to Fognini or Gasquet here and I actually really believe in Cilic making the semis here

    Nadal over Raonic
    Djokovic over Thiem

    SFs:
    Zverev over Cilic
    Nadal over Djokovic

    and finally Nadal over Zverev

  5. Everyone has a “subpar” “struggling” Nole beating everybody but Rafa and having a deep run despite earlier bravado.

    Rafa will not beat Nole in three. Nor vice versa. Will be at least four sets either way. The winner of the bottom half semi will win RG.

    The rest is just popcorn filler and noise.

    La decima is on Rafa’s racquet but it won’t be easy vs Nole.

    #NoleIsBack

  6. Differences from Ricky:

    1st rnd:
    GGL over Muller
    Robredo over Evans
    Fognini over Tiafoe
    Estrella “Dam” Burgos over Gabba Gabba
    Giraldo over Seppi
    Kyrgios over Kohls

    2nd rnd:
    Kyrgios over Anderson
    Murray over Klizan

    3rd rnd:
    RBA over Sock
    Kyrgios over Delpo

    SF (aka Final)
    Rafa over Nole in 5

    #NolesBack
    #RafaIsBacker

      • Thanks Benny!

        CORRECTION:

        Differences from Ricky:

        1st rnd:
        GGL over Muller
        Robredo over Evans
        Fognini over Tiafoe
        Estrella “Dam” Burgos over Gabba Gabba
        Giraldo over Seppi
        Kyrgios over Kohls

        2nd rnd:
        Kyrgios over Anderson
        Murray over Klizan

        3rd rnd:
        RBA over Sock
        Tsonga over Kyrgios
        Murray over Delpo

        4th Rnd:
        Berdych over Murray

        SF (aka Final)
        Rafa over Nole in 5

  7. QF:
    Rafa over Dimitrov in 3
    Djokovic over Thiem in 4
    Tsonga over Wawrinka in 4
    Nishikori over Murray in 4

    SF:
    Rafa over Djokovic in 3
    Tsonga over Nishikori in 4

    Final:
    Rafa over Tsonga in 3

    Differences for me are:
    1) Im playing down the “lack of form” Nishikori has and he almost always shows up deftly in the Slams.
    2) Tsonga has played very well this year and his form suffered only slightly because of his fatherhood. If he gets past the first four rounds without to many problems, assuming Kyrgio’s struggles continue, he has a reasonable shot at making the semis with Stan not always at top form in Slams.
    3) I think it is more unlikely than likely that Murray will reach the last four. With the French supporters if Tsonga reaches this stage and can get his HUGE forehand and serve going without too many UE, he would just get passed Nishikori, who can hold on too matches exceptionally well.
    4) Dimitrov played very well during the Aus swing, only losing to Nadal in 5 tight sets in the Aus open. The only concerning loss could be vs Struff and in Madrid where he looked strong he only lost to Thiem by 11-9 in a 3rd set tie break, so I have him overcoming Busta and Raonic but I agree it may not happen, though it very well could.

    • Really like your reasoning about taking Tsonga to the final. Also what you say about Kei makes sense.

      I just watching my recording of the Geneva final. Stan’s form is coming along but he had trouble today. Mischa took the first set. Stan pushes the limit waiting to the last minute to find his best in these Slams. We’ve seen it time after time. He may not be able to pull it off this time. Tsonga sounds very tempting. I think he can get past Kei. Kei might be hard to beat over 5 sets. I would hope Tsonga would only need 4 sets max.

      Also have Dimitrov making

    • Can’t see Tsonga beating Stan on this surface. Well I can but I highly doubt it will happen. I think it’s Wawrinka’s year here. I have a feeling Rafa will slightly falter at the end of the tournament with all the hype and pressure surrounding him being the heavy favorite. He knows it’s a big opportunity and Stan is the kind of player to take advantage of any nerves from any opponent in the final because Stan rarely plays with nerves in the final himself. Stanimal to bash his way to the trophy.

      • Well I’ve been waffling. I can also see Stan losing in a dramatic 5 to Fognini or winning in 5, and then winning a close one to Gasquet. Next if Stan makes it, he will take on Tsonga or Cilic and probably not get those matches done in 3 sets. Then he has to face ? plus Rafa!

        He’d have to be full metal Stanimal. He can do it but will he get stronger as he goes as usual because he’s not likely to get through many matches in 3 sets? His draw looks rigorous. Tsonga has had great form this year (before the baby) and Cilic can get on a roll.

        I still have Rafa vs Stan in the final but it haunts me some 😀

        • For some reason I have a feeling Stan will get through his early rounds quicker than the past. Kovalik and Berlocq are matches he should be able to win easily and his third rounder I have him playing Tiafoe. Whether he plays Frances or Seppi or Fognini, I think that’s a match he can also win in straights, even if he isn’t playing his best. As for Tsonga he seems to match up well against him. He beat him in four here at the French in 2015 and crushed him in Melbourne. Tsonga likes hard courts the most too while Stan likes clay the most and Stan beat him in straights on hard courts in Melbourne. I think it’s the discrepancy in their backhands that gives Stan the edge in their recent head to head history. Also Stan has a good track record against Cilic. And that fourth rounder I believe Stan could clock gasquet. Gasquet doesn’t have an easy path to get there with Monfils in his way. Plus gasquet has just come back from injury not too long against and hasn’t shown many signs of awesome form. I still think Richard could get to the fourth round just because the draw isn’t too tough. Not easy but not too difficult either because Monfils’ physical state (and mental for that matter) is even more questionable than that of gasquet.

          • Now I do actually have Stan dropping sets in all these matches I brought up because of the crowd factor. But like I said I can see him winning even easier too. It is stan so maybe I’m totally wrong and he’s gonna suck this tournament but I have a good feeling about him this year. He’s under the radar with his results but did just pick up the Geneva title so his confidence can’t be too low. Plus I don’t remember a time when Stan was playing great before winning a slam. He like to suck before he wins titles.

          • Yeah it seems Stan likes to suffer. He waits right until it’s down to the wire before shaping up.

            Today he started blasting the backhand and making it — he had to work hard to win that one. Mischa played well.

          • It’s a good story, Benny. I can see it. Yeah Fognini vs Tiafoe could go either way. I’m guessing that Fognini will want to win and dedicate it to his son. But I’m not sure he’ll be happy about going 5 sets with Tiafoe, which it could be. Being a brand new first time father can work for or against him. Fognini typically loves FO, tho.

  8. Can’t see Tsonga making it past QF after playing this week including his win today.

    It will eventually catch up with him.

  9. Round 1:
    Murray over Kuznetsov in 4
    Lokoli over Klizan in 5
    Almagro over Baghdatis in 3
    Del Potro over Pella in 4
    Isner over Thompson in 3
    Lorenzi over Berankis in 4
    Khachanov over Jarry in 4
    Berdych over Struff in 4
    A. Zverev over Verdasco in 4
    Herbert over Donaldson in 4
    Kicker over Dzumhur in 5
    Cuevas over Hamou in 3
    Querrey over Chung in 4
    Escobedo over Istomin in 4
    Chardy over Albot in 5
    Nishikori over Kokkinakis in 3
    Wawrinka over Kovalik in 3
    Berlocq over Dolgopolov in 4
    Seppi over Giraldo in 5
    Tiafoe over Fognini in 5
    Gasquet over De Greef in 3
    Gabashvili over Estrella Burgos in 3
    Monteiro over A. Muller in 4
    Monfils over Brown in 5
    Tsonga over Olivo in 3
    Edmund over Elias in 5
    Anderson over Jaziri in 3
    Kohlschreiber over Kyrgios in 4
    Ferrer over Young in 3
    Fratangelo over Lopez in 5
    Delbonis over Kravchuk in 4
    Cilic over Gulbis in 3
    Raonic over Darcis in 4
    Dutra Silva over Youzhny in 5
    Trungelliti over Halys in 4
    Muller over Garcia-Lopez in 4
    Carreno Busta over Mayer in 3
    Daniel over Janowicz in 4
    Robredo over Evans in 3
    Dimitrov over Robert in 3
    Sock over Vesely in 4
    Harrison over Bedene in 4
    Sandgren over Kukushkin in 5
    Bautista Agut over Millman in 3
    Simon over Basilashvili in 4
    Troicki over Donskoy in 3
    Haase over De Minaur in 3
    Nadal over Paire in 4
    Thiem over Tomic in 3
    Mahut over Bolelli in 5
    Coric over Bourgue in 3
    Johnson over Sugita in 4
    Tsitsipas over Karlovic in 5
    Mannarino over Zeballos in 5
    Lu over Stakhovsky in 4
    Goffin over Mathieu in 3
    Pouille over Benneteau in 4
    Bellucci over Lajovic in 4
    Medvedev over Bonzi in 4
    Ramos-Vinolas over Copil in 4
    M. Zverev over Napolitano in 3
    Schwartzman over Rublev in 4
    Tipsarevic over Sousa in 4
    Djokovic over Granollers in 3

  10. Round 2:
    Murray over Lokoli in 4
    Del Potro over Almagro in 4
    Isner over Lorenzi in 3
    Berdych over Khachanov in 4
    A. Zverev over Herbert in 4
    Cuevas over Kicker in 3
    Querrey over Escobedo in 4
    Nishikori over Chardy in 4
    Wawrinka over Berlocq in 3
    Tiafoe over Seppi in 4
    Gasquet over Gabashvili in 4
    Monfils over Monteiro in 4
    Tsonga over Edmund in 4
    Anderson over Kohlschreiber in 5
    Ferrer over Fratangelo in 4
    Cilic over Delbonis in 4
    Raonic over Dutra Silva in 3
    Muller over Trungelliti in 3
    Carreno Busta over Daniel in 3
    Dimitrov over Robredo in 4
    Sock over Harrison in 3
    Bautista Agut over Sandgren in 3
    Simon over Troicki in 5
    Nadal over Haase in 3
    Thiem over Mahut in 3
    Coric over Johnson in 4
    Mannarino over Tsitsipas in 4
    Goffin over Lu in 3
    Pouille over Bellucci in 4
    Ramos-Vinolas over Medvedev in 4
    M. Zverev over Schwartzman in 5
    Djokovic over Tipsarevic in 3

  11. Round 3:
    Del Potro over Murray in 4
    Isner over Berdych in 5
    Cuevas over A. Zverev in 5
    Nishikori over Querrey in 4
    Wawrinka over Tiafoe in 4
    Gasquet over Monfils in 5
    Tsonga over Anderson in 4
    Cilic over Ferrer in 4
    Raonic over Muller in 3
    Dimitrov over Carreno Busta in 5
    Sock over Bautista Agut in 4
    Nadal over Simon in 3
    Thiem over Coric in 4
    Goffin over Mannarino in 4
    Pouille over Ramos-Vinolas in 5
    Djokovic over M. Zverev in 4

  12. Round of 16:
    Del Potro over Isner in 5
    Cuevas over Nishikori in 4
    Wawrinka over Gasquet in 4
    Tsonga over Cilic in 5
    Dimitrov over Raonic in 4
    Nadal over Sock in 3
    Goffin over Thiem in 4
    Djokovic over Pouille in 4

  13. QF:
    Del Potro over Cuevas in 4
    Wawrinka over Tsonga in 4
    Nadal over Dimitrov in 4
    Goffin over Djokovic in 5
    SF:
    Wawrinka over Del Potro in 4
    Nadal over Goffin in 3
    Final:
    Wawrinka over Nadal in 4
    (Stan wins a slam every year. This is his best slam. Nadal will also feel pressure as such a heavy favorite. Wawrinka to win a second RG title.)

    • Rafa is not losing this should he get to the final. There is no way he will let this get away from him. Also I am not sure about Stan being able to turn it on and get into his best form. Which is what it’s going to take to try to beat Rafain the final.

      I don’t think Tsonga will go far here, even though he tries to bring his best st RG. I also don’t think Delpo will make it to the semifinals. I can’t see him being in good enough form to do well in best of five set matches.

      Goffin and Thiem meeting in the fourth round should be a great match. I can see it going either way. Very tough to call.

      I don’t see Dimi getting to the quarterfinals. If Raonic can’t get there, then PCB might do it.

      • I don’t think PCB is gonna make a huge run here. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong I dunno. We’ll have to wait and see. I can’t wait myself that’s for sure ?

      • Also I have a feeling Rafa is gonna have that mindset that he can’t let it get away from him and it will hurt him and cause him to play just a bit tighter in the final and like I said I believe Stan the man is the guy who takes advantage of this the best of anyone. I of course was heavily considering Rafa as that’s probably the most logical pick. Call it a hunch though but I have a great feeling about Stan this year. I dunno what it is I just do. Now he could still have a great tourney and lose to rafa in the final as many are picking. But I’m going bold plus I look at Stan’s 3-0 record in slam finals along with the fact that Rafa is now a pretty overwhelming favorite and may have some pressure on himself considering it would be probably his sweetest victory. These aspects have me thinking Stan can get this done. If Stan doesn’t win it’s obviously Rafa with his tenth though. I really think a red hot Stan in a grand slam final is the only one who can stop Rafa here.

        • More like wishful thinking. Stan may not even get to the final, even though many including myself put him there. For me it’s more like not many choices, given how poor that half of the draw is. If A Zverev is more expierenced, I would have predicted him to reach the final.

          If Djoko is in that half of the draw, I would pick him to reach the final, regardless of how poorly he may play! And that’s how poor that half of the draw is!

          • Nah. I like Stan at the french. In Rome I picked him to lose to Rafa in the final as it was a masters event Rafa has won many times. Here Rafa has also won many times but history and his sweetest win is on the line which could give him extra nerves plus Stan has a title here and is a beast in finals.

          • Provided he (Stan) can reach the final! Rafa is also a beast, a bigger beast than Stan, at the FO!! I doubt Rafa is so nervous over BO5 to lose the final! Don’t underestimate Rafa! He’s 9 for 9 in FO final, > Stan’s 1 for 1 at the FO, or 3 for 3 at all slam finals!!

            Stan may be the more nervous one should he get there!

          • Lucky working so hard in the eventuality they her suspicions that Nole is back are realized.

            So much for all the inconsistency talk where he won’t have a deep run.

            #GoalpostMovimgIsEverywhere

          • I did pick Stan to get to the final in my bracket for the reason that Lucky stated so well – lack of choices! My thinking is that Zverevis not yet ready to go deep in slam. Murray has been AWOL, so one can’t pick him for the first nail spot.

        • Rafa’s had a lot of sweet slam victories. FO 2005, 2006, 2010, 2013, 2014, Wimbly 2008, USO 2010 (career slam at 24!), 2013. Slam wins are all sweet but I think those were the sweetest. Sure, a win at RG this year would be great after 3 years w/o one, but it’s not gonna send him over the edge.

          • You sure because I would say after all he’s been through the last few years, a win here would be really fuckin sweet.

        • Benny, agree with most of what you say about Stan, but I’m less confident of him reaching the final than I am of him winning it. I’ll pick him to win the tournament if he makes the SF, but not now -that’s Rafa.

          However if Stan makes a deep run and is bringing his A+ game then I don’t think anyone is going to stop him. He has more and bigger weapons than most players, including Nadal. But his biggest edge in a slam final might be mental; somehow, he seems to transform himself in the biggest very biggest matches. Should he make the final against Rafa, I don’t think he’ll feel much pressure. He’s already won it (after never expecting to) and he’ll be the underdog, which suits him just fine.

          • Fed, Rafa and Nole at their best would beat any version of CryBaby.

            None of them were when they lost to him at slams four times compared to double digit wins.

            Never on CB’s racquet IMO.

          • Yeah I would say you’re probably right hawks. Although I don’t think we’ve really seen many matches where Stan and one of the big three are both at the top of their game in a slam except some epic matches Stan has had with Novak at Aussie opens and US Open 2013. Those two seem to bring out the best in each other the most. I freaking love watching their matches. It’s like watching peak Rafa vs peak Roger. Absolutely jaw dropping rallies and shotmaking.

          • Yeah, good battles in the past. I think it was nerves in Nole’s first two slam losses to him, and burn out last year.

            Correction: big three had five losses to him in slams. One each for fedal far from their respective bests.

  14. No Mary. I firmly believe Roger is winning Wimbledon anyways this year. At this rate Roger will end his career with 20+ slams. I honestly don’t think Rafa will catch up to Roger whether he wins this tournament or not. Also lucky I’m saying Rafa will be more nervous than Stan because so much history is on the line. TENTH FRENCH OPEN AND HE WINS IT AFTER ALL THESE YEARS OF NO SLAMS! OVERWHELMING FAVORITE MAN HE IS BOUND TO GET IT DONE! I do think all of this will be in Rafa’s mind while I believe Stan will take the underdog status and use it promptly to his advantage. These are just my opinions that’s why I’m saying “I think” and “I believe.” I won’t be surprised if Rafa proves me wrong and if he does ok that will be awesome to see a tenth french open for Rafa. I ain’t denying he’s a badass or a beast lucky. These are just my predictions for the tournament. Also in the final Mary if Stan plays Rafa I’ll be rooting for Stan. You know why? NOT because of the slam count. Because Stan is my second favorite player. But I didn’t pick him because of that. I picked him because of the reasons I gave. Like I’m not gonna pick him at fuckin Wimbledon or something but this is the french open and based on the reasons I’ve already established he is my pick for the title.

    • Benny, I’d put Fed as the narrow favourite for Wimby this year, but only narrowly and wouldn’t make any predictions beyond that. He’ll be 36 at USO and Agassi’s words are most pertinent: when the end comes, it comes quickly. By “the end” he meant the end of being able to compete with the very best, not just being in the top 20 or so. Maybe Federer will win 20 slams. But I think it’s more likely that the AO was his last hurrah. Maybe winning 19, with wimby being the last, is slightly more likely than the other 2 scenarios.

        • True, Agassi was especially vulnerable. But I still think his point is generally true. And knee or back injury could always flare up for Roger and, at his age, basically be the end of his chances at a slam.

      • Fair point. I’m probably overconfident in his chances due to how his incredible form to start the year. I think it depends on how others start to play like Murray and Djokovic. I would say Roger Kyrgios and Rafa are the favorites at Wimbledon as of right now. Kyrgios is who I am most worried about in regards to Roger’s biggest threat there. Like I said though, it depends on how Murray and Djokovic are playing heading in. Those two, along with Raonic, will be tough to beat if they regain their form.

        • Also, in this case, I’m assuming Kyrgios will be healthy again by then. I’m guessing and hoping that he will be.

          • Frankly I do not think Kyrgios is ready to win Wimbledon. He lacks discipline and commitment. But as he is super talented, on his day he can probably spoil the chances of any of the big 4.

        • I thought Roger was really out of gas by end of Miami. He got lucky to beat Kyrgios, and Nadal didn’t play well in the final. All credit to him for winning, of course, but I think those 3 tournaments really took a lot of out of him. He’ll be fresh for grass season, but my guess is that by USO, even with careful scheduling, he won’t be. Not saying he can’t do it, but the margins are so small at the top that I wouldn’t bet on any slam beyond Wimby.

        • I should say: I like Roger’s chances against anyone if he can play at his early-season level. I’m just doubtful about long he can continue to do so. I’d love to be wrong.

    • Benny, never underestimate Rafa. Rafa is one guy who can bring out the worse in a player, ask Fed. Rafa at his best will not allow his opponent to play his best, that’s what a great counterpuncher would do. Rafa vs Stan, just look at their H2H and you’ll know. To me, Rafa’s Wimbledon 2008, AO2009 and USO2010 were more significant wins for Rafa(I’m sure Rafa would feel the same too); just watch how he’s with tears when he’s about to beat Verdasco in the SF at AO2009; or how he was with tears after winning the USO in 2010. Not forgetting how nervous he was at Wimbledon 2008 final and yet was able to win it and against Fed.

      You’re telling me Rafa can’t overcome his nerve at RG after winning 9 of them?? He’ll probably move on to the next slam. After AO2014, Rafa doesn’t seem that devastated any more with his losses; his loss at AO2017 wasn’t as bad as his loss at AO2014, at least to me it felt that way watching him.

      As for Stan vs Djoko, Djoko at his best > Stan at his best; Stan at his best > Djoko at any other level; Djoko > Stan when both are playing so so tennis. Djoko not at his best or at subpar level is still better than most players, except the other big four plus A Zverev (assuming they’re not playing subpar tennis of course!!If they are Djoko still have chances to beat them!!).

      • LOLLucky working OT.

        So much for Nole too inconsistent to have a deep run at RG.

        Moving goalposts are everywhere!!’

        #NoleIsBack

  15. Obviously you won’t root for Stan at Wimbly because you want Fed to win. For the same reason you will root for Stan to win at RG because you do not want Rafa to win i.e. threaten Fed’s legacy. I am not sure Fed will win Wimbledon or any more slams this year. Nole would be back by USO and Rafa cannot be discounted either.At Wimbledon, not sure whether Muzz would be back. But if he is, Fed won’t win.

    • You’re annoying me by assuming I care so much about Federer’s legacy. Lemme tell u something and this is a fact. I wouldn’t pick Stan to win Wimbledon if Federer was gone there too. Why does it trigger you and Rafans like lucky so much that I am not picking your guy. Do you think I’m annoyed at everyone picking Nadal? No!! Also I remember quite a few Rafans on here picked Rafa at the US Open even though he wasn’t in great form. In fact I almost picked him but realized with his lack of form I should go with someone else so I went with the then recent Olympics finalist Del Po. Still Stan was there and so was Kyrgios who is my 3rd favorite player and I didn’t even consider picking them to win it. I actually remember I had Rafa winning in my US open racket bracket but before the deadline I changed it. Obviously Del Po wasn’t the pick and Stan actually was!! Point is I am not picking against Rafa for any reasons other than the ones I gave.

        • I mean if fed withdrew from Wimbledon this year and Stan was there I wouldn’t pick Stan to win it because it’s grass. My point is I’m not picking Stan cuz I’m rooting for him. I happen to be rooting for him but I also truly believe he can do it.

  16. I amend my above post. Nole is already back but unlike clay, where he is the second best, on hard court, he is possibly the best. On grass, he is a serious contender but not the favorite. So it isn’t a given that Fed will get 20+ slams, even if he is doping.

  17. Time is running out for the big 4. For Fed , his best chance is this year and the next. Probably it is the same for the other 3 as they do not have the benefit of favorable schedules and draws. In any case, I suspect that the nextgen are going to be winning most of the slams from 2019.

  18. Also Mary I go bold A LOT. Just look at the rest of my draw. I got Cuevas in the quarters, I got Del Po in the semis, I got Goffin in the semis.

  19. CryBaby’s chances will be hurt significantly by playing in a final yesterday like Tsonga.

    Might make the final. But even if he does, he won’t have enough against an inform Rafole.

  20. Quarterfinals
    A. Zverev over Berdych in 4
    Wawrinka over Tsonga in 4
    Nadal over Dimitrov in 3
    Djokovic over Thiem in 4
    Semifinals
    Wawrinka over A. Zverev in 5
    Nadal over Djokovic in 4
    Final
    Nadal over Wawrinka in 4

    tsame as Rickys apart from a bold Dimitrov beating PCB then Raonic.

  21. WAIT DEL POTRO HAS INJURIES I DIDNT EVEN REALIZE HE HAD CRAP!! I should change my picks on racket bracket for sure.

  22. Ok well Del Po confirmed he is playing so he can’t be in horrible condition. I’m just gonna keep him in the semis in my racket bracket but if I had to pick someone else I would probably go with Isner over Del Po in the sweet 16 then Isner over Cuevas in the quarters then Stan over Isner in the semis. I swear to god if that actually happens? I find it unlikely that Big John makes the semis though the draw allows him Del Po or someone else to. More popular picks are Zverev or Murray but I got Cuevas upsetting Zverev in round 3 and I kinda don’t want to switch the Del Po pick and have him prove me wrong and regret switching it. Plus it’s only picks and if I lose the racket bracket well ok then lol.

  23. I went with Berdych because Isner has a problem beating him and Delpo ‘s injured, Murrays struggling.

    Tsonga has a tough draw ,I nearly picked Cilic over him but the Frenchman does have a good record at RG.

  24. No way Rafa is going to beat Nole in 3 sets if they meet.

    Since their Madrid match, I have a strong gut feeling that it would be a repeat of FO 2013 SF epic between the 2 of them. And I definitely think that is what we are gonna get this fortnight. Not really sure though about who will win that match. I’m still 50-50 about it.

    • Please, 2013 both Rafa and Djoko were playing good tennis; and Rafa was about to get it done in four sets if not for the fourth set TB; right now only Rafa is playing well whilst Djoko is not. I pick Rafa in 3 because Djoko has to get past Goffin or Thiem, which I think it will take an effort from Djoko to win that match.

      Thiem won’t be playing like that Rome SF even if he has a hard time beating Goffin in the previous round, he’s still young and fit, and with a week’s break after Rome, he should be fine physically; likewise for Goffin. They may not beat a struggling Djoko but may push him to the limit; this is not the formidable Djoko we are talking about. Djoko may also struggle through his earlier rounds…,

      • Yes Rafa is playing good. But is he really playing as good as 2013, I have my reservations regarding that.
        I won’t really go on to say that Nole isn’t playing good tennis. He’s just not playing good tennis consistently for 2-3 sets. And as far as that possible QF with Goffin/Thiem is concerned, he might be facing a drained opponent in that match as Goffin vs Thiem can also very well go the distance & the winner of that may not be in best possible shape to go head to head with Nole.

        Yes, Nole may definitely struggle in early rounds but that may also help him in finding confidence in his game. Their match at Madrid had only one positive for Rafa (my opinion only) he ended his losing streak against Nole. Nole never really tested Rafa’s game the way he can with his aggressive depth, played it too safe that day.If he does turn up with a game plan, then we may get to see a real battle regardless of how well Rafa is playing. Or he may still turn up like their Madrid match completely clueless about what he wants to do on the court.
        I just feel it will be the former rather than the later one. If it’s the latter, then yes, Rafa will win in 3 but I don’t think it will be.

        • Rafa wasn’t even playing extremely well in that Madrid match; he was very nervous nearing the end of the match. If Rafa is not that nervous, and if Djoko is playing that well like in the Rome SF, Rafa would still come out the winner, imo. Why? Because Rafa no longer engages in long rallies with Djoko, but plays unpredictably to keep Djoko guessing.

          Djoko likes rhythm, and all his opponents at Rome, except Zverev, gave him the rhythm that he wanted. Once a player like Zverev who could serve and hit so well, Djoko couldn’t do anything about it.

          To me, Rafa wasn’t playing that well at FO2013 during the early rounds, losing a set in each match to a big server. He was horrible vs Foggy then but managed to beat him in straight sets, and thereafter he started to play better. Rafa no doubt won three clay titles plus reaching a final at MC in 2013, but he struggled in some of those matches – vs Gulbis and Ferrer.

          In 2017, Rafa may not have as much power or speed as his 2013, but he more than make up for that with his better all round game – better serving, better court positions, more varieties. He hasn’t much problems dealing with his opponents (except at Madrid vs Foggy when Rafa had a ear infection)and was obviously out of steam at Rome and hence lost in the QF to an opponent whom he had beaten twice and who had to redline his game to beat Rafa.

          Thiem vs Goffin – they’re young, much younger than Djoko, they may or may not run out of steam; Djoko has to deal with the likes of Diego and/or Pouille first, who aren’t easy opponents on clay either.

          • “Why? Because Rafa no longer engages in long rallies with Djoko, but plays unpredictably to keep Djoko guessing.”

            So we can somehow say this after just one match what Rafa no longer does but we cannot believe somehow that Nole is back LOL.

            Confirmatory bias is everywhere.

          • Maybe Rafa struggled more in 2013 because others on the tour were also playing better and maybe that is not the case right now.

            Maybe Rafa was able to use more variety in his match against Djoko because Nole allowed him to by playing pretty safe mid court balls in baseline exchanges( unlike Thiem against Rafa). He never really went for the lines (except for a few points) like he usually does against Rafa. And he was more nervous throughout the match than Rafa at any stage of the match.
            And if not giving any rhythm guaranteed success against Nole, then I really doubt that Fed will lose so many matches against Nole because nobody at the top has as much of unpredictability in their game as Fed. Zverev also played that rhythm game but still won. So it’s more to do with Nole’s racquet doing the talk rather than anything else.
            And what I have observed so far over the clay swing, his game is slowly coming back. How much more time will it take for him to hit his full strides remains to be seen. It might happen this fortnight or it may take time till the end of season. My guess is as good as anyone else’s.

          • Fed when he’s playing with varieties DID beat Djoko, if not how do you think Fed beat Djoko during 2015? He couldn’t beat Djoko at the slams but pushed Djoko to the limit, and that was Djoko at his very best!

            You want to compare the Djoko of 2017 to the Djoko of 2015??? Even if Djoko is slowly getting back his form now, Rafa playing the way he plays now would be too much for Djoko.

          • Djoko is already back.

            Peak Djoko played Peak Rafa in 2013 at FO and at USO losing twice – once on Rafa’s favourite surface and once on Nole’s favourite surface.

            I was lucky to watch them in person in Montreal where peak Rafa beat peak Nole on Nole’s favourite surface in a third set tiebreak.

            It was an incredible match played at an amazing level.

            A meeting between them in the French Open final would be an amazing match and will go at least.

            #NoleIsBack

          • I agree about Novak being on the way back but not yet at his best. It could happen during RG or it might take longer.

            As you said, your guess is as good as anyone else’s. It’s not scientific. We are all just giving out opinions and no one knows for sure. Anyone who presumes to think they knowvto a certainty, is kidding themselves.

          • Either “kidding themselves” or “absurd” according to some “respectful” poster here.

          • Zverev didn’t play the rhythm game; he played many short points and won most of them. I won’t call that ‘rhythm’ game or giving any rhythm to Djoko. In contrast Bedene and Agut for examples were playing long rallies after rallies, with inability to end points sooner. Delpo too did likewise and lost.

          • As I said, you complained about being disrespected, yet you were the one that initiated disrespect.

            Not unlike another poster who tells others what not to post where, then does so herself.

            One poster might call such behaviour “absurd” or “kidding themselves”.

            As you said, respect goes both ways.

            #NoleIsBack

    • ⚠️ WARNING: clicking on the link above will install the Fedfawn Virus on your PC or mobile device exposing you to endless fedfawn biased articles. ⚠️

  25. My first two differences from Ricky were…. CORRECT!!!

    Differences from Ricky:

    1st rnd:
    GGL over Muller
    Robredo over Evans

    Congrats to Me.
    (Commies to Ricky and those that don’t yet realize that….)

    #NoleIsBack
    #HawkstradamusRising

      • If I may say so Myself, just some very shrewd tennis acumen plus a modicum of tennis objectivity (a rare combination found on tennis forums).

        I’m just here to share and pass on My knowledge such that others may learn.

        #CongratsToMe
        #PayItFwd
        #NoleIsBack
        #HawkstradamusRising
        #Humb1e

  26. I think Rafa will get #10! Ricky’s one prediction that I’m not so sure about is Rafa beating Novak in straight sets… I know he beat him in convincing straights in Madrid, but I would expect Novak to play much better the second time around. If Novak even makes it to the semis to face Rafa, I will go with Rafa in 4. I would honestly be surprised if Novak didn’t at least get a set off Rafa at a major. That being said, Rafa for the title!

  27. I’m still not convinced Nole’s back yet. He was a lot better in Rome than before, but he showed mental fragility in that match against Zverev. He’s getting better, but I’m far from convinced he’s back.

  28. Depends on how one would like to define ‘he is back’. ‘Back’ to what? Or at what level? Back to his best level, i.e. able to win important titles? Yet to be seen. Back to his normal, consistent level, beating those he should beat? He’s about there, but still can put in a shockingly bad match when you least expected it, i.e. in a Masters final.

    My take – he’s on the right track, but still not consistent enough to beat everyone of those that he should beat. A ‘normal’ Djoko would not lose so meekly to Zverev, no matter how well Zverev played on that day.

    • I agree with Lucky! Absolutely!

      I’ve made my argument and given my reasons, which are similar to Lucky’s. I don’t think anyone can know for sure, as abhirf said.

      None of us know Novak or are a member of his team or inner circle. So we cannot say for sure where he’s at. I think it’s quite reasonable to think he’s on the right track now. But for me the consistency is just not there.

      We never used to see such dramatic ups and downs with Novak. I also agree that he would never have gone down so meekly in a final no matter how well Zverev played. Novak always saved his best for finals and would fight hard for the win.

    • It was not so long ago that Lucky said Nole was too inconsistent to have a deep run at the French Open.

      Best of five format requires consistency over two weeks to have a deep run.

      Now Lucky changes her tune saying even a poor Nole is unlikely to be beaten by a random player or even a highly touted Goffin or Thiem.

      Moving goalposts are everywhere.

      Nole is back means being one of the top favourites to win tournaments which he hasn’t been in a long time. It means having fire in his eyes and belly and showing emotion on court. Which he hadn’t shown in almost a year.

      Nole during his Grand Slam run never had to play in form players in three matches in just over 24 hours including associated warm ups, cool downs and media commitments.

      While I disagree with Lucky on this, I respect her ability to respect others opinions. She also realizes the favouritism the French have for Federer more than anyone else.

      #NoleIsBack

  29. New cloth sponsor for Djoko, white shirt with some colored designs. Are they the colors of the Serbian flag? Looks quite refreshing on him. Nice.

  30. 1st rnd:
    GGL over Muller
    Robredo over Evans
    Fognini over Tiafoe
    Estrella “Dam” Burgos over Gabba Gabba
    Giraldo over Seppi

    4-1 so far vs Ricky.

    Congrats to Me.

    #HawkstradamusRising
    #NoleIsBack

  31. I was going to pick Estrella Burgos but then remembered the golden rule :he only plays well once a year in Ecuador.
    Its so hard to pick these matches that go five.At least I got the Fog right .

  32. Finally found the sort of analysis of Rafa’s game I was looking for. Saw a video analysis by Patrick Mouratoglou (always like his analysis) on Rafa’s forehand. I am so glad he compared Rafa’s forehand of today to Rafa’s 2016 forehand. The key stats as as follows:

    1. Spin on the Forehand
    -Last year in August, Rafa was hitting ONLY 22% of his forehands above 3000 RPM
    -This year in May, he hit 77% of his forehands above 3000 RPM!!

    Take-aways: Rafa is hitting his forehand much heavier now. He is generating his trademark spin. He probably feels more relaxed and his swing is back to its normal self. Yes, August 2016 was not clay so he was also probably flattening out his shots more but still, the difference is massive and the numbers are NOT what you would expect.

    2. Forehand-Backhand Proportion

    -2016 Roland Garros, Rafa hit only 49% of his groundstrokes with a forehand and 51% with his backhand. SHOCKING!
    -In 2016 RG, he hit 61% forehands as the first shot after the a first serve.
    -In 2017 clay season, he has hit 75% forehands after a first serve!

    3. Court Positioning

    -Rafa hit ONLY 14% of his forehands inside the court last year’s clay season
    -Rafa has hit 32% of his forehands inside the court this clay season!

    I will put the video up as well from my laptop.

    It is really satisfying to see the quantification of the improvements he has made! Vamos RAFA!

    On another note, I thought he played a solid first round match against Benoit. he can surely hit his forehand more aggressively and serve better. He will keep improving until he becomes unbeatable here.

    • vr,

      Thanks so much for that great analysis! Got what it’s worth, I love hearing from Patrick Mouratoglou, Serena’s coach! They have had him on ESPN as an unofficial tennis analyst and his thoughts on Rafa and other men’s players are always interesting.

      Those stats are really informative and tell us so much about how Rafa has improved in the technical aspects of his game. Great read!

      I also agree with you about Rafa’s performance in his first match. I saw the replay and they were switching back and forth between Rafa’s match and Novak’s. So I saw most of it, but they only showed the second set when the score was Paire up a break at 3-1. So I did not get to see how that happened. But Rafa broke back and then held to even it up and took control from there.

      The first and second sets were blowouts. Rafa did what he needed to do and there’s nit much to analyze with an opponent who wasn’t able to really challenge Rafa.

      Rafa was solid if not at his best. But he doesn’t have to be. He has to play well
      enough to win. I don’t pay attention if he makes more UE’s than usual at this early stage.

      Rafa will get better and should peak and be at his best by the second week.

      • NNY, yes, the stats are very ineresting. If we dig keep, we can draw more conclusions as well.

        For e.g., if you look at point no.2, Rafa is now hitting 75% forehands after a 1st serve on average. This is due to a combination of two factors:

        1.Rafa is moving better and his feeling great about run-around forehands.THe footwork is right up there.

        2. His serving is more precise and accurate. He is able to get more returns to land where he intends them to and is then able to start the point with his forehand.

        I am also very confident about his backhand these days. He is crushing it hard and is spreading the court so well. If you notice, he is hitting those wicked angle CC backhands and is then moving forward waiting for a backhand DTL . He then follows this with a net approach and puts the ball away if the need be. He has been working on this pattern.

        • I really don’t see Rafa losing here. Nothing is guaranteed but the likelihood is very low. Unless Djokovic really catches fire, Rafa will storm through.

          • Thanks VR. Patrick is proof that there are other ways to tell that Rafa is back. He points out the CAUSES that Rafa is back.The titles are just the effect.

            He could have seen these improvements after just a few matches.

          • Stated another way, did Rafa hit more inside the court with heavier spin BECAUSE he put himself in position to win tournaments? Or did he put himself in position to win tournaments because of said improved play.

            #CauseAndEffect

          • Agreed. Those people who claim that winning titles is necessary to prove that a player is back are mixing up cause and effect.

          • Very perceptive Mary.

            I’ve noticed the same. However, I wouldn’t read too much into his first two rounds. Rafa is like a fine wine. You have to give him time.

          • Thanks VR for the good read. Rafa has certainly improved all aspects of his game, and is confident enough to play more inside the court, and hence he’s able to get into good positions to win the points more readily, instead of having to grind his way to a win. I believe that does give his opponents ‘different looks’ (unexpected looks) and his opponents are not good enough to counter these ‘different looks’.

            I believe that’s one area he has so improved that helps him win against Djoko. Staying at or behind the baseline to rally with Djoko is not going to help Rafa to beat Djoko, for Djoko is so comfortable rallying all day from the baseline – Djoko may have his serve and returns and his runnning FH &BH not up to par, but when he’s given the time to play his usual rallies, he’s still very comfortable at doing that and so engaging in long rallies with Djoko is playing into his hands.

            Zverev won the Rome final not by playing long rallies with Djoko, but by playing and winning most of the short points – 42 vs 27 – against Djoko.

  33. Great reading vr! Thanks!

    Last year it was all about Rafa not winning titles and going out early at tournaments! Now, when Novak failed to win titles he is BACK and titles suddenly don’t mean much! Ridiculous double standards!

    I think it’s all about winning titles and gaining confidence if one wants to be at the top! Novak is playing better but his confidence is not high! Look how he was celebrating the win yesterday almost as he was able to beat a top five player. I have seen those from Rafa a lot last year…

    Rafa’s confidence come from winning titles not from practicing well or playing better yet loosing the matches he should have won…

    Vamos!

    • Straw man argument. Which I tend not to counter because I don’t like to reward lazy criticism of my posts (however, I do welcome counter arguments that don’t put words in my mouth). But I will make an exception here (one per week maximum).

      Sigh, here we go…

      Nole made semis in Madrid only losing to Rafa and made final in Rome. That is not “going out early.”

      So, no ridiculous double standards. Just ridiculous (and lazy) straw man argument.

      (Somewhat related: I am 5-1 vs Ricky in tournament picks so far.)
      (Also somewhat related: When I picked Fed to win AO prior to its start, there were many who scoffed. Then when I said Nole was back, many said he was too inconsistent to make a deep run. Now those same people are predicting to get by Thiem/Goffin and five rounds only to lose to Rafa. LOL. Too funny.)

      #NoleIsBack
      #HawkstradamusRising
      #Humb1e

  34. Mary, it’s not as simple as cause and effect. We don’t view Djoko like any other ordinary player(s); for him he’s used to his winning ways, so, to say he’s back means he’s back to his winning ways, when clearly he’s not.

    Nats said it so well, why the double standards regarding Rafa and Djoko, when saying they’re back or not?? What’s the proof that Rafa or Djoko is back? By winning titles that they used to win and beating the tough opponents they used to beat! Rafa has proven now that he’s back, from reaching finals to finally winning his important titles.

    Djoko has just reached a final, at Rome this year, after five or six events played since he won a 250 at Doha, but he hasn’t won an important title yet. To say he’s back but when he’s still losing in important match(es) is somewhat lowering our expectations about a champion like him. We should be expecting the same standard from both Rafa and Djoko.

    • No, anyone can see a player is back AFTER the EFFECT of winning multiple titles. Even a non-tennis fan could casually read an article and say this.

      A player is BACK when they are playing at a level – PHYSICALLY and MENTALLY – that puts them in contention to be one of the leading favourites. Nole is second only to THE KING OF CLAY at RG.

      Rafa wasn’t back until the French Open began last year. But he WAS back, having just one one title on clay. Had he not been injured in Paris (aggravating a pre-existing injury like I’d said when Rafa was observed with a wrap on his wrist weeks prior – when someone here incorrectly said he wasn’t), but I digress), he would have WON RG, the EFFECT of being back.

      Anyone can see EFFECT, experienced observers can see CAUSE.

      #FedIsBack
      #RafaIsBack
      #NoleIsBack
      #MurrayIsNotBack
      #HawkstradamusRising
      #Humb1e

      • Why is this such a BIG DEAL to you? It’s a simple matter of opinion.
        It is subjective right now.
        Can we leave it at that? Of course it’s your prerogative to bring it up whenever you feel like it. But there are some of us that just want to wait and see. He seems on the right track. I’m still unsure of his emotional state but Agassi might very well be the right help for him.

        • rc,

          You ask a good question. Indeed! Why is it such a big deal? Is it about the need to be right or intolerance for different opinions? This whole subject is being beaten to death over and over.

          It is subjective! That’s the point! Some of us are not convinced that Novak only getting to his second final this year means he is back, subtitle the clay season, he wasn’t even going deep in tournaments. The way he lost in that final indicates that he may be on the right track, but is not there yet.

          You have said that something is missing. I agree. There are stil signs of lack of focus and inconsistency.

          I don’t see this as black or white, right or wrong. It’s a judgrnent call.

        • rc, respectfully, I’m not sure why you singled me out but that’s ok. I’m a little taken aback.

          It’s more of a big deal to those that call my opinion “absurd” (nny), “kidding myself” (lucky) or saying I use “Ridiculous double standards” (natashao) and then turn around ironically accusing me of being disrespectful (nny). Is that showing tolerance for different opinions? Did I use such judgement about their opinions on this issue?

          And yes nny is right, it’s not black or white. I never said it was. It’s indeed a judgement call. I never said it wasn’t. Show me where I’ve said otherwise in either case.

          The question is, why is my opinion such a big deal to everyone else that they resort to such terms.

          That is what is important to me (as important as anything can be on a tennis forum – i.e., not very).

          • hawkeye.although we disagree on many things, I have a lot of respect for your predictions especially after AO. Many here were claiming he looked rusty and fat. I did not think he was rusty. The “fat” bit reminded me of a hero of some action thriller I had read. The hero looked fat but when he took off his shirt, you could see it was all muscles. However as Fed was 35, I simply did not think he could win the title. It also meant predicting that Nole and Muzz would lose. Who, after the season they had had, could predict that? Obviously you did what you are doing now, you looked at how he was playing, how Nole and Muzz were playing. I was led astray by focusing on Fed’s age.

          • Nole played a solid R1 match. There is nothing wrong with holding an opinion that Nole is not back. What is wrong is basing it on the assumption that Nole is back only when he wins titles. Which is fallacious argument confusing cause and effect.

          • Mary, you’re holding Djoko to a lower standard than most expecting a champ like him to have, it’s just that simple. Everyone knows cause and effect, but we can’t see the effect hence there’s no proof of the cause. You can talk all you want about the cause, that’s subjective, only the effects( i.e. Winning titles) are not subjective.

          • Agreed. Nothing wrong at all and I can understand where it comes from. I don’t care for the snide BH remarks, so I tend to return in kind to try to show what it feels like to me. I respect when shown respect always, and give back as good as I’m given. I like to have a bit of fun and can admittedly get repetitive, but I truly do it in jest just being a caricature of myself intentionally.

            But I do like good debate and back and forth when it’s well thought out, and words aren’t cherry picked, twisted and/or taken out of context (many times intentionally), which is when I’ll just say straw man, confirmatory bias, and so on.

            Yeah, the Fed thing was because I did think Murray would struggle being the hunted, not the hunter, after so many years and Fed usually has his number, plus he’d be tired after such a long chase – it’s like you finally get there and then it’s ok what’s next? I thought it would take Rafa longer to get back into form whereas Fed is quick to play himself into form especially with favourable draws and scheduling. Plus Nole’s level had plummeted. So while Fed wasn’t the favourite, I thought it was a reasonable call, especially when I heard rumours conditions would be historically fast.

            But yeah, you can see the intensity of a Rafa or a Nole change over a few matches and you can just tell.

          • You are conceding that you are mixing up cause and effect. You can hold Djok to a higher standard, that is your right. But you should hold this based on how he is playing (cause), not on whether he is winning titles(effect).

          • My post AT 4:05 PM is to Mary AT 3:41 PM.

            (Lucky doesn’t get it assuming to know what Mary thinks.)

            #CauseAndEffect
            #NoleIsBack

          • Mary, like I said, your take on the cause is subjective! What’s that so difficult to understand? Nobody is confusing cause with effect. What’s the point of saying Djoko is back but he still couldn’t win anything? To us, he winning the important titles means he’s truly back. It’s no point saying he’s back (according to your subjective view) but he’s not winning, ie there’s no proof of the effect! So you’re saying there is the cause but there’s no effect yet? Well, like I said, that’s subjective and only when he wins a title (the effect) then we can proof the cause and the effect! Till then your take is just as good as any of ours, so stop acting like you know better than us here!

            This is very annoying, and like what RC said, what’s the big deal about this cause and effect or whether Djoko is back or not issue???

          • And Mary, how’s Djoko playing? The serve is not as good as before; the ROS is poor by his standard (couldn’t even generate a single BP in that Rome final), having no clue how to break Zverev’s serve; his running BH and FH aren’t having the precision he had before his slump, how’s that for not basing my opinion on how Djoko plays???

            You’re saying he’s a good as before now?

          • Lucky, I am not saying you shouldn’t say that Nole is not back. But you should say it based on how he is playing , not on whether he has won titles. You are good at analyzing player’s games. So why not give reasons based on your observations? After all, winning titles is also dependant on the other players i.e. it is a relative test of excellence. But how a person plays, his weapons, his intensity, his fitness etc, an analysis and evaluation of these would be how an expert like you can determine whether he is back.

          • Lucky at 4:54 PM, In the three matches in Rome, both his serve and ROS were back as were his running FH/BH.

            No where during his grand slam run did he have to play in three matches in slightly over 24 hours against very good opponents including warm ups, cool downs and media commitment so no one can say how he would have fared under such circumstances and as such is equally subjective.

            Your opinion is that it would not have taxed him during his Grand Slam run. My opinion is not the same. I think it is plausible that he would have similarly struggled.

            If Rafa had to do that, and he lost in the final, at any point in his career, I believe that we would have given Rafa the benefit of the doubt and would have opined that Rafa would have won if not exhausted.

            Difference of opinions. That said,

            #NoleIsBack

          • Hello Mary, I’ve posted time and again about Djoko’s game, so why should I repeat myself again when talking about this ’cause and effect’ issue??

            It’s precisely because I’ve analyzed his game that’s why I said he’s not back yet, and because he’s not back yet, he isn’t able to win important titles! Meaning, I expect him to be able to win big titles when he’s truly back, and that’s what I expect from a champ!

          • Hawkeye,

            I didn’t single you out in a bad way. I just want to know what’s underneath this particular narrative holding such importance that it gets flogged every day?

            We disagree. But that’s not a problem, imo. Really we agree more than disagree on much more important topics than this. And I do like to tease you – I apologize for nudging you on this. Here’s what I think: When Rafa wins la Decima, most all of us will feel great relief and joy.

          • Well it felt like a bad way that you singled me out and this was just all one way trafficcform me.

            RC, you’ve never been disrespectful to me so it wouldn’t bother me if/when we have a difference of opinion. Although you don’t agree with my opinion that #NoleIsBack, you are not disrespectful of my opinion.

            I don’t bring it up as much as others do. Sure I put it in hashtags, but I only do that for fun. Don’t know why it upsets everyone so much.

            They should just do what Lucky does and ignore it. ?

            It’s all so silly anyways LOL.

  35. Yeah, what happened to Sasha? Verdasco is playing well no doubt but Sasha Zverev isn’t, by his recent standard.

    And what happened to Kei, lost a set to Kokki, who’s just back from injuries?

    • I can’t believe that Nishi lost a set to Kokkinakis! What is up with that?

      Sorry to see Sascha out. Maybe he was somewhat tired. Nando is a savvy veteran and still knows how to play in slams, at least in the early rounds. Didn’t see this one coming, but thought some of the predictions for Zverev were too optimistic. It’s a reality check for this young man. Now he can look forward to Wimby and get some rest.

      That’s why doing well at slams is so difficult.

      • Nishikori is honestly just playing bad. He can’t get healthy. He and Raonic aren’t going to win slams ever but Raonic may have a chance because of his serve and that he is healthier in general than Kei but not by much.

          • I agree that Nishi is not playing that well. The wrist injury didn’t help either. He can’t seem to stay healthy and that is the biggest obstacle for him.

            I don’t know that he is going to go that far.

  36. So Alex Zverev (Sasha) out in R1 to Verdasco. Verdasco is always a very dangerous first round opponent, Rafa suffered in his hands too!

    • Yep, Verdasco is a real spoiler when he decides to play! That makes him dangerous opponent in early rounds but he may lose immediately his next match…

      Sasha was under huge pressure after beating Nole…too much was expected from him and he could not sustain the pressure! He is just too young and lacks experience. And he was really not up to the task, made it easy for Nando..,

      • It makes me appreciate even more, both Rafa and his coach and uncle, Toni, who prepared Rafa really well for such big occasions after winning not one but two Masters on clay in 2005 and Rafa was viewed with great expectations as fav to win the FO as an 18/19 year old despite Fed’s presence.

        • True indeed, @lucky…

          A think thIs loss to Nando and Zverev losing relatively early in MC and Madrid only to take the trophy in front of Nole’s face proves that Nole was NOT BACK in that match, otherwise he would have eaten Zverev for lunch…Rafa sure did on several occasions..

  37. Verdasco always raises his game for Slams. I expected Zverev to win, but it’s not a huge surprise that he didn’t.

      • I refer to Arthur’s second sentence. Not so much the first.

        Nando is only slightly more successful in slams last five years than in other events: 27-20 (57%) vs 109-99 (52%).

        Yes Sascha played amazing in Rome to take the title, but he went out in 3rd rnd and quarters in MC and Madrid. Rafa double-breadsticked him!

        This loss is more about Zverev still being young, unproven and not yet having the consistency needed, and less to do with Verdasco in general.

        Oh, in my opinion that is.

        • I also think Sasha made a tactical error in agreeing to suspend the match yesterday. At 20 he’s far less physically and mentally mature than Rafa was at 18. He’ll get there (I think), but he’s a couple of years away. He’s from a solid tennis family and seems quite stable as young tennis players go.

          • Yeah Ramara. I was watching and I thought it was a huge mistake as well, especially when he had the momentum. I was very surprised. Had he not agreed, play would have definitely continued. But that’s part of inexperience.

            The tournament official and the umpire should not have stopped play. There was sufficient light to play another set, and the rain was not hard enough to stop play.

            It was just bad all around.

  38. Tsonga not playing too well after a title win at Lyon; unlike Stan who managed to win in straight sets after his title at Geneva.

    • It’s ridiculous the difference between slam-CB and non-Slam-CB last five years…

      74-17 slams (81.3%).

      220-92 everywhere else best-of-three (70.5%).

      • Stan is also close to 50% (7-9) vs. big three other than Fed (2-7) since 2014. He generally plays well in all formats against the best players. I think a lot of it is mental toughness -or at least not being intimidated as most players are against those guys. Whatever it is, he lacks it against Federer.

    • Well Tsonga is now down two sets to Olive. The French crowd seems stunned. I didn’t see this one coming.

        • I remember posting a comment to the effect that I did not think Tsonga would go deep here, but no way did I see him going out in the first round!

          I wonder if he will be able to make one of his comebacks from two sets down.

          • This is ugly stuff from Tsonga. Serving for the third set he gets broken. Now it’s 5-5 in the third. Darkness is threatening to halt this match unless Olivo can close it out here.

  39. Olivo has himself to blame if he loses this match tomorrow. He’s serving for the match but can’t serve well enough to hold serve to win the match. I think Tsonga has good chance of winning the fourth set and then goes on to win in five.

    • Tsonga played an awesome game though. But yeah Olivo seemed pretty tight. This would be his biggest win. Honestly I was still pretty confident in Tsonga coming back even when he went down the break in the fourth. He will win this match and it’s because of the support he’s getting and his fight at home. Allez Jo!!

      • Olivo played poorly and Tsonga took advantage. I think nerves got to him as he was serving for the match. It’s understandable given the circumstances. It would be his biggest win.

        I am not so sure the Tsonga will win. I would like to see him do it. But he has the momentum when he broke back. He will have to come out tomorrow and immediately serve to even it up at 5-5.

      • Nny!…Hehe..i knew you’re going to like it!!…Btw…oh!don’t worry Nny!…MA will come to your rescue!…When Rafa is about to play..i will send u a very strong and delicious aromatic virtual coffee to wake u up!

        And if u still not wake up,i will send a rescue team just to wake u up!…Anything for Rafa and Nny!!Woohoo!!

          • Nny!!…yay!!You’re here at last!!…I was about to send u a special virtual coffee!!

            And since your sweetie is about to play now…let’s cheer together Nny!!…..Hip hip hooray!!!…Vamos Rafa!!Wooohooo!!

  40. What a climax. Tsonga goes out to Olivo!!!!!

    Matches don’t get more dramatic than last night’s battle in the dark and the final conclusion today. How Olivo managed to pull of the win after having to come out and this morning after having failed to close out the match yesterday will be a talking point of the tournament.

  41. This keeps happening. There is a long delay, I think a comment has not gone through so repost with the result keep creating double posts 🙂

  42. Have just realised the easiest way to check is to look in the recent comments list.

    #It’s taken a long time for the penny to drop lol

    • Indeed, he keeps this up and I might start agreeing with Hawkstradamus 😀

      He even threw in one of his signature shitty overhead smashes LOL

      First set 6-1

  43. Yeah, Novak is playing well, retrieving well. Yet he gets broken by Sousa…All Sousa does is keeping the ball in so Nole should win this easily…

  44. Sousa is definitely playing better now, but Nole is playing well the whole match…he is serving well, helps him on key points…

    • Despite that Novak gets the break. Sousa had a brain cramp. But he did do a good job to hang in there up to now.

      • There are some very tired looking shots at this point from Nole. Nice to see Andre in the box.

        Hahaha Sousa blowing a lot of opportunities and expressing himself well. This is a looong service game. Joao tried so had but couldn’t break — not for lack of chances, tho.

  45. Wawrinka, Cilic, Kyrgios, Murray and Dimitrov are all contenders if they are at their best. According to each of aboves first rounds, I can say they are all playing very well and will not be an easy task for either Djoko or Nadal.

    • @MainATP,
      At current form I think Wawa and Nick could beat this Nole. Wawa provided he raised his level as he usually does in GSs and Nick if he decided to play and doesn’t get uninterested and bored as he usually does when ithere are high expectations from him..,

  46. Phillipe Chatrier kind of magnifies Rafa’s presence on the court. It is such a big court and with Rafa’s court coverage, it must be daunting for the opponents. Rafa understands the dimensions of this court better than anyone.

  47. Beautiful dance from Rafa! Love his forehead winners! Most of his winners are pure piece of art!

    Vamos Champ!

  48. Haase is playing really well. He had 11 winners to 7 UE in the second set and he is serving pretty well. He is only trailing because Rafa is playing at a very high level.

  49. This is probably the best I have seen him hit his forehand in quite a while! He is so comfortable today. Yes, it is true that when an opponent attacks his forehand well, then that’s a different test. But in terms of consistency, variation and penetration, I would say he is hitting is extremely well.

      • Na NNY, don’t worry about that. It is good that he is playing this well early on. He needs to straight-set his opponents till the semis and have a full tank before he faces the best players.

        And, I wouldn’t say he has peaked already. There are still areas he can can improve and he will keep making incremental improvements.

        • vr,

          Thanks! I feel better! I trust your judgment when it comes to Rafa! I just think too much at times!

          Another brilliant cc backhand winner from Rafa!

  50. Rafa perhaps has the most offensive backhand CC on clay when he is in peak form. I would say it is the best CC backhand when he is hitting it this well! He can slaughter sliced balls as well.

    So, Rafole win their matches with exactly the same scoreline! haha

    Rafa’s opponent played a lot better though. I would give Rafa 9.5/10 and 8/10 to Djokovic.

  51. In th this form he is such a joy to watch. I liked Haase’s good natured humour. He was resigned to losing but kept on trying. Just the kind of workout Rafa needs in the first week.

  52. Yes I agree; Rafa playing like this is certainly a joy to watch!

    Haase trying to moon ball a bit to give Rafa a different look, probably running out of ideas when Rafa is in such mood. It’s good to see Haase never giving up and keeps trying till the end of the match, very good attitude.

    • It is a pleasure to see Rafa playing so well. I also noticed in closeups that Rafa’s got that look in his eyes! Fierce determination!

      I love seeing Rafa so sure of hImself, with such clarity of thought in how he is constructing points!

      Haase just had no answers for this Rafa! The confidence is just flowing out of Rafa!

  53. All the top 4 seeds would have played one 1 match on Suzanne Lenglen by Thu. The rest of the matches from Friday onwards would have Rafa only on PC. Rafa is very comfortable on PC and uses the court’s dimensions very well. I think they gave him SL on the first day as he is the least likely among the big 3 to crash out in R1 so PC ticket holders would still have the opportunity to watch their idol in action in the next match!

  54. My daughter has got tickets for us on PC court on Tuesday for the QFs. Have worked out, if all goes we well, will see Rafa that day but would be interested to know people’s prediction as to who he is likely to be up against.

    • I have Rafa up against Raonic in the QF – in my main FO bracket, and Dimitrov in my spare bracket. Must have been leaning toward Raonic because he has GGL and I though he’d outlast the winner of Dimitrov vs PCB, which feels like it could be a 5 set marathon.

      Might be Rafa v PCB QF. Nice.

      • I have Rafa meeting Raonic in the quarterfinals if I didn’t change it. I was not sure enough about either Dimi or PCB. But that does not mean I am right!

  55. Thanks NNY and RC. Would prefer Dimi or PCB – Raonic drives me nuts: forgive the cliche but watching him is akin to watching paint dry.

    • ed,

      You will get no argument from me regarding Raonic! I will say that he has worked hard to be a complete player, but it’s still all about that serve and then a big forehand. He doesn’t get very animated out there.

      I would prefer either Dimi or PCB as a tennis fan because there would be more long rallies and the tennis would be more enjoyable.

      You must be so excited to see Rafa!
      ?

  56. A good day for the Spaniards; if I’m not wrong, all but one of them (Robredo) get through to R3 – Rafa, GGL, PCB, ARV, RBA.

    Tomorrow, there’ll be at least one more who will get to R3 – either Ferrer or Feli.

    • I saw the last of RBA’s match with Kuku. He really had to battle it out for that one!

      But it’s nice to know that the Spanish players have done well.

  57. Nny!…Me and u got a No1 and No2 respectively on TDL…but from the bottom that is!!!…Hehehehe..kpuppy and rc awesome at the top….

    • MA,

      I know that I am doing poorly in the bracket challenge. I wish now that I had gone back and revised some of my picks for the men. I expect to do poorly with the WTA bracket. But I usually do pretty well with the ATP. Not this time!

      All I want is for Rafa to win! Then I won’t care about anything else!

      • Same for me NNY. Worst first round slam picks I think I’ve ever had. After probably my best ever in Melbourne. For crying out loud I was literally like top 5 in the world after Melbourne round one and now I’m a solid millionth or so lol. I blame the clay. I hate playing on it so I hate picking on it??

        • Benny,

          I just saw your reply! At least I am not the only one! You know your tennis, too! As I think I do! But I guess it’s just the law of averages catching up!
          ?

      • Nny!…Ohh!!..That’s okay!..don’t be too upset k?Remember,we join this just to have fun and not just testing our tennis skills..even though it’s feeling really great if we’re end up at the top,but if not…we can always try another time,right Nny?..There’s plenty of chance at the front…Okay?

        Besides,i doubt we would pick another name other than what we’re already choose…We submitted our Bracket when we felt that we’re satisfied with our picked,right?Nny..if we look at our Bracket,some of the picked that we lose was out of our control..such as Sascha,Tsonga,Delbonis,Sock,Simon,Mahut,Mischa,Medvedev,Almagro…Next time,we can discuss what we should pick and what’s not okay?

        • MA,

          Thanks! I will be fine! It’s just for fun! Can’t win ’em all!

          Those players who lost make up quite a list! Even though I did not think Zverev would go really deep, I did not think he would go out in the first round either. So that was a pick that I did intend to correct. I have gone back and changed a few after thinking about it. Not many, but sometimes I did think better of it. But most of my picks I have to stand by. If I am wrong, then that’s the way it goes.

          Heaven help me if I ever start taking myself or my picks in the bracket too seriously!
          ?

  58. I like clay court tennis when there’s mixture of defense and attacks, both shorter points and long rallies; not when there’s only long rallies after long rallies like it’s being played in the past traditionally.

    I think the clay courts are playing quicker these days, and so there are shorter rallies > longer rallies these days (looking at the stats).

    I don’t like clay court tennis to become like HC or even grass court tennis; neither do I want to see long rallies after long rallies when neither player knows how to end the points sooner. A balance of defense and attacks, and a balance of long and short points is the best going forward, on clay.

    • Completely agree with you. I love modern variable claycourt tennis. I can still remember how boring it often was a few decades ago with endless rallyes and moon balls. But so was Wimbledon! Nothing against the individual players, but some of the worst tennis at Wimby was produced by Sampras and Ivanisevic and players with a similar style. I like that nowadays players with very different styles have chances on all surfaces. Guga Kürten was one of the pioneers in that respect. While he never made it beyond the quarters in other slams, he was nevertheless quite successful beyond the red dirt. He even managed to go toe to toe with the likes of Sampras, Agassi and Safin on hardcourt, and won the Year End Championship (at the time in Lissabon) beating them all and snatching away the year-end No 1 position from Safin. Unfortunately his tall, thin and lanky frame gave in far too soon and ended his career when he was still quite young 🙁

      • I didn’t want to imply that Sampras, Ivanisevic, Becker and others played bad tennis. They were brilliant players, but especially on grass their brand of tennis often was as unwatchable as the tennis of the dirtball specialists of previous areas.

        • Murray is out of sorts again as Klizan is up a break in the fourth set.

          He was complaining to the chair umpire about a bad call. But Klizan took a page out of Fog’s book by drop shorting him a few times.

          Andy needs to calm down and get it together.

        • I agree with you that as great as those players were, it got boring watching two of them playing each other. However, watching someone like Agassi play against those big serving grass guys was awesome because of the contrast in styles.

    • MA,

      Okay, I found it! Nice to read thoughts from Tim Herman on Rafa’s quest for La Decima!

      I agree with him!

      Thanks again!
      ??

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